NFL Running Back – Yards Props: Saquon Barkley Won’t Crack 1,500 Yards
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Scott Kacsmar
- May 31, 2025
Top NFL Pick: Saquon Barkley Under 1500.5 Rushing Yards (-125) at Bovada (visit our Bovada Review)
The NFL had a little running back renaissance in 2024 with Saquon Barkley (Eagles) and Derrick Henry (Ravens) having fantastic seasons on new teams, and they weren’t alone. Josh Jacobs had a good debut with the Packers, Joe Mixon had his moments with the Texans, and Aaron Jones was solid for the Vikings.
Teams are starting to feel a little more comfortable in spending resources on running backs again after many years of shying away from workhorses in favor of committee approaches. Some teams are still going to do that in 2025, but we like the value in a back who should get 250-plus carries and put up good yardage as long as he stays healthy, which is really the key for a lot of these over/under betting lines on yards at online sportsbooks.
With that in mind, we picked out 3 backs we like to go over their rushing yardage total in 2025, and one we are counting on to align with history and go under after his career year in 2024.
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Bijan Robinson (Falcons)
- Over/Under 1150.5 Rushing Yards
It was just a couple of years ago when we had the great debate about how high a pick a team should use on a running back like Bijan Robinson. The Falcons used the No. 8 pick on him, then split a lot of his rookie carries to Tyler Allgeier. But that was with Arthur Smith coaching the offense.
In 2024, the Falcons fed Robinson 304 carries and he turned them into 1,456 yards behind a solid offensive line. He may not have blown away Allgeier’s performance as the backup still averaged 4.7 yards per carry (4.8 for Robinson) and had almost the same high success rate, but they gave their high pick a better share of the touches.
You should count on that to continue in 2025, and there’s also a lot of reasons for optimism that the Falcons could be a better team on both sides of the ball this year. It starts with the development of quarterback Michael Penix Jr., who looked very solid in his few starts at the end of the season.
New Era in Atlanta
With a more agile passer in the backfield, that could also be a benefit to Robinson, who played with an immobile Kirk Cousins last year and was stuck with Desmond Ridder in 2023. If you think Penix is the real deal, then that means an offense that can stay on the field longer for longer drives, increasing Robinson’s yards.
Robinson had 170 yards in the season finale with Penix at quarterback, and he rushed for 94 and 90 yards in his other starts with the rookie. That’ll certainly do for hitting Over 1150.5 yards.
Also, if the Atlanta defense is better in 2025 after drafting a pair of 1st-round pass rushers, then you could see more advantageous spots to run the ball and play with the lead for Robinson to salt games away.
Something would have to go terribly wrong with Robinson’s health or Penix’s play for this back to drop over 300 yards below what he already did last year in a less-than-ideal situation.
NFL Pick: Bijan Robinson Over 1150.5 Rushing Yards (-115) at Bovada
Christian McCaffrey (49ers)
- Over/Under 975.5 Rushing Yards
This is really just a durability bet.
Christian McCaffrey has played 8 NFL seasons, and he’s rushed for over 1,000 yards in half of them. He only had 435 yards as a 2017 rookie, but that’s because he wasn’t the leading rushing threat on that team.
However, he’s had 3 injury-plagued seasons where he didn’t even break 450 yards, including last season when Achilles tendinitis in both legs limited him to 4 games where he struggled to rush for 202 yards.
McCaffrey turns 29 next week, but when healthy, we know he’s an elite back and does consistently great in this Kyle Shanahan offense that has no real choice but to be healthier in 2025 after a disastrous 2024 campaign.
Recharged & Ready
McCaffrey had many months to rehab and get ready for this moment.
He only picked up the “injury prone” label after he missed 23 games in the 2020-21 seasons combined. But he didn’t miss a game in his first 3 NFL seasons, he played all 17 games in 2022, and he didn’t miss a game to injury in 2023 when he led the 49ers to the Super Bowl.
Maybe history strikes twice and he suffers another serious injury in consecutive years, just like he did in 2020-21. But we’re going to trust that he’ll avoid that and deliver a great rebound season for a strong offense that gets to feast on one of the easiest schedules in the NFL this year in what should be a bounce-back year for the 49ers as a whole.
