NBA Best Bets for December 20: Bet On Bucks Minus Dame

Why Do You Hate Damian Lillard? 

Here we go again. I admit, past me would get all snarky about Lillard being an over-valued commodity because of his relatively poor defense. But it was never personal. Lillard is one of the most gifted offensive players in the league (plus-5.0 OBPM at Basketball Reference), and that more than makes up for his weakness at the other end (minus-1.2 DBPM). 

Just don’t expect any MVP votes from us here at the ranch. Lillard remains over-valued in the betting marketplace, as do most NBA superstars; his fit on this particular Bucks team next to Giannis Antetokounmpo is, shall we say, a work in progress.

It’s a moral imperative for us to bet on Milwaukee now that Lillard is out with a strained right calf. 

Is Khris Middleton Playing? 

In all likelihood. Khris Middleton (illness) and Antetokounmpo (knee) are both listed as probable, and even more likely to play Friday with Lillard on the shelf. The Bucks went 3-1 SU and 2-2 ATS in the four games Middleton played before he sat out Tuesday’s NBA Cup final against Oklahoma City. 

Four games is a small sample size, and Middleton (plus-1.1 OBPM, 0.0 DBPM last year) isn’t nearly as talented as Lillard, but he’s Milwaukee’s release valve when their offense gets stuck – and you don’t lose too much on defense when Middleton’s on the floor. Check out these resulting plus-minus numbers per 100 possessions: 

• Middleton: plus-7.4 OnCourt, plus-10.4 On-Off 
• Lillard: minus-1.7 OnCourt, minus-8.2 On-Off 

To be fair, Lillard was plus-7.0 OnCourt and plus-12.3 On-Off last year when he got to play alongside Middleton a lot more. And the advanced stats suggest he’s playing better this year. However, Lillard is still well below the production levels he provided the Portland Trail Blazers, and the reason is obvious: Milwaukee doesn’t need Lillard’s services as badly when they’ve already got Giannis. 

 What About the Cavaliers? 

They’ve got a few bumps and bruises themselves. Issac Okoro (plus-1.0 BPM) will miss Friday’s game with a shoulder injury, but there’s a good chance Max Strus (ankle) will step in and make his long-awaited season debut for Cleveland. Otherwise, the Cavs are pretty much set with their core players. 

This might be a good time to “sell high” on the top team in the league. Cleveland has dropped two of three ATS – again, very small sample size, but maybe an indicator that they’re losing steam. At plus-8.10 on the Simple Rating System, this year’s Cavs are performing at the highest level in the history of this franchise, save for peak LeBron James and the 2008-09 model (plus-8.68 SRS).

Regression may be in their future. 

The Pick 

The Lillard news was just breaking as I started writing this, so the basketball odds may look a bit different in your timeline. Always shop at multiple online sportsbooks so you can get the best NBA lines, hammer the Bucks accordingly, and may the sphere be with you. 

NBA Pick: Bucks +8 (–105) at Bookmaker

Bucks +8 (–105)

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*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.