2026 NBA MVP Candidates: Who Has the Edge?

While it’s largely a two-person race, sportsbooks are still accepting bets on four NBA MVP candidates. Here’s why each one could come away with the award.

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Oklahoma City Thunder

The case for Gilgeous-Alexander is the most straightforward: He’s the best player on the NBA’s best team. Nine times out of 10, that’s all you need to do to be named Most Valuable Player.

Of course, it’s more nuanced than that. Gilgeous-Alexander’s consistency is remarkable – he broke Wilt Chamberlain’s long-standing record of consecutive 20-point games this season, and he’s still going – and he’s in the midst of his fourth straight season averaging at least 30 points per game. He’s sinking a career-high 55 percent of his field goals, too. 

And while the Thunder are stacked, it’s worth noting that Gilgeous-Alexander has had less help this year than usual. All-Star teammate Jalen Williams has missed more than half the season with various injuries, and starting center Isaiah Hartenstein was absent for more than 30 games.

Gilgeous-Alexander has dominated from the start of the regular season through the end, even as Oklahoma City has had a massive target on its back. He might not be the most exciting choice, but he’s the favorite for a reason.

Victor Wembanyama, San Antonio Spurs

Wembanyama is easily the most intriguing candidate in this race. The emerging face of the NBA, the 7-foot-4-inch center has been unstoppable on both ends of the floor, playing with remarkable efficiency on offense while completely neutralizing opposing teams’ ability to score. He doesn’t just block shots – he prevents players from even attempting them.

Through games played on April 1, the 22-year-old is averaging 24.7 points, 11.5 rebounds, 3.0 assists and a league-best 3.1 blocks in just 29.2 minutes per game. He’s also shooting close to 51 percent from the field and 35 percent from 3-point range, highlighting his alien abilities.

All the while, Wembanyama has vastly accelerated the Spurs’ timeline, elevating a team that went 34-48 in 2024-25 to a genuine title contender in 2025-26. San Antonio has gone 26-2 since Feb. 1 and ranks inside the top four in offensive and defensive efficiency. Impressively, the Spurs sit just two games behind the Thunder in the Western Conference standings.

There’s no historical comparison for what Wembanyama is doing right now, though the Golden State Warriors’ broadcasters summed it up best in saying the Spurs had Bill Russell on one end and Kevin Durant on the other – but it’s the same guy. He’s the undisputed Defensive Player of the Year and could easily win MVP as well. 

Luka Dončić, Los Angeles Lakers

It’s safe to say that Dončić’s first full season in Los Angeles has been a success. Still just 27, Dončić has drastically elevated the Lakers’ performance down the stretch of the regular season, averaging 36.8 points, 7.9 rebounds and 7.4 assists dating back to Feb. 28. Los Angeles has gone 16-2 during that stretch.

If “Most Valuable Player” means most outstanding player, then there’s a good argument to be made for Dončić’s candidacy. He’s logged 16 games with at least 40 points – including one 60-point performance – and is the league’s scoring leader by roughly 2.2 points per game. 

Dončić is also immensely valuable to the Lakers. LeBron James is still one heck of a player at age 41 and Austin Reaves is averaging over 23 points per game, but Los Angeles is just 7-6 in games without Dončić this season. The Lakers would likely struggle to be a 40-win team without him, let alone the 50-win juggernaut they are now.

Dončić doesn’t bring much value to the defensive end of the floor, and the Lakers weren’t great in the first half of the season. Those are real enough arguments to make him a distant third in the race, and it’s unlikely that he gets many first-place votes. Still, he has a great chance to be one of the three finalists. 

Nikola Jokić, Denver Nuggets

Jokić is being passed over in this race for a few reasons. For one, his Nuggets aren’t especially close to the top of the league standings. There’s also the issue of voter fatigue, regardless of how fair that is. Jokić has won MVP in three of the last five seasons, and he finished in second both times he lost. At some point, voters want someone fresh in the mix. 

It’s unfortunate that those factors are playing such a big role in his candidacy, though, because he’s put together what might be his most impressive statistical season to date. He’s leading the league in both rebounds and assists per game – both for the first time ever – while averaging nearly 28 points per game on 57.2 percent shooting from the field.

Denver does finally have another All-Star – Jamal Murray earned his first nod this year, scoring over 25 points per game – but injuries to Aaron Gordon, Peyton Watson and Christian Braun have left Jokić shouldering a massive load. If there was an Offensive Player of the Year award, he would probably be the favorite.

Instead, Jokić is a distant fourth and essentially a non-factor in the race. It’s a shame that such a season will most likely earn him a fourth-place finish, but it’s been a unique season, to say the least.