The WCC is usually seen as a one-team conference, but Saint Mary’s has played well in Gonzaga’s shadow this year. They are firmly in the NCAA Tournament field, and they could make some noise if they get a lucky draw.
There is a clear gap between the top teams in the WCC and the rest, and Saint Mary’s has taken advantage of that gap this season. They are 10-3 in conference play and 22-6 overall this year, and they should add a few more wins to wrap up the regular season. Can the Gaels cover the spread?
Saint Mary’s Gaels vs. San Diego Toreros
Thursday, February 24, 2022 – 10:00 PM at Jenny Craig Pavilion
The next test for the Gaels is against San Diego. The Toreros are right at .500, and their defensive struggles have limited what they can do as a team. They are firmly out of the NCAA Tournament race, but they could still shake things up with a few upsets at the end of the year.
The NCAAB odds opened with Saint Mary’s as an 11-point favorite, but it has shifted to -12 right now. Can San Diego keep things close at home? Here are keys for each team and a prediction for this game.
Keys for Saint Mary’s to Cover the Spread
Saint Mary’s has the best defense in the WCC statistically, and that should help them in this game. They are great with rebounding and can win without taking major risks. If they stay fundamentally sound, they should limit what San Diego can do offensively.
The real question is how Saint Mary’s can do on offense. With such a large spread, you need to excel on both sides of the ball to have a chance at paying out. While the Gaels have four players averaging at least 10 points, they don’t have anyone person who they turn to consistently.
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In this game, look for Saint Mary’s to find someone to feed offensively. It doesn’t matter if it’s inside the paint or on the perimeter. They just need to find the best mismatch and get one of their stars into a rhythm.
This is a challenge, but the good news is that the Gaels have options. That is more than most teams can say. Instead of turning to one stud, they can look for the best option in this specific game. As long as that person steps up in this one instance, they should win. Beyond that, they need to pick up the tempo and make free throws to cover the spread.
Keys for San Diego to Cover the Spread
San Diego’s defense has been a red flag all season, and it needs to be solved in this game. They’ll be playing at home, so San Diego does have the benefit of a friendly crowd. Still, they need to find a way to improve on defense. Whether it’s a new scheme or a new rotation, something has to catch Saint Mary’s off guard.
Also, San Diego needs to attack to get Gaels defenders into foul trouble. If Saint Mary’s has to change the rotation due to some early fouls, this game could be close in the second half.
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When you’re this much of an underdog at home, you’re just trying to be within fighting distance in the final 10 minutes. Look for San Diego to take risks offensively to try to keep up with the scoring. If they can make contested shots and more threes, they could keep this one close for long enough to cover the spread in the end.
So, Who Will Cover?
Based on principle, I can’t take Saint Mary’s on the road with this kind of spread. Too many things can go wrong, and they need everything to go right to beat a conference foe by this much.
Saint Mary’s is good enough to cover, but I could see this one being surprisingly close at halftime. Once Saint Mary’s gets into a rhythm, they might not have enough time to pull away and cover the spread.
As long as San Diego stays motivated and gets off to a strong start, for my NCAAB pick, I see them covering this spread while losing at home to the superior team.
NCAAB Pick: San Diego +12 (-108) with Heritage Sports (visit our Heritage Sports Review)
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
