Last week, we went 1-2 against the number in our NFL picks, with the Giants getting tossed around as they usually do by the Commanders and the Steelers getting a 34-32 victory over the Jets, yet we got edged by a hook as we laid 2½ freaking points.
Honestly, I almost bet Pittsburgh on the moneyline, but if ifs and buts were candy and nuts, what a fine, fine Christmas we’d have. I always tend to dwell on my losses, but yes, we had an ATS winner as well, with the Cardinals barely getting it done via a 20-13 win over the Saints and covering the 6-point impost for three units.
Time to Bust the Books
I am told the allure of this column is that I’m a handicapper who talks with you and not at you. Unlike some in the industry who claim to know it all and are never wrong, I walk this treacherous path right alongside you, and the only claim I make is that we normally win money at the end of the season because I do my homework and trust my instincts.
Other than that, I’m just here to consider all opinions and hopefully share some insight with you. I also have some sharpies who reach out to me on X, like Gaby in Las Vegas, who advised me last week to take the under in the Titans/Broncos game. Winner, winner, chicken dinner!
Okay, so let’s get off the schneid and get back to busting our bookmakers!
- Swinger’s 2025 NFL Record: 1-2 ATS (-2.61 units using a 1-to-5-unit system) @SwingeratBMR
Swinger’s NFL Best Bets
Rams vs. Titans +5½
In case you missed it, the Rams defeated the highly touted Houston Texans, 14-9, while the Titans fell to the Broncos, 20-12. What do you make of that? Did Matthew Stafford’s back act up, or is the Texans’ defense really that good? I’d make a strong case for the latter.
As for the Titans’ eight-point loss, it was due mainly to poor offensive line play and inept receivers. Although No. 1 draft pick Cam Ward wasn’t great, he wasn’t as disastrous as some people have accused him of being. However, we should note that although the Titans had an opportunity to take a lead when they were down 13-12, the game was never that close.
Denver had four turnovers, but they gained nearly 200 yards more than Tennessee. Did you read that? Yeah, the Broncos gained almost 200 yards more than the Titans, who ended with 133 total yards. This week, the Tennessee offense will have its hands full again with another savage defense. Only, surprise, surprise, Matthew Stafford is a Super Bowl champ, and he knows how to torture anemic defenses like the Titans possess.
The only reservation I have in this one is that the Rams may be looking ahead to their date with the Eagles next week in the City of Brotherly Love. But I’ll swallow hard and dial down my wager to 3 units.
Expert Pick: Los Angeles Rams -5½ (-106) for 3 units at BetOnline
49ers vs. Saints +3
This line in this game has dropped like a prom queen’s panties at a frat party. Brock Purdy is among the walking wounded, and it appears as though backup Mac Jones will be slinging for the Niners. Mac Jones is a good quarterback who was ruined by the Patriots. Under his only real offensive coordinator in New England, Josh McDaniels, Jones made the Pro Bowl in his rookie year.
The 49ers still have plenty of talent, including a healthy Christian McCaffrey. This is not so much an endorsement of the injury-riddled 49ers that will also be without George Kittle, Jauan Jennings, and Brandon Aiyuk, but a fade of the putrid New Orleans Saints.
As an aside, if you’re into DFS leagues, Ricky Pearsall should have a monster game, as he will be Jones’ prime target, who will be without many aerial options. But more importantly, San Francisco’s defense should have its way all afternoon with the Saints’ woeful offensive line. Nick Bosa is licking his chops as we speak.
Expert Pick: San Francisco 49ers -3 (-108) for 4 units at Heritage Sports
Panthers vs. Cardinals -6½
There are a few things that bother me about this game. First, the line is a tad higher than I’d prefer. And second, this is the third of three favorites in my NFL best bets in Week 2, which makes me feel like a bit of a square.
However, what assuages my concerns is that the Panthers are battling with the Dolphins as the worst team in the league. Once again, the fade train is on and is making a stop at State Farm Stadium in Glendale, Arizona, where the Panthers will be going through the motions as they did last week in their 26-10 loss to the lowly Jaguars.
I bet on the Cardinals last week even though Kyler Murray had tummy issues, but he is ready to rock this week, and rock he shall against a pitiful Panthers’ defensive unit. As I stated last week, Arizona was 7-1 versus bad opponents last year, and now that they defeated and covered against the Saints, we can say that this streak has extended to 8-1.
The Carolina Panthers certainly qualify as a bad opponent, and it is likely this streak continues and the Redbirds are 8-1 versus bad teams after this one is through.
Expert Pick: Arizona Cardinals -6½ (-112) for 3 units at BetOnline
The Woodman’s Corner (0-0 ATS)
The Woodman was out of the country last week, wrestling bears in Kazakhstan, and was incommunicado. However, he’s back on friendly soil and has not one, but two NFL picks for you to make up for the one he missed last week.
Without further ado, the Woodman has advised all his acolytes to bet the proverbial farm on the Giants +6 (-108) at Heritage and the Bucs +2½ (-104) at BetOnline.
Start a New Sportsbook Account
The Week 2 NFL odds I posted today don’t stay stagnant forever. The odds, point spreads, and totals are dynamic, which means the point spreads you see written here on the Rams, 49ers, and Cardinals may not be around by gametime.
Therefore, it is important that you get the sharpest line available, and the only way to do that is to get down immediately on the games and make sure you have an active account.
That’s right, make certain your account is funded, and perhaps get accounts at two or more sportsbooks so you can compare the numbers. Shop around, dare to compare, and make sure to get down at a place you trust and at the best offshore lines or odds available.
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
