NBA Playoffs Best Bets for May 27: Can the Knicks Even the Series Tonight?

Brunson Takes a Backseat, KAT Takes Over

When the Indiana Pacers had a 55-35 lead with 3 minutes left in the first half, I thought this series was over and that the Pacers were on their way to the NBA Finals. “Not so fast”, said the New York Knicks as they recovered and ended up getting the crucial victory to keep their season alive.

One interesting fact from the game is that Jalen Brunson played his lowest minutes in the series so far. Brunson only played 30 minutes and was on the bench for a significant portion of the fourth quarter. In that period of time, the Knicks were led by Karl Anthony-Towns. Towns had 24 points and 15 rebounds including many crucial buckets during the 4th quarter comeback.

Knicks Found Some Grit Without Brunson

Pacers head coach Rick Carlisle mentioned that with Brunson being on the bench with foul trouble, the Knicks team played tougher defense and that their offense was stifled by the “defensively-focused” lineup.

Will New York Knicks head coach Tom Thibodeau dial back the minutes for Brunson and focus on the defense in Game 4? Or was this simply an aberration, and will the Knicks go back to their usual strategy? This is one of the huge questions going into this game, and how Tom Thibodeau and the New York Knicks decide to handle this situation could very well determine this series.

Normally, teams shoot better at home, but the Indiana Pacers were a woeful 5-25 from behind the arc in Game 3, which is only a 20% 3-point percentage. It is safe to say that the Pacers will need to improve on that if they are going to get the win tonight.

Tony Bradley Getting Run Over Mathurin?

Another surprising result in Game 3 was Tony Bradley playing more minutes than Bennedict Mathurin. Mathurin has been huge for the Pacers over the last two seasons, and his inability to be effective in the minutes that he is playing has made it tough for Pacers head coach Rick Carlisle to justify continuing his ample playing time.

However, Mathurin is one of the Pacers’ most influential players, and the Pacers will need him to play a crucial role if they are going to close out this series. How does Carlisle handle Mathurin’s struggles? Is the game too important? Can they not afford to let him work through these problems? Or will Carlisle recognize that they will need a Mathurin in order to advance and play him more minutes even though his production has not justified that?

If Benedict Mathurin is able to make a bigger impact in Game 4, it would be a huge bonus for the Pacers and would help them find success.

I was surprised to see late money come in on the New York Knicks in Game 3 after losing two games at home, but the late money was correct. This line opened at -3 and was bet down to -1.5 in favor of the Pacers.

Tonight’s game is sitting at -2.5. Will there be more late money on the Knicks tonight? The market was correct for Game 3, will they predict the right side again? Keep an eye on late line movement to see which way the market is trending for this game.

The Pick

The Indiana Pacers will bounce back after their tough loss. They proved they are a better team than the New York Knicks in the first two games, and they got a little bit overconfident in Game 3. Also, I don’t expect the Pacers to shoot so poorly again. The Knicks are in a conundrum regarding their star player.

Do they dial back the minutes for Brunson? If they do not, the Pacers should be back to their running and gunning, high-scoring ways. If the Knicks do choose the more defensive based lineups, can Karl Anthony-Towns continue his success?

Towns’ career has been littered with inconsistent performances, looking like one of the best players in the league on certain nights and then disappearing and being completely ineffective on others. It seems a lot to ask Towns to carry the offensive load every single night in the playoffs.

The Indiana Pacers are on their way to the NBA Finals just as we thought during the first half of Game 3. It’s just going to take them a little longer to get there. The Pacers will respond to this challenge with a good performance and a win. Take the Indiana Pacers.

NBA Pick: Indiana Pacers -2.5 (-108) at Bookmaker

Indiana Pacers -2.5 (-108)

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*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.