NFL Steelers – Player Props: The Aaron Rodgers Show
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Bookmakers Review
- June 11, 2025
Top NFL Pick: 2025 Steelers Under 8.5 Wins (-120) at Bovada (visit our Bovada Review)
The Pittsburgh Steelers rolled the dice on Aaron Rodgers all offseason, and at the very least, he’s signed with the team in June and expects to be their starting quarterback for the 2025 NFL season.
But to say this team had a solid plan in place would be an overstatement. The Steelers made history when they became the 1st team since the merger to completely replace their quarterback room before the draft in consecutive years, banking on Rodgers would sign with them.
They also let go of their leading rusher (Najee Harris) and wide receiver (George Pickens traded to Dallas) while making a splash trade for D.K. Metcalf (Seahawks) to at least give Rodgers one reliable wideout. But they didn’t bother drafting Shedeur Sanders in April and waited until the 6th round to pick Will Howard from Ohio State.
It’s basically Rodgers or bust for Mike Tomlin and company as they try to end this 8-year drought without a playoff win, their longest since the merger.
Let’s look at some of the best player props available now at top-rated sportsbooks for the Steelers in 2025, building up to their team props like their season win total and chances to make the playoffs.
Best NFL Player Props Betting Sites
| SPORTSBOOK | TRUST SCORE | BONUS | ONLINE SINCE | Bet Now |
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55% Cash Bonus
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2001
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20% Cash Bonus
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2001
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$750 Cash Bonus
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1994
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$250 Free Bet
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2001
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$500 Cash Bonus
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1985
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$500 Cash Bonus
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1983
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Aaron Rodgers
- Over/Under 23.5 Passing Touchdowns
Aaron Rodgers is approaching rare territory as he attempts to finish this season as the most prolific 42-year-old quarterback not named Tom Brady in NFL history. In fact, Rodgers threw 584 passes last season at 41, which is already more than any other non-Brady quarterback in a player’s 40s in NFL history.
He made it through a full season last year despite some really tough patches and a lack of mobility that won’t get any better in Pittsburgh. But if you look at his career as a starter, he’s played 17 seasons and got through 14 of them relatively injury-free. He had the collarbone fractures in 2013 and 2017, then tore his Achilles on opening night in 2023. Other than that, he’s been a reliably durable quarterback.
Rodgers has also thrown at least 25 touchdown passes in all 14 of the seasons that weren’t heavily affected by a serious injury. He threw 28 last year and had some of his best games down the stretch as he got further along in his recovery from the Achilles suffered in September 2023.
Red Zone Weapons
The Steelers got 21 touchdown passes out of the duo of Justin Fields and Russell Wilson last year, but we know Rodgers, who has over 500 passing touchdowns in his career now, is better at doing this than they are. He also won’t be running in scores the way Fields (5) and Wilson (2) had 7 of those plays too.
DK Metcalf gives Rodgers a good size target in the red zone as that’s where he loves to strike with his wideouts for easy touchdowns. He also has a big tight end in Darnell Washington that the Steelers should utilize more, and he’ll help the other receivers get better too. Offensive coordinator Arthur Smith once got 33 touchdown passes out of Ryan Tannehill (2020 Titans) even with Derrick Henry in the backfield.
This is a check on Rodgers’ durability as much as his ability, but the over on Rodgers at a scant total of 23.5 feels like the way to go for your NFL picks.
NFL Pick: Aaron Rodgers Over 23.5 Passing Touchdowns (-115) at Bovada
D.K. Metcalf
- Over/Under 950.5 Receiving Yards
You have to wonder if Metcalf is happy or sad that he didn’t get to play with Russell Wilson in Pittsburgh after their Seattle connection. But the Steelers are going with Aaron Rodgers, and that’s really a great thing for Metcalf’s ability to produce this season.
Rodgers has always been a WR-centric passer, and he can usually support multiple receivers posting big numbers. With the Jets last year, he helped Garrett Wilson to 1,104 yards, and Davante Adams, his BFF, had 854 yards in 11 games after a mid-season trade from the Raiders.
