Thunder vs. Nuggets NBA Playoffs Game 6 Best Bet: OKC’s Depth Is Growing Up

The Thunder Are Growing Up

Many bettors have come to expect that, on the road, Oklahoma City is worth fading.

It is true that the Thunder are 0-4 ATS on the road so far. However, oddsmakers disrespect them by favoring them by only 4.5 points. For comparison’s sake, they were favored by six or seven points in their last two games in Denver. This trend, popular among Nuggets backers tonight, is all the more meaningless because of how many points they were favored by in Memphis.

OKC’s 92-87 Game 4 victory indicates its improvement on the road. The Thunder won by five while missing 31 three-point attempts. 

Several capable players underperformed in that game: Jalen Williams, for example, was 3-for-7 from deep in Game 3 in Denver, showing that he can thrive on the road, but 0-for-5 in Game 4. Likewise, Chet Holmgren shot 5-for-10 from behind the arc in Game 3 in Memphis but missed all three of his three-point attempts in Game 4.

While Denver shot poorly, too, a bad shooting performance from characteristically inefficient shooter Russell Westbrook and from his teammates is always probable in this matchup against a Thunder defense that is the NBA’s best at limiting opposing three-point efficiency.

For the Thunder to cover the spread tonight, they will simply need to shoot as well on the road as they’ve proven able to do.

Fourth-Quarter Dominance

Whereas the Nuggets finished Game 3 strong down the stretch, they began a trend in Game 4 that will help condemn them to an ATS loss tonight.

In the fourth quarter of Games 3 and 4 combined, OKC beat Denver 63-37.

The Thunder have not only improved their clutch-time abilities, but they have also proven to be significantly deeper than Denver.

Aaron Wiggins and, when his three-point shooting is on-point, Isaiah Joe are both effective offensive weapons off the bench, as is two-time All-Defensive Team selection Alex Caruso, who is most known for his on-ball defense but has scored 10 and 13 points in his last two respective games, and Cason Wallace, who delivers assists plus good shooting on offense and strong team defense.

For the Thunder to cover the spread tonight by a clear margin, they’ll only need to be within a few points of Denver by the end of the third quarter.

Denver’s Lack of Depth

Whereas, in the first round, Denver benefitted from some extra rest days, this series has been brutal for the Nuggets.

They have played every game in this series with one day of rest in between games. As it did in the second round of last year’s postseason, when they lost Game 6 against Minnesota by 45 points and Game 7 by eight points, this lack of rest is catching up to them.

Their shooting, rebounding, and ability to grab 50/50 balls decline drastically by the fourth quarter.

This problem is created by their lack of depth and exacerbated by OKC’s physical style of play.

Denver’s bench is very raw and underdeveloped. Peyton Watson, for example, who is averaging 4.8 points in 14.2 minutes per game in this series, is unproven under pressure.

Ideally, Watson could play in place of Michael Porter Jr., whose shoulder injury has him shooting 25.9 percent from deep in this series. But Watson doesn’t bring much offense, anyways. 

Defenders don’t respect Watson as they do MPJ, such that the spacing is worse with him on the floor than it is with MPJ playing because MPJ forces defenders to stick to him. 

Watson’s off-ball defense and inability to defend without fouling further make him quite useless. 

There’s Westbrook, a veteran but an aging one. He has converted all of 5 of his 27 field goal attempts in his last three games.

Who Else Is There?

Nikola Jokic lacks support. There’s Jamal Murray, but he has to deal with elite defender Luguentz Dort, who commonly receives sundry All-Defensive Team votes.

Video footage shows Dort’s ability to fight through screens, his balance, his reaction time, his strength, and his footwork. He closes out well to take away both shot attempts and drives, and applies intense on-ball pressure. He is graded as one of the best at navigating screens and, for other reasons, is an insurmountable obstacle for Murray.

In Game 5, Denver scored 105 points while getting 44 points from Jokic. When Jokic scored 42 points in Game 1, he scored all of 17 points in Game 2. I expect a similar game-to-game decline tonight because the Thunder have an elite rim protector in Isaiah Hartenstein, who excels at limiting the field goal efficiency of opposing players.

Hartenstein is a major component of OKC’s physical defense, which throughout this series has made shot-making difficult for Jokic, who in most games in this series has struggled to be efficient.

Takeaway

In Game 4, OKC improved its ability to play in Denver relative to Game 3. Led by arguably the NBA’s best player in MVP frontrunner Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, the Thunder will continue to grow away from home.

They have the benefit of a depth advantage that the absence of two-day rest periods in this series maximizes and that ensures their ability to pull away in the fourth quarter — in case they have not pulled away already.

With their combination of elite rim protection and strong perimeter defense, they are able to limit Denver’s offense to a very low total, which makes it easy for them with their shooters, their versatile scorers, and SGA to cover the spread that disrespects their capabilities on the road.

NBA Pick: Thunder -4.5 (-110) at Bovada

Thunder -4.5 (-110)

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