NHL Best Bet for May 22: Hurricanes Must Win Tonight

Game 1 Didn’t Go To Plan

With a four-day rest advantage and home ice advantage, the Carolina Hurricanes didn’t make either of those pay last time out as they got well and truly beaten by last year’s Stanley Cup Champions 5-2.

The matchup really did come down to the goaltender matchup.

To make matters worse, the Hurricanes had a total of 33 shots on target compared to the Florida Panthers’ 20, but it all came down to the hot goaltender, and right now, Sergei Bobrovsky is on fire. Overall, Bobrovsky was given a 7.6 match rating compared to his counterpart, Frederick Anderson, who was only given a 5.3 match rating.

Coming into the game, Anderson had only allowed 1.8 goals per game thus far throughout the playoffs compared to Bobrovsky’s 2.40 per game. Bobrovsky has now gone 9-4 throughout these playoffs, while Anderson has gone 7-3. On top of this, Bobrovsky has gone 5-1 in his previous six games.

Carolina Must Win To Stay Alive

The Florida Panthers are one of the best teams in the league with a game lead and a series lead, especially a two-game series lead heading back to Florida. There is a very realistic possibility the Panthers might sweep Carolina if they don’t tie the series up at 1-1 tonight.

The Hurricanes didn’t do much wrong in game one, they just ran into a very hot goaltender, hence the reason the sportsbooks have juiced them even more tonight than they were in the previous game (they were -125 on the moneyline in game one).

Florida & Carolina Trends & Facts

• In 81 games with shorter than -130 moneyline odds this season, the Hurricanes have been victorious in 52.
• Florida has secured an upset victory 10 times when playing as the underdog on the moneyline this season (in 18 games as the underdog).
• The Panthers have six wins in games when their odds are +110 or longer on the moneyline (in nine opportunities).
• The total has gone over in 9 of Florida’s last 11 games.
• Carolina is 5-1 in its last 6 games at home.
• The total has gone under in 4 of Carolina’s last 6 games.

The Pick

It’s incredibly hard to pick the winner in tonight’s game. We do believe the Florida Panthers represent some nice value at +130, and we would bet them down to as low as +120 (if you believe they can win). Despite the odds being decent, we don’t fully trust the Panthers to replicate Game One, and tonight’s matchup should be much more of a struggle, even if they should come away with the win.

We really have no interest in laying the -130 betting odds on the Carolina Hurricanes; we are giving them the edge tonight, but would prefer to bet them at around -115, maybe -120 at a push.

We are siding with the under in this game tonight. The Hurricanes ran into a hot goaltender and a hot offence last time out, but having seen the footage from Game One, we believe the Hurricanes will have an answer for the Panthers’ offence tonight and although Bobrovsky might not be as hot as he was in game one, we still believe this game can go under the 5.5 total.

The stats and trends are leaning towards the under in this game, no quarter will be given tonight, and we are predicting a 3-2 victory for the Carolina Hurricanes, similar to our computer’s prediction of 4-2.

Look to take the under 5.5 goal line tonight, but don’t lay any more than -115 betting odds.

NHL Pick: Under 5.5 (-110) at BetOnline 

Under 5.5 (-110)

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*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.