NBA Playoffs Best Bets for May 4: Golden State’s Experience Is Decisive

Indiana Is Underrated 

The odds do not reflect how good Indiana is.

Indiana started the regular season 10-15. Since then, the Pacers were in terms of wins and losses close to even with the Cavaliers.

Moreover, the Pacers form a cohesive unit with impressive playoff experience.

While they were swept by Boston last year, anyone who watched that series knows how competitive the games were, coming down to the final few minutes, to the final phase during which Indiana — as evident in its series-clinching win over Milwaukee — is now much better at executing.

Three of those four losses to the eventual champs came by five points or fewer. The Pacers’ regular season success this year reiterates what that series against Boston showed: that they can compete with the best teams.

Cleveland is going to be surprised by Indiana’s quality of play. The Cavaliers haven’t played a real game in a while. Miami was a play-in team with a squad that was undermined by the departure of its best player Jimmy Butler. Relative to the Heat team past which Cleveland strode with ease, Indiana will represent a significant step-up in competition.

Guarding Donovan Mitchell and Darius Garland

For Indiana, Andrew Nembhard grades as an excellent defender. He excels, for example, at guarding the perimeter in isolation and at navigating ball-screens.

During the regular season, he spent around nine minutes guarding Cleveland’s Donovan Mitchell. Nembhard held Mitchell to 3-for-8 from the floor.

For Indiana’s two earlier games against Cleveland, Nembhard did not have the benefit of playing alongside Aaron Nesmith, who is commonly tasked with guarding the opposing team’s best perimeter player and will have an even larger length advantage over his man than Nembhard will.

While Tyrese Haliburton is generally reputed to be a weak defender, Indiana will hide him on defense by having him guard Max Strus, who is the weakest offensive player in Cleveland’s starting lineup.

Haliburton will be able to play off of Strus and help disrupt the passing lanes, which he is good at doing, as evident in his large number of steals.

Tyrese Haliburton’s Scoring and Playmaking 

Indiana’s offense is filled with guys who ably get their own basket, but its most important player is arguably its point guard, Haliburton.

Haliburton is the prototypical playmaker. As Donovan Mitchell and especially notoriously bad defender Darius Garland will find out, he is hard to keep out of the lane — even Giannis couldn’t keep Haliburton from blowing by him for a game-winning layup.

While Haliburton can be an effective scorer, his primary instinct is to get his teammates involved. In his team’s opening series, he accumulated 11.6 assists per game.

Five-Out Offense

Indiana’s floor-spacing will be significant for the outcome of its offensive endeavors.

One crucial floor-spacer is center Myles Turner.

Turner’s success in operating along the perimeter will draw his counterpart Jarrett Allen away from the basket.

The respect that Turner commands especially behind the arc (although he is also a momentous rim-attacker) and the discomfort that Allen has extending to the perimeter on defense will aid his teammates, especially Haliburton. In the playoffs, Indiana’s highest scoring outputs have almost always coincided with Haliburton’s.

Turner has a strong history in Game 1s — against the Bucks, for example, he made four of his six three-point attempts. A strong Game 1 output from Turner will thus in many ways help lead to a high point total for the Pacers.

Pascal Siakam and Myles Turner

Pascal Siakam is a vital part of Indiana’s offense. In the regular season, Siakam played two games against Cleveland in which his counterpart Evan Mobley also played.

In those two games, he was 8-for-16 and 8-for-14, respectively.

Look for Indiana to replicate the offensive adjustments with which Orlando, later in its series against Cleveland last year, found success. The Magic isolated Mobley, which is just what Indiana can do to Cleveland. Benefitting from his team’s spacing, Siakam can and will thrive against Mobley in isolation.

Siakam is also a well-known defender, who, in tandem with the shot-blocker Turner — who has been among the NBA’s leaders in blocking shots — will win the frontcourt battle for Indiana today. 

Indiana’s Deep Bench

Indiana’s bench also deserves respect.

In Game 6 against Milwaukee, for example, Obi Toppin, Jarace Walker, and T.J. McConnell combined for 40 points.

Bennedict Mathurin did not play in that game, but he averaged 16.1 points per game in the regular season.

The Pacers — and this further explains their solid record in the last months of the regular season — have a very deep team that will continue scoring a lot when their starters rest. 

Takeaway

Indiana can compete with anybody — we learned this fact in last year’s postseason, forgot it early in the regular season, and should remember it now.

The Pacers match up well with Cleveland from the standpoints of both personnel and scheme.

Their guards and bigs will win the backcourt and frontcourt battles, respectively. Their bench will maintain productivity. 

Expect a strong Indiana performance that should compel oddsmakers to give the Pacers more respect going forward.

NBA Pick: Pacers +8 (-112) at BetOnline

Pacers +8 (-112)

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NBA Pick: Pacers Over 110.5 Points (-115) at Bovada (visit our Bovada Review)

Pacers Over 110.5 Points (-115)

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NBA Pick: Myles Turner Over 14.5 Points (-110) at Bovada

Myles Turner Over 14.5 Points (-110)

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Golden State Warriors vs. Houston Rockets

Sunday, May 04, 2025 – 08:30 PM EDT at Toyota Center