NHL Playoff Picks for May 9: Toronto Faces Tough Test on the Road
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Eric Kelly
- May 9, 2025
NHL Pick: Toronto Maple Leafs ML (+190) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
Tonight’s NHL betting card features two playoff matchups. In the Eastern Conference, the Toronto Maple Leafs travel to Florida for the first time in the series, hoping to take a 3-0 lead heading into Game 4.
Meanwhile, in the Western Conference, the Winnipeg Jets host the Dallas Stars for Game 2 of their series, looking to even things up before heading on the road for the next two games.
Toronto Maple Leafs vs. Florida Panthers
Friday, May 09, 2025 – 07:00 PM EDT at Amerant Bank Arena
Toronto Can Win Despite Underdog Label
It’s been a tough start to this second-round series for the Florida Panthers, losing both road games by just one goal.
With that being said we are eyeing up a Toronto victory tonight. This is not because we believe they will win, but because we just can’t ignore their moneyline odds tonight, as we see a lot of value at +190 NHL betting odds.
Toronto comes into this game with a strong form on the road. However, they have also lost in 5 of their previous 6 visits to the Amerant Arena. Interestingly, recent trends between these teams have seen their games go under the total. However, both games of this series have seen 7 and 9 goals scored.
Toronto vs. Florida Trends & Facts
- Toronto is 5-1 in its last 6 games on the road.
- Toronto is 11-2 in its last 13 games.
- Florida is 5-1 in its last 6 games when playing at home against Toronto.
- The total has gone Under in 12 of Florida’s last 17 games against Toronto.
The Pick
As we already stated, the Florida Panthers are the home team here and arguably should come out as the winner. However, only a crazy person would lay -200 on them to beat Toronto.
We expected to see the Maple Leafs moneyline odds in around +130 at the very max, so to get +190 seems too good to be true. Betable down to +130 in our opinion.
NHL Pick: Toronto Maple Leafs ML (+190) at BetOnline
Dallas Stars vs. Winnipeg Jets
Friday, May 09, 2025 – 09:30 PM EDT at Canada Life Centre
Jets Must Win the Game
Last time out, it wasn’t the start the Winnipeg Jets were looking for, as they came out on the losing side yet again, meaning the Jets are now 4-4. Having struggled to get past the St. Louis Blues by the skin of their teeth, the Jets hopped to turn things around last time out, but it wasn’t to be with a 3-2 loss.
The Jets absolutely need to win this game their season will look pretty bleak, as they face the prospect of back-to-back games in Dallas. Although their loss on home ice was only the second loss at home in their previous 10 games, their road form hasn’t been the best in the playoffs, having gone 0-3 thus far.
Dallas vs. Winnipeg Trends & Facts
- The total has gone Over in 5 of Winnipeg’s last 6 games.
- The total has gone Over in 4 of Winnipeg’s last 5 games against an opponent in the Western Conference.
- Dallas is 5-2 in its last 7 games.
- The total has gone Under in 5 of Dallas’ last 5 games when playing on the road against Winnipeg.
The Pick
We’re not prepared to get involved with the winner of this matchup, as this game could go either way. Currently, the Jets are -115 while the Stars are +100 at the top-rated sportsbooks.
Despite the total going Under in all five previous meetings between these teams when played in Winnipeg, we’re backing tonight’s game to go over the total and are willing to lay some juice to do so.
While both teams are naturally more defensively minded—and the Under is certainly a viable outcome—we believe this game could be the one where the series explodes into life. Our computer model is predicting a 4-3 Winnipeg win. If the Jets do come out on top, we think the game goes over. If the Stars win, it likely stays under. Either way, we won’t complain if it goes over and we cash at -115. We wouldn’t look to lay any worse than -120.
NHL Pick: Stars/Jets Over 5.5 (-115) at BetOnline
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
