NBA Playoffs Best Bets for May 24: Minnesota Gets Sharp at Home

Oklahoma City Is Not Unbeatable

The Thunder are a popular bet tonight for obvious reasons: they won Games 1 and 2 by double digits. However, a bet on the Thunder tonight does two bad things.

One, it disrespects the extent to which things repeatedly change from one game to another in a playoff series.

Two, it overlooks the nature of playoff betting. Bettors have to recognize that a playoff series consists of rematches only in the most superficial sense. While teams play against each other over and over again, the exact situation changes every time. As such, each game in a playoff series has to be bet on its own terms. Regarding tonight, one can’t simply expect the Thunder to win because they won Games 1 and 2.

Bad Spot for the Thunder

We’ve seen the Thunder behave in two series so far. We know from these series that the Thunder decline in general on the road and with a lead in the series on the road.

In Game 3 of the first round, they were down by 29 points and won after a Memphis player exited the game due to an injury. The Thunder won Game 4 in Memphis by all of two points, again failing to cover the spread.

Memphis’ ability to play the Thunder close in Games 3 and 4 — even without its best player — is remarkable because the Thunder had won Games 1 and 2 by a combined total of 70 points. Bettors like the Thunder tonight because of how superior they have looked, but they have not even looked remotely as superior as they did in Games 1 and 2 against Memphis.

Inconsistency on the Road

To continue my point: last series, against the Nuggets, the Thunder lost Game 3 in Denver, scored 92 points in Game 4 in Denver — that was a tight affair despite it being a bounce-back affair for the Thunder — and, with a one-game series lead, lost Game 6 in Denver by twelve before they showed the same dominance at home that they have shown in this series by blowing out the Nuggets in Game 7.

Oklahoma City’s offense must be expected to suffer a dramatic decline tonight and, in alignment with its history in this postseason, to mount a series-worst offensive performance.

Overall, on the road and up in fact by two games in the series, the Thunder are huge fades tonight.

NBA Pick: Timberwolves +3 (-108) at Heritage Sports (visit our Heritage Sports Review)

Timberwolves +3 (-108)

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Minnesota’s Offense Will Improve

The Timberwolves had their once-in-a-series offensive clunker in Game 1. Impressively, they scored 103 points in Game 2 when Julius Randle finally had an off day and when the team continued to shoot as poorly as it did from behind the arc.

Minnesota Poised to Surge at Home

They will win tonight because, whereas OKC will fall well below the 114-point total that they attained in Game 1, they will blow past 103 points with a better game from Randle, who scored 28 points in Game 1 while converting 69.2 percent of his field goal attempts, and with better shooting in general.

It is well-known that role players tend to shoot better at home, that Minnesota has generally efficient shooters, and that Anthony Edwards has underperformed tremendously from behind the arc so far.

In Game 2 on the road, the Timberwolves missed 14 open three-point attempts and twelve wide-open ones. So far through two road games, the Timberwolves are missing 17 wide-open three-point attempts per game and 10.5 open ones.

Regression to the Mean Is Coming

One has to expect Minnesota’s three-point shooting to improve, because the Timberwolves have been one of the most efficient teams all year from behind the arc.

Whereas the Thunder season-long three-point conversion rate declines by three percent on the road, Minnesota’s year-long three-point conversion improves significantly at home.

Naz Reid, in particular, has been unbelievably bad. While he found success creating his own shot and attacking the interior, he again failed to make a three. His three-point conversion exceeded 43% in both of the first two series in this postseason, though, so he is sure to improve and to give what is a deep Minnesota team needed productivity from its bench.

Matchup-Specific Signs of Hope

To get into the X’s and O’s a bit, and thus to show that Minnesota’s success tonight will be more than a product of alterations in shooting percentages, the Timberwolves have a lot to build off of when they outscored the Thunder 32-25 in the final quarter of the last game.

Their smaller lineup emphasized the value of ball movement against a defense that focuses on swarming opposing ball-handlers. With enhanced quickness, they were able to attack the basket and accumulate free throws at a much higher rate. As Minnesota has shown, good ball movement defeats a swarming defense by getting it out of position.

Balanced Attack Inside and Out

This is huge: we already know that the Timberwolves will improve from three; we can also expect them to thrive inside the arc.

Randle voiced similar thoughts about his own game: he stood around and was too passive in Game 2, with the result being that he spent a lot of time on the bench. A prideful player like Randle who has been so solid in this postseason is going to respond to being benched by proving his worth as an effective scorer.

On defense, the Timberwolves will demonstrate why they have one of the highest-ranked defenses per defensive rating. This is a well-organized and well-disciplined group that does a good job of remaining organized and maintaining crisp rotations while focusing on a single player. In particular, they will limit Thunder offensive centerpiece Shai Gilgeous-Alexander by swarming him.

Overall, the Timberwolves will dictate their preferred tempo at home. They will slow the game down to make an Oklahoma City team that wants to run-and-gun uncomfortable on offense. We saw in the latest stages of Game 3 in the second round in Denver, for example, how out-of-rhythm and flummoxed OKC’s offense can appear in a half-court game.

Takeaway

With their backs against the wall, the Timberwolves will come out firing. They will thrive on offense both inside and outside the arc by attacking and creating shots inside especially via quick actions and crisp movement and by being more efficient from behind the arc. Support will come from their efficient bench players.

On defense, they will benefit from a slower game, as they dictate pace on their home floor, from their ability to remain organized while blitzing Gilgeous-Alexander, and from OKC’s repeated tendency to decline offensively in road games.

NBA Pick: Thunder Under 109.5 Points (+110) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)

Thunder Under 109.5 Points (+110)

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*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.