NFL Pick: Christian McCaffrey Over 975.5 Rushing Yards (-115) at Bovada
Kyren Williams (Rams)
- Over/Under 1000.5 Rushing Yards
The Rams have built one of the most functional offenses in the league with its leading receiver (Puka Nacua) and leading rusher (Kyren Williams) only being 5th-round draft picks. That’s a testament to what Sean McVay and Matthew Stafford have put together in Los Angeles over the years, as this team came ever so close to knocking off the Eagles in the snowy playoffs.
Williams put the ball on the ground in that game, but he still rushed for 106 yards against a stout defense. He had 1,299 rushing yards in the regular season and that’s with sitting out the final game. He had 1,144 rushing yards in 2023 when he only played in 12 games.
McVay had Todd Gurley at running back when he started coaching this team. He had Cam Akers for a good run until he was injured. He likes a workhorse and someone who consistently grinds out 90-yard games.
This offense should still be very good after swapping out Cooper Kupp for Davante Adams, who still has some big games left in the tank. The offensive line is solid, and Williams should continue to stack another 1,000-yard season for your NFL picks.
NFL Pick: Kyren Williams Over 1000.5 Rushing Yards (-115) at Bovada
Saquon Barkley (Eagles)
- Over/Under 1500.5 Rushing Yards
You can’t criticize the Eagles without getting hate from their fans, but let’s just face some facts on Saquon Barkley and what happens after a historic 2,000-yard rushing season.
None of the 8 running backs to rush for 2,000 yards reached 1,500 rushing yards the following season. Barry Sanders came the closest in 1998 when he had 1,491 yards, then he just retired out of the blue to the shock of anyone. But most finished in the low 1000-yard range, and backs like Terrell Davis (1999) and Derrick Henry (2021) were injured and missed big parts of the season.
Barkley has been fairly healthy in his career, but there are 4 seasons where he missed multiple games to injury, so you never know. Also, he had a huge workload last year with 345 carries in the regular season and 91 more in the playoffs, as he rushed for the most yards in history when you combine the playoffs.
There was an old statistical trend that running backs who had very high workloads tend to fall off the next year or are at higher risk for injury, so that’s something to keep in mind. It definitely happened to Terrell Davis in Denver in 1999.
Outlier Season or New Normal?
There’s also just the fact that 2024 was so out of character for Barkley, who never rushed for more than 1,312 yards in any season in his career before joining the Eagles. Granted, joining an elite offensive line, top-ranked defense, and playing with so many leads helped. Those are advantages that should still be present in 2025 as the Eagles have the best NFL odds to win Super Bowl 60.
But it’s not out of the realm of possibility that teams are better prepared to take Barkley away in 2025, or that a rival defense like Washington has improved to not get gashed for 150-plus yards by Barkley like the Commanders did last year when he had 146 and 150 yards in the regular season, then probably would have hit that total again in the playoffs if his hamstring wasn’t affected on an early run.
Then there’s the regression element in long runs. In 2024, Barkley had 7 touchdown runs of 60-plus yards when you include the playoffs, which smashed the single-season record in NFL history. Barkley had 4 rushing touchdowns longer than 51 yards before 2024 in his career combined. Seven in one season? That’s absurd, and it doesn’t include the one he could have had in the playoffs against Green Bay where he pulled up with the game decided.
That doesn’t mean Barkley won’t break a couple of long runs in 2025. But we’ll take our chances he doesn’t come anywhere close to as many long runs, and that can knock off a few hundred yards from his total.
The addition of a 17th game that past 2,000-yard rushers didn’t have the luxury of to hit 1,500 yards is a little troubling here. But the Eagles have also rested starters in that final game in 2-of-3 years since 2022, so there’s no guarantee he’ll have to play every game.
Finally, the odds are juiced a little to favor the under, so it’s not crazy to suggest Barkley won’t rush for 1,500 yards this year. It’s just playing the regression game with a player coming off a historic career year that looks like an outlier in his overall body of work.
NFL Pick: Saquon Barkley Under 1500.5 Rushing Yards (-125) at Bovada
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