The Steelers should throw the ball a little more with Rodgers in town, and even Mason Rudolph is capable of getting a big target like Metcalf the ball. Metcalf has gone over 950.5 yards in 5 straight seasons, and he has little competition around him as the Steelers’ other wideouts are Robert Woods (washed-up veteran) and Calvin Austin (very inconsistent). Rodgers is not big on throwing to tight ends, so don’t expect Pat Freiermuth to suddenly take a huge leap.
As with any player prop, injury is the big concern. But barring that, Metcalf should be in store for a 1,000-yard season in Pittsburgh with Rodgers throwing him the ball.
NFL Pick: D.K. Metcalf Over 950.5 Receiving Yards (-115) at Bovada
2025 Steelers Regular Season Wins
- Over/Under 8.5 Wins
The 2025 Steelers currently have the following odds at Bovada for their season win total:
- Over 8.5 wins (-110)
- Under 8.5 wins (-120)
These odds have shifted a bit this week with the signing of Rodgers, as the under was getting -140 to -150 odds. The Steelers haven’t had a losing record since 2003, and they can set the outright record with a 22nd-straight non-losing season this year.
However, the schedule is very tough with the Ravens and Bengals having better odds in the division. The Steelers were only 3-3 in the AFC North last year. They also have to play the Vikings in Ireland, the Chargers on a Sunday night, they host the Bills, and they’ll be in Detroit in December. You know Rodgers will be amped up to host the Packers in Week 8 just as you know the Jets would love some “revenge” against him in Week 1 at MetLife Stadium.
But if you look at a common theme in Pittsburgh, this team tends to struggle down the stretch, and the late-season schedule in 2025 is definitely set up to add to this collection of nose dives for Tomlin:
- 2018: Steelers started 7-2-1, finished 2-4, and missed the playoffs
- 2019: Steelers started 8-5, finished 0-,3 and missed the playoffs
- 2020: Steelers started 11-0, finished 1,-5 and lost in wild card
- 2023: Steelers started 7-4, finished 3-,3 and lost in wild card
- 2024: Steelers started 10-3, finished 0-,5 and lost in wild card
The defense is relying on a lot of older players like T.J. Watt, Cam Heyward, and new corner Darius Slay. But it’s a quarterback who turns 42 in December who may not be playing his best when the weather gets worse, the field gets sloppier, and the hits pile up on Rodgers.
The Steelers should challenge it until the last weekend of the season, but let’s go with the streak ending this year as they finish 8-9, a losing record.
Given that type of record, that won’t be good enough for the playoffs, so we also like the -160 odds at Bovada for the Steelers to miss the postseason this year.
Regular Season Picks:
- 2025 Steelers Under 8.5 Wins (-120) at Bovada
- To Make the Playoffs – Pittsburgh Steelers – No (-160) at Bovada
2025 Steelers – Exact Division Position
At BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review), you can bet on the exact position the Steelers will finish in the 2025 AFC North. These are the current odds:
- 1st (+500)
- 2nd (+200)
- 3rd (+155)
- 4th (+375)
With the Steelers finishing no better than 8-9 by our estimation, this might be the best value on their season outcome to pick them to finish in 3rd place.
The Ravens and Bengals should still battle for the division with Baltimore having the superior team thanks to a loaded offense led by Lamar Jackson and Derrick Henry, and their defense is still considerably better than Cincinnati’s.
If the Bengals don’t sign their pass rusher (Trey Hendrickson) soon, this might be a pick to reconsider. But it’s hard to imagine the defense gets any worse from last year, and it’s hard to imagine the team starts 1-4 again with an easier schedule. They should come out on fire after knowing they ruined their chances in September last year, and they still have the firepower to win 9-plus games and finish ahead of Pittsburgh.
Cleveland is favored to finish last as well as contend for one of the worst records this year. The Browns have a real quarterback dilemma as they have to sort out Joe Flacco, Kenny Pickett, Dillon Gabriel, and yes, Shedeur Sanders. No matter which player they pick, it doesn’t feel like a winning formula for a team that finished 3-14 last year.
Also, Pittsburgh hasn’t finished last in a division since 1988. They already finished 3rd in the AFC North in 2022 and 2023. Let’s pick that to happen again in 2025.
NFL Pick: Exact Division Position – Steelers – 3rd (+155) at BetOnline
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
