Pacers vs. Knicks Game 2 Best Bet: New York Will Bounce Back

Key Trend 

Tonight’s game will be decided by New York’s proven ability to bounce back after a loss.

In this year’s playoffs, the Knicks are 4-0 ATS after a loss.

It might feel strange to trust a team that lost to cover a six-point spread. But consider that the Knicks led by 14 points with under three minutes to go in the game. 

One of my key claims to support a Knicks play tonight is that the fact of their late big lead shows that they are capable of beating the Pacers by double digits. 

An understanding of what took place in those final three minutes will support this claim. It is not the case that the Knicks simply ran out of gas and had nothing left to give. 

What Happened In Those Three Minutes 

It is extremely improbable for a team to lose a 14-point lead in less than three minutes. It is even improbable for a team to have its lead shrink in half in so little time.

For that to take place, one team has to be unbelievably clutch, and another team has to make awful mistakes.

First of all, improbable shot-making enabled Indiana to cover the spread in Game 1. The team as a whole shot beyond itself, as evident in its unusually high three-point conversion rate, but Aaron Nesmith was particularly ridiculous. He converted eight of his nine three-point attempts, with many of those makes coming in the waning minutes.

In addition to the Pacers shooting better than we should expect them to shoot tonight, the Knicks’ defense was very bad in preventable ways.

When New York built its big fourth-quarter lead, Deuce McBride helped it play great defense. The final score conceals the potential for New York’s defense to allow a vastly lower point total in Game 2 and not simply for the reason that Indiana’s shot-making will decline.

Deuce Locked Up Haliburton

McBride’s ability to limit the field goal efficiency of Pacers point guard Tyrese Haliburton was a proven thing even before the game began.

With a nice lead, it still would normally have made sense for New York’s coach to sub in his starting point guard Jalen Brunson, who is a superstar in part because of his ability to close out games.

However, in Game 1, this happened to be a bad decision because the Knicks needed defense. They did not need Brunson’s scoring. Brunson could not give them any defense, because he was playing with five fouls. Key defender OG Anunoby also had five fouls.

The threat of fouling out rendered New York’s defenders impotent.

With better defense, which one must expect from the Knicks because one must expect their players not to foul as much, they will protect the double-digit lead that they will again attain tonight.

Turnovers and Miscommunication

New York can have an even bigger fourth-quarter lead tonight by avoiding turnovers.

Turnovers played a crucial role in Game 1. The Knicks were up 14 with a few minutes to go even though they lost the turnover battle against a team that, as the stats show, is not particularly good at forcing turnovers — they rank outside the top ten in the category.

One can’t expect the Pacers to amass 27 points off turnovers and outscore the Knicks by 23 in points off turnovers.

Moreover, one has to expect better communication from the Knicks on defense. Miscommunication contributed to mistakes that New York’s ball-screen defense made, which obviously does not indicate that they were too tired. They lost because they made preventable errors.

Gas in the Tank

New York played lax with its lead. Skeptics might insist that they were too tired, but we know that the Knicks can play sufficiently hard against Indiana for four quarters because we saw them against Detroit.

Like Indiana, Detroit plays at a high tempo. Among playoff teams, the Pistons rank one spot behind the Pacers in pace.

Tonight’s key trend — that New York is 4-0 in this postseason after a loss — is something that the Knicks contributed to twice against Detroit.

The Knicks advanced past Detroit because Detroit’s fast tempo failed to fatigue them.

New York is a well-conditioned group that, healthier than last year’s version, gets key bench minutes especially from its backup point guard and its backup center.

New York’s Scoring Will Remain High 

The Knicks’ offense has always been sharp and productive after a loss.

They already thrived in Game 1, scoring 125 points in regulation, despite missing a lot of free throws and despite underperforming from behind the arc relative to their significantly higher year-long three-point conversion rate.

On offense, the Knicks are powered by their top scorers, who will continue to dominate.

Indiana still does not have someone to guard Karl-Anthony Towns with. They tried Myles Turner. The Pacers also tried Pascal Siakam to a small extent. But Towns’ field goal efficiency when guarded by Turner was very high, and it was perfect when guarded by Siakam. Thomas Bryant, Turner’s backup, obviously can’t help.

Because the Pacers lack an answer for Towns, he has scored 35, 40, and 30 points against the Pacers in his last three games against them.

Brunson Can’t Be Stopped

Indiana also can’t limit Brunson, who scored 43 points in Game 1 despite making only one three.

With even average days from Brunson and Towns’ teammates, who benefit from the attention that Indiana’s defense has to devote to New York’s top scorers, the Knicks will have no problem exceeding 120 points again.

So far in this postseason, the Pacers have been a dominant Game 1 team. Relative to Game 1, their defense allowed 17 more points in Game 2 against the Bucks and seven more points in Game 2 against Cleveland.

After collapsing at the end of Game 1, New York will continue to keep its foot on the gas pedal to attain a superb point total.

It might feel strange to go against an Indiana team that won and is now dogged by as many as six points, but a larger margin of victory is easier for a team to achieve when it scores so many points.

Takeaway

Indiana’s shooting will decline for sure, but the Knicks will also play better defense with guys avoiding foul trouble, avoiding lapses in communication, and avoiding turnovers on offense.

New York’s offense will be even sharper with better shot- and free throw-making. Indiana lacks an answer for Towns and Brunson, with the latter also getting his teammates involved.

The Knicks have proven that they can be strong for all four quarters even against up-tempo teams. They are glad to run with the Pacers. Angered by their avoidable collapse, they will maintain a double-digit lead through the end of Game 2 tonight.

NBA Pick: Knicks -6 (-113) at BetOnline

Knicks -6 (-113)

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