NCAA Basketball Best Bets for December 14: San Diego Gets Defensive in Fresno
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Rainman M.
- December 14, 2024
Top NCAAB Pick: San Diego +5.5 (-110) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
The sportsbooks have released their betting odds for Saturday’s college basketball action.
Two games, in particular, interest me as worth investing in: Arizona State vs. Florida and San Diego vs. Fresno State.
Please note that the Sun Devils and Gators are playing in Atlanta.
Arizona State Sun Devils vs. Florida Gators
Saturday, December 14, 2024 – 03:30 PM ET at State Farm Arena
Florida’s Improvement on Defense
Todd Golden, Florida’s head coach, has made adjustments to his defense that are proving effective. Whereas the Gators ranked 94th in defensive efficiency last year, they rank 31st in the category this year.
They do continue to prioritize their three-point defense. Every year under Golden, the Gators devote themselves to limiting opposing three-point attempts. In their last three seasons, they have ranked 13th, 36th, and 26th, respectively, at limiting the rate at which opponents attempt three-pointers.
Changes in Defensive Approach
Their continued success in this respect is impressive given Golden’s major adjustment. Last year, Florida’s defenders stayed pinned to potential shooters behind the arc, which resulted in opponents sometimes being able to drive more easily to the basket because they faced negligible resistance from Florida’s defense.
This season, the Gators are helping more on drives. The increased aggressiveness of their help defense explains why they have improved 123 spots in their two-point defense relative to last year.
It might seem unusual that their perimeter defense should remain so successful given their increased willingness to help inside. But the successfulness of their perimeter defense makes sense when you consider how frequently strong drives lead to three-point attempts — because the player driving the ball can use the threat that he poses when driving to the basket to kick the ball out to a teammate behind the arc.
Key Personnel Changes
Personnel changes have also made a significant difference. Advanced statistics show that newly acquired center Rueben Chinyelu is doing a great job of limiting opposing field goal efficiency at the rim. Having him as a rim protector is making it easier for the defense to protect the rim while maintaining its focus on guarding the perimeter.
Overall, the Gators are still able to defend would-be three-point shooters while they improve their interior defense.
Why This Matters
Florida’s stout perimeter defense is a critical factor against Arizona State.
On offense, the Sun Devils rely heavily on three-pointers. They attempt them at the 95th-highest rate.
Their offense will be uncomfortable going against a team that does such a great job of limiting opposing three-point attempts.
Arizona State’s second-lowest scoring output this season (68 points) came against a Saint Mary’s team that shares Florida’s devotion to running teams off the three-point line, so there is a precedent for expecting Florida’s defense to thrive.
Florida’s Electric Offense
But unlike Saint Mary’s, Florida has one of the nation’s best offenses. The Gators rank seventh in offensive efficiency. They have scored over 80 points in eight of their nine games so far.
In the one exception, they scored 75 points and still won by 17 points thanks to the stoutness of their defense. Video footage shows the impressiveness of their ball movement on offense.
In one possession you can see a backdoor cut, and then the cutter might swing the ball back to a player behind the three-point line, who’ll pass it to a teammate, and then another teammate will run to a different spot behind the perimeter, where he’ll receive a pass and hit an open three.
It is a very fluid offense that is balanced with its combination of inside scorers and three-point shooters and that is also enhanced by floor-spacers like their efficient three-point shooting power forward/center Alex Condon.
Arizona State conceded 88 points to its one real test so far, Gonzaga, but also 89 to Cal Poly. So I don’t see a basis for expecting Florida’s offense to struggle at all with Arizona State’s defense.
The Pick
Florida’s electric offense is going to deal another blow to Arizona State’s vulnerable defense.
Whereas the Gators will attain a high-scoring output on offense, their defense will shut down Arizona State’s three-point-oriented attack.
NCAAB Pick: Florida -9 (-110) at BetOnline
San Diego Toreros vs. Fresno State Bulldogs
Saturday, December 14, 2024 – 07:oo PM ET at Save Mart Center
Fresno State’s Mess of an Offense
Under coach Vance Walberg, the Bulldogs want to run a dribble-drive offense.
But Walberg simply does not have the personnel for the offense that he wants to run. This offense requires guards and forwards who can beat their man off the dribble and score, guys who have the vision to drive inside but then locate open teammates behind the arc, and efficient three-point shooters.
Key Offensive Issues
They have none of those three things. Instead of beating their man off the dribble or finding teammates behind the arc, guys will be determined to play hero ball, to drive inside and attempt a shot even while surrounded by defenders instead of passing to a wide-open teammate. Mykell Robinson, for example, is guilty of doing this against Santa Clara. Overall, Fresno State’s players frequently drive inside and miss layups or shots super close to the basket.
Instead of passing the ball to a teammate, guys will be selfish and heave difficult, step-back threes while being well-defended, instead of passing the ball. You can see an example of this happening in the beginning of Fresno State’s game against BYU.
Overall, the Bulldogs rank 342nd in three-point efficiency, so it sort of makes sense why they don’t trust each other enough to pass the ball. But they also take ridiculous shots with alarming frequency.
Pressure
Both offenses are going to look awful also because of the pressure that the opposing defense will apply.
Fresno State and San Diego both rank in the top 80 at forcing turnovers. Video footage illustrates their inclination to press. Both teams will guard a ball-handler for the length of the court.
Neither team has the ball-handling quality or the quality of ball movement to counter a pressure-heavy defense. A point guard is supposed to stabilize his offense with reliable ball-handling and distribution, but San Diego’s point guard Kjay Bradley is a freshman with an extremely high turnover rate. Fresno State’s freshman point guard has the same problem.
Why I Like the Under
I really like the “under” for this game because we don’t have the problem — for “unders” — that is normally associated with turnovers. With turnovers, an “under” bettor will worry that turnovers lead to easy baskets for the team stealing the ball.
But statistics show that both teams are great at preventing steals when on offense and specialize, on defense, specifically in forcing non-steal turnovers. So, expect to see players throw the ball out of bounds and commit turnovers in ways that do not lead to quick or easy points for their opponent.
Both offenses will struggle because pressure will cause them to fail to find a rhythm.
NCAAB Pick: Under 151.5 (-110) at BetOnline
Why I Like San Diego More
I like the “under” because both teams will look sloppy and will fail to shoot efficiently, especially behind the arc.
But I also like the Toreros to prevail because they are the underdog but are primed to do a better job of defending the interior. They have a potent interior defense. They will deny dribble hand-offs, switch on ball screens, and swarm players driving to the basket in order to prevent easy paths to the hoop.
You can see these things take place six to seven minutes into their game against Portland State. These things help explain why the Toreros rank over 100 spots better than Fresno State in two-point defense.
Besides their scheme, they also have effective shot-blockers inside where bigs like Santiago Trouet and Steven Jamerson II flex their height and high shot-blocking rate.
Takeaway
This will be an ugly affair in which San Diego, with its stronger interior defense, will prevail as the underdog.
Both teams will be sloppy, turning the ball over too often and bricking ugly shots that they shouldn’t be taking, but the Toreros have the more effective rim protection and interior defense despite being the underdog.
NCAAB Pick: San Diego +5.5 (-110) at BetOnline
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
