The college football season is on the horizon after a long and strenuous offseason. USC’s 2020 was plagued with COVID issues that limited their schedule and hurt their College Football Playoff odds. They lost in the Pac-12 Championship, and that kept them from achieving their goals.
San Jose State Spartans vs. USC Trojans
Saturday, Sept. 4, 2021 – 5:00 PM EDT at Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum
Clay Helton needs a solid season to solidify his job as the head coach. They can start with a strong performance against San Jose State. The Spartans won the Mountain West last year and are looking to win again with 19 returning starters. Former Texas A&M and Arkansas quarterback Nick Starkel returns for another year. He scored five total touchdowns in San Jose State’s season opener, preparing him for this battle against the Trojans.
USC is only favored by 14 points despite bringing back Kedon Slovis and their leader in receiving yards. They also have Keaontay Ingram coming from Texas to bring depth to the run game. They have an experienced roster and talent at key positions, but will they cover the spread in their season opener? Here are keys to cover and a prediction.
Keys for USC to Cover the Spread
The USC Trojans lost Alijah Vera-Tucker at left tackle, and the offensive line still gave up 15 sacks last season. Returning four starters is beneficial, but it will be crucial for the Trojans to keep a clean pocket in this game. Look for Bru McCoy to play a larger role as a wide receiver. He was a highly-touted recruit who has yet to produce, but he will likely start in 2021. This could be his chance to prove himself against a non-conference opponent.
Turnovers were a concern last year for USC. Slovis threw seven interceptions in six games due to his inability to extend plays with his legs. You’re not going to turn him into a running threat, so he has to make smarter decisions with when to throw the ball. Against San Jose State, you’ll only lose if you give the other team excess opportunities to even things out. That means USC has to win the turnover battle to cover the spread. You can have a game plan, but both teams have keys to win.
Keys for San Jose State to Cover the Spread
The Spartans have high hopes this year after winning the Mountain West, and an upset against the Trojans would be a great way to start the season. So, how can they do that? On defense, they have to force Slovis out of the pocket. He is not a mobile threat. If you force him to leave the pocket, he will make mistakes. Even if he gets past the line of scrimmage, he won’t be getting far. He wins the game with his arm, and attacking the pocket takes this talent away.
Nick Starkel is far from a mobile quarterback. That means he needs the running backs to handle the run game. Thankfully, San Jose State returns all rushers and their offensive line. If all you want is to cover the spread, San Jose State needs a strong start and the ability to limit touchdowns. If they can turn bad drives into field goals for USC, they can still cover the spread. It will be hard to win the red zone, but it matters for the Spartans in this game. Will they manage to do these things?
Time for a Game Prediction
USC has some question marks for the season, but they should easily win this game. Consider adding the moneyline to a parlay. However, there is no value on the moneyline by itself. The Spartans have plenty of returning players, but that doesn’t mean that they will win this game.
Pairing that with their strong performance last week gives them too much hype, impacting the spread. For my NCAAF picks, expect Slovis and the Trojans to cover at home. They should be able to contend in the Pac-12. If they can’t beat San Jose State by two touchdowns, they should be completely out of that conversation.
NCAAF Pick: USC -14 (-108) with Heritage Sports (visit our Heritage Sports Review)
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
