MLB Bet or Fade for May 22: The Nighttime Is the Right Time
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Jason Lake
- May 22, 2025
Top MLB Pick: Tigers ML (-140) at Bookmaker (visit our Bookmaker Review)
Welcome back to the ranch. This is our first opportunity to play the Bet or Fade game here at Bookmakers Review; Thursday’s “travel day” schedule is a bit slim as usual.
But there are three night games on the MLB odds board at press time that are worth a closer look, starting with two teams from the surprisingly strong American League Central.
Cleveland Guardians vs. Detroit Tigers
Thursday, May 22, 2025 – 06:40 PM EDT at Comerica Park
Regression Hits Cleveland
Right off the bat, we have an easy Fade call with the Guardians (25-21, plus-3.34 betting units at press time). They’re riding a wave of good fortune – or at least they were before dropping four straight. That’s regression for you; Cleveland’s minus-20 run differential is what you’d expect from a 21-26 team at this point in the season.
By the same token, we’re putting Detroit (32-17, plus-8.56 units) in the Bet bucket, but with less enthusiasm. The Tigers have a plus-81 run differential for a 33-16 Pythagorean record; they’re also third in the majors with a .310 BABIP, so that run production itself might be smoke and mirrors.
The Pick
Cleveland’s projected starter is Slade Cecconi (4.52 xFIP lifetime), the team’s No. 5-ranked prospect and still very much a work in progress. We’ll take the steadier right hand of Jack Flaherty, whose 3.33 xFIP through nine starts is a better indicator of his true performance level than that 4.44 ERA.
MLB Pick: Tigers ML (-140) at Bookmaker
Atlanta Braves vs. Washington Nationals
Thursday, May 22, 2025 – 06:45 PM EDT at Nationals Park
Don’t Buy the Sweep Hype
Again, very easy to put the Nationals (22-27, plus-1.77 units) on the Fade list, although I am biased as a former Montreal Expos fan. The Nats have the minus-47 run differential of a typical 20-29 team; are we supposed to be impressed with their three-game sweep of last-place Baltimore?
I expect something closer to what happened in Washington’s previous series, where they dropped three of four at Atlanta (24-24, minus-6.60 units). Better health and positive regression have helped the visitors claw their way back to .500 after starting the year at 0-7. Put ‘em on the Bet pile.
The Pick
Did we mention Chris Sale (3.03 xFIP) is starting for Atlanta? You know, the guy who won the National League Cy Young last year? Ah, but MacKenzie Gore (2.48 xFIP) is due up for Washington, so we’re not getting any value on Atlanta as –150 road faves. The Under will have to do instead.
MLB Pick: Under 7.5 (-110) at BetOnline
Seattle Mariners vs. Houston Astros
Thursday, May 22, 2025 – 08:10 PM EDT at Daikin Park
Long-suffering fans of the Mariners (27-20, plus-5.72 units) know it’s way too early to start celebrating their team’s success. Seattle has been mildly fortunate thus far, judging by their 26-21 Pythagorean record (plus-26 run differential) and their 9-6 record in games decided by one run. That’s a slight Fade in our books.
On the flip side, we have a lukewarm Bet recommendation for Houston (25-24, minus-2.48 units), who by no fault of their own have left two wins on the table with their plus-16 run differential (7-7 in 1-run games). I’d be a bit leery of that .262 BABIP allowed by their pitching staff (No. 4 overall), mind you.
The Pick
I’d be even more worried about Lance McCullers Jr. (6.78 xFIP) making his fourth start for Houston after missing all of 2024 recovering from flexor tendon surgery. But we’re avoiding Seattle and putting the Over in our baseball picks because George Kirby (3.53 career xFIP) is making his 2025 debut this late, thanks to inflammation in his shoulder. Bet accordingly, and may the sphere be with you.
MLB Pick: Over 8 (-120) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
