NBA Playoffs Best Bets for May 18: Oklahoma City Will Assert Its Dominance

Motivation and Necessity

The Thunder are heavily favored to become champions for good reason: they are elite on both offense and defense. My point here is to say that superior teams often slack off, creating a false perception of them, before they assert their dominance when it matters most.

This is true across sports: last year, for example, the Dodgers fell behind 2-1 in their first playoff round against San Diego before shutting down the Padres in the final two games.

We saw this in the NBA when the Knicks were blown out in Game 5 before dominating the Celtics to close their series out in Game 6 at home.

Regarding this series, we can’t let Game 6’s outcome deter us from being just as confident in the Thunder as we would have been if Game 6 hadn’t happened.

Thunderous Responses

The Thunder, this year, gave away Game 1 against Denver. Needing to win their next game to avoid going down 0-2 at home, they blew out Denver in Game 2 with a 43-point victory.

After a loss, OKC has proven to be reliable. Despite their tendency to underperform on the road, they bounced back from a Game 3 loss by beating Denver by five. Their offense struggled anomalously, but they held the Nuggets to 87 points.

They will play with the level of urgency that they always do after a loss. Plus, expect them to receive a significant boost from playing at home.

It Comes Down to Making Shots

In Game 6, the Thunder missed 14 open three-point attempts and 14 wide-open three-point attempts. They thus rewarded Denver for daring them to shoot. Likewise, in Game 4, the Nuggets held the Thunder to 92 points largely by relying heavily on a zone defense.

When the Thunder don’t shoot well, then they make it easy for Denver to stick to a zone, which has the added benefit of keeping a Denver team that lacks depth well-rested.

Any argument made in favor of the Nuggets in Game 7 has to rely on the claim that OKC will shoot poorly from behind the arc again. However, empirical data refutes this claim.

In the regular season, the Thunder were fifth-best at making open three-point attempts and one of the better teams at converting wide-open three-point attempts.

Decisively, they get a tremendous boost when they play at home. Whereas they rank tenth overall in three-point percentage, they rank fourth in three-point percentage at home. Their 38.2% three-point conversion rate at home would be second-best overall if it were an overall statistic.

SGA and Company

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander was targeted by Denver’s zone. He struggled in Game 4. Since then, he has figured the Nuggets’ defense out. In Game 5, he converted 52.2 percent of his field goal attempts. In Game 6, he converted 68.8 percent of them.

He scored over 30 points in both of those games. His mid-range prowess helps make him an effective weapon inside the arc against the zone.

Of course, he remains a great distributor. Expect him to get his teammates involved, because it is hard for defenses to focus on limiting SGA’s scoring inside and still to manage to hinder his teammates.

At home, Luguentz Dort has proven all year to be extremely efficient from behind the arc. Jalen Williams, Chet Holmgren, and Alex Caruso are other examples of efficient Thunder three-point shooters who can be counted on, especially at home.

The Thunder scored 107 points in Game 6, with Williams having one of his worst games. But don’t forget that he scored 32 points in Game 3. Per defensive rating, Denver has had a subpar defense all year, and it lacks the personnel to account for him.

Denver Won’t Keep Pace

The Nuggets’ three-point shooting efficiency declines dramatically on the road. Away from home, their three-point conversion rate is 35.6%, which would place them at 21st if it were an overall statistic.

They scored as many points as they did in Game 6 because Christian Braun and a random bench player had exceptional performances. Braun has yet to produce good back-to-back games in this postseason, and Denver’s bench features young players who cannot be counted on under pressure, plus a continually unproductive aging Russell Westbrook.

To have a chance to compete in this game, they’ll need their best players to have great games, but Nikola Jokic has to contend with Isaiah Hartenstein’s elite rim protection, and Jamal Murray will be hounded by OKC’s top perimeter defender, Dort. Different metrics justify the strong reputation that Hartenstein and Dort have for their defense.

Denver’s Game 7 History

The Nuggets’ lack of depth makes them hard to trust in the playoffs.

Last year in the second round, the Nuggets got two days of rest before playing Game 7 against Minnesota at home. They still lost 98-90.

This year, they are even more banged-up. Michael Porter Jr’s injured shoulder is impacting his capacity to be efficient. Aaron Gordon is listed as ‘questionable’ with a hamstring injury.

With OKC having the personnel to limit Denver’s two best scorers, one must expect the decline that the Nuggets’ offense experiences after a strong output to be more dramatic than usual.

Takeaway

We can’t allow Game 6, where the Thunder continued to underperform on the road and visibly lacked motivation because they knew that they’d get to play Game 7 at home, to conceal the dominance that they have shown all year and throughout the postseason.

They have the superior depth, the superior shooting, and the superior defense. The Nuggets will want to play zone, but the Thunder, at home with their collection of efficient shooter,s will punish their zone. Yet Denver lacks the on-ball defending talent to limit SGA man-to-man — he will continue to dominate as a scorer, and he will get his teammates involved.

OKC’s combination of on-ball pressure and elite rim protection, and the lack of worry that it will need to devote to Jokic and Murray’s supporting cast, will lead to a very low scoring output for the Nuggets.

Just like other superior and elite professional teams in sports, we will see a dominant Thunder team that is done playing around exhibit its full potential.

If you’re looking into player props, Dort’s three-point makes “over” and Holmgren’s point total “over,” with his Nuggets counterpart banged up, makes sense to me. However, OKC’s offense is too stacked for me to invest in any single player.

Top NBA Pick: Thunder -8.5 (-110) at BetOnline 

Thunder -8.5 (-110)

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