Two of the top passing offenses in the country will face each other when Nevada takes its 5-1 record to 5-2 Fresno State for a key Mountain West Conference game. Nevada has won three straight and is tied with San Diego State atop the conference at 2-0, while Fresno is 2-1 in the Mountain West. With that said, let’s look into the NCAAF odds and the best online sportsbook for this game.
Nevada Wolf Pack vs. Fresno State Bulldogs
Saturday, October 23, 2021 – 07:00 PM EDT at Bulldog Stadium
The Wolf Pack averages 363.3 yards per game by air, which ranks No. 3 in all of FBS. The Bulldogs aren’t that far behind at 353.1, good for No. 7 in the country.
Fresno State’s passing defense appears to be more up to the challenge of facing a top 10 offense. The Bulldogs allow 183.3 yards per game by the pass, which is 20th best in FBS. Nevada gives up 244.3, which ranks No. 93. However, the Wolf Pack has the sixth-best turnover margin in the country, while Fresno’s negative turnover margin is tied for No. 89.
Strong Pass Game
Nevada’s passing attack is led by quarterback Carson Strong, who has thrown for 1,990 yards this season and has 16 touchdowns against just three interceptions. He threw six touchdowns in a blowout of New Mexico State two weeks ago, the most by a Nevada quarterback since 1995.
His 377-yard day and half dozen scores earned him conference offensive player of the week honors. It was his second weekly award of the season—he also earned it in the opening game win over Cal.
Strong has three receivers who have more than 350 yards on the year, led by tight end Cole Turner (34 catches, 403 yards, 4 touchdowns). Turner had 12 catches for 175 yards, both career highs, in last week’s win over Hawaii, earning him Senior Bowl National Player of the Week honors. Romeo Doubs (26, 387, 2) and Melquan Stovall (28, 365, 1) round out the receiving attack.
Kicker Brandon Talton and running back Toa Taua have also been honored by the Mountain West in the conference’s weekly awards this year. Taua is averaging 65 yards per game and has scored four touchdowns this year.
On defense, the Wolf Pack relies on the big play. Nevada leads the country in sacks, with 27. Tristan Nichols has eight, which is the most of any pass rusher in the nation. Nine other players have recorded at least one.
New Look
Fresno State beat Wyoming last week, getting a shutout on defense in a 17-0 victory. The win was very different from the style of play the Bulldogs have had up until that point this season. The passing game took a back seat. Jake Haener, who was fourth in the country in passing at 371.7 yards per game, had just 96 yards in the game, the first time since 2015 Fresno State has been held below 100.
Part of the change in approach may be that Haener has been battling injury for much of the year. He took a hard hit in the week four loss to UCLA and wore a protective boot for much of Fresno’s bye week earlier this month.
"He’s probably not 100 percent, just to be real honest”, coach Kalen DeBoer said.
Instead, Fresno relied on its defense, which had four interceptions and recovered a fumble. Running backs Jordan Mims and Ronnie Rivers also combined for 151 yards on the ground to help make up for the lacking passing game.
“I think that’s a sign of a great football team is finding different ways to win - whether it’s offensive or defensive like today with the shutout, or if it’s with the pass game or run game,” DeBoer said. “There are things we got better at today that will carry over.”
The Pick
Haener will have to be on top of his game to keep pace with the Nevada offense. If he’s still hobbling, it could be a long day against the Wolf Pack pass rush.
For your NCAAF pick, look for Nevada to post a key road win.
NCAAF Pick: Nevada +3 (-110) at Intertops (visit our Intertops Review)
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
