NBA Best Bet for December 27: Another Orlando Magic Under

How much more damage can the Orlando Magic take? Already down their best two players in Paolo Banchero and Franz Wagner, the Magic (19-12 SU, 18-12-1 ATS at press time) swept the podium when Moritz Wagner tore his ACL during Saturday’s game in Miami.

Nevertheless, they persist. Orlando won that game 121-114 as 2-point home favorites on the NBA odds board, then took on the Boston Celtics (-9.5 away) the following Monday and beat the defending champs 108-104. This can’t be real, can it? Maybe it’s all some kind of… I don’t know, an illusion or something.

Orlando’s home stand continued Thursday with another game against the Heat, which is hours away from tip-off as we go to press – so that we can bring you the freshest NBA lines for Friday’s tilt with the New York Knicks (20-10 SU, 15-14-1 ATS), who just opened as 5.5-point road faves at BetOnline before bumping up to -6.5 in very early betting.

It could be a sharp bet. The Knicks have Thursday off after beating San Antonio 117-114 on Christmas Day, although they did drop the cash as 8.5-point home faves to snap their 4-0 ATS streak. Let’s avoid the spread altogether and hammer that total for our NBA picks this time.

Why Bet the Under?

We have more reasons that Lucy Van Pelt has knuckles. Among them: The Under is 28-22 (56.0%) over the past seven days across the league. That could be a nothingburger, or it could be a viable NBA betting trend; bodies are breaking down as we approach the midway point of the regular season.

In Orlando’s case, they’ve shed their top three offensive players according to the Box Plus/Minus stats at Basketball Reference – still completely free for you and me, as are all the advanced stats we use here at the ranch:

• Paolo Banchero: plus-5.9 OBPM
• Franz Wagner: plus-4.4
• Mo Wagner: plus-2.9

It’s a staggering drop-off from there to the next regular in Orlando’s rotation, Goga Bitadze (plus-0.3 OBPM). So what does head coach Jamahl Mosley do each time he loses a key scorer? Double down on defense. This is the strong suit for most of Mosley’s remaining players of note:

• Jalen Suggs: minus-0.8 OBPM, plus-1.4 DBPM
• Wendell Carter Jr: minus-1.2 OBPM, plus-2.2 DBPM
• Kentavious Caldwell-Pope: minus-3.2 OBPM, plus-2.3 DBPM

With these three anchoring the starting lineup, and Suggs operating one of the slowest offenses in the league at 99.9 possessions per game (No. 24 overall), the Magic held Boston down enough to cash the Under on their 214.5-point total. Maybe don’t just hand the title to the Celtics after all?

What About the Knicks?

They’re even slower than Orlando at 99.3 possessions per game (No. 27). You’re going to see Jalen Brunson walk the ball up the floor this Friday, then Suggs, then Brunson again.

Having said all that, New York does have the Over at 17-13 this year, compared to 14-17 for the Magic. But when these same two teams met in Orlando on December 15, the Under had a clear path to the pay window in a 100-91 win for the Knicks (Under 213.5). And that was with Mo Wagner scoring 32 points for the Magic.

The Pick

We haven’t seen any movement yet on this 212-point total at BetOnline as we get ready to publish, but now that the sharps don’t seem to be auto-betting the Over anymore as soon as the first NBA lines hit the board, we’re content to grab that Under now while the grabbing is good. Bet accordingly.

NBA Pick: Under 212 (-110) at BetOnline

Under 212 (-110)

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*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.