NBA Playoffs Best Bets for May 26: Can the Timberwolves Even the Series?

After the Oklahoma City Thunder made a statement in the first two games in the series, the Timberwolves showed their mettle with the biggest margin of victory so far in the series.

The Timberwolves hope to gain momentum. If they can get a win tonight, it becomes a three-game series and the Timberwolves can use some of that momentum and winning strategies heading back to Oklahoma City.

Live by the Three, Win by the Three

After the Timberwolves failed to shoot above 30% from 3 in the first two games, the Timberwolves found their shooting stroke with 50% from behind the arc in Game 4.

The Thunder were 50% from three and 57.3% total on their field goals. This was in stark contrast to the Oklahoma City Thunder, who were only 14-44 for a 31.8% three-point percentage. Although this is not a groundbreaking statement, the three-point shooting will probably determine the winner tonight. Can the Timberwolves continue to shoot lights out? I would think that it is a possibility with the home court advantage.

Role players always shoot better at home. After getting excellent three-point shooting from Donte DiVincenzo and Naz Reid, it is safe to assume the Timberwolves can continue this torrid offensive streak.

The Thunder have not been strangers to winning on the road, however. Minnesota displays an impressive 32-8 on the road this season. They will look to build upon the reputation they have made as Road Warriors.

Foul Line Tells All

Much was made of the free-throw whistle given to this season’s MVP, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. He went to the line 14 times in Game 1 and 15 times in Game 2 in Oklahoma City. The whistle in Minnesota was less friendly, as he only had four free-throw attempts in Game 3.

If the referees do not acknowledge and call the fouls when Gilgeous-Alexander tries to bait the fouls calls, the Timberwolves will have a much better chance of tying the series. Still, I would not be surprised to see if the refs continue to favor Minnesota tonight. The league does not want this fascinating series to end incredibly early.

From Benched to Ballin

Julius Randle was huge in the first two series the Timberwolves won, but was off to a slow start in Oklahoma City. He still recovered his form with 24 points on 9-15 from the field. However,  the Timberwolves are going to need a strong performance from him the rest of the way if they’re going to have a chance to win this series.

Randle was so bad in Oklahoma City that he was benched in the fourth quarter of Game 2, but he has already returned to his All-Star level form in Game 3. Randle’s box score could easily determine the winner. A good box score will mean that the Timberwolves most likely win. If Randle struggles, however, Oklahoma City will most likely take the 3-1 lead.

Hot and Cold

While Julius Randle is the key for the Minnesota Timberwolves, Jalen Williams will be the player to watch for the Oklahoma City Thunder.

He has been inconsistent in this postseason, which is not uncommon for a player of his experience level. Against Denver, the team went as he went. In the games in which he disappeared, the Thunder lost; when Jalen Williams showed up, the Thunder won. It is safe to say that Jalen Williams will be the key piece to watch for the Thunder tonight.

The Pick

I like the Minnesota Timberwolves to continue their home cooking. They showed the potential they have when the team is firing all cylinders at home, and I think the refs will continue to make things tough on Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and the rest of the Thunder team.

The Minnesota Timberwolves are 5-1 ATS against the Oklahoma City Thunder over their last six games. The Timberwolves regained confidence in Game 3 and continued to use the size advantage to win the rebounding battle. In the playoffs, especially the conference championships and beyond, defense and rebounding are what win the game. The Timberwolves will ride their rebounding edge to another home-court win.

The NBA will be happy when this series gets extended. Take Anthony Edwards and the Minnesota Timberwolves to win game 4.

NBA Pick: Minnesota Timberwolves ML (+130) at Bookmaker

Minnesota Timberwolves ML (+130)

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