MLB Bet or Fade for June 5: Let’s Swim With the Rays Tonight
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Rainman M.
- June 5, 2025
Top MLB Pick: Rays First-Five -0.5 (-104) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
Top sportsbooks have released their MLB odds for what is a full day of baseball action.
My favorite games to bet on are: Orioles vs. Mariners, Padres vs. Giants, and Rangers vs. Rays.
For your best bets, I will recommend investing in Orioles first-five run-line, Padres full-game money-line, and Rays first-five run-line. And if you’re looking for more value picks, make sure to take a look at our YouTube channel for more daily betting advice for today, featuring the Astros vs. Pirates and Guardians vs. Yankees games.
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners
Thursday, June 05, 2025 – 03:40 PM EDT at T-Mobile Park
Baltimore’s Starter
Zach Eflin starts for the Orioles today. Eflin’s awful-looking ERA does not accurately reflect his quality as a pitcher.
His low walk rate says a lot: he is a pitcher who relies on having good precision. It is impressive how, as heat maps show, he reliably places pitches along the borders of the strike zone while he, at the same time, avoids walking many batters.
Because of his good pitch placement, it is hard to get hits off of him. His ERA is as bad as it is because he was awful in two starts.
But his form is strong at this point in time: he is coming off a dominant performance against the White Sox. In seven innings against them, he allowed zero runs and four hits.
Eflin vs. Mariners Batters
Seattle is the perfect opponent for Eflin to prolong his strong form against. The Mariners enter today’s game with very cold bats. They have scored two, one, and two runs in their last three respective games.
They already struggle against Eflin. Their collective slugging rate against him is .297. Even though Eflin does not hunt strikeouts, they have as many strikeouts as they do hits with him on the mound.
Outlook for Seattle’s Starter
Bryan Woo starts for Seattle tonight. It is very reasonable to expect Woo to concede at least three runs tonight.
Woo allowed a combined total of five runs in his last two starts, both of which came against teams that match up much worse against him than his opponent tonight does.
He has proven to be vulnerable to teams that match up well against him. The Athletics, for example, rank fifth in slugging against his pitches from righties and scored five runs against him.
Baltimore with its good team form, evident in its five-game winning streak, has a strong outlook tonight, as it ranks seventh in slugging against Woo’s pitches from righties.
Given Woo’s lackluster form and Baltimore’s matchup edge, it doesn’t make sense for the Mariners to be favored as heavily as they are.
By taking the Orioles on the first-half run-line, we only need them to be tied through five innings when with Eflin’s form and track record against Seattle’s cold batters they must be expected to lead through five innings.
MLB Pick: Orioles First-Five +0.5 (-107) at BetOnline
San Diego Padres vs. San Francisco Giants
Thursday, June 05, 2025 – 03:45 PM EDT at Oracle Park
The Odds
I find it ridiculous that San Francisco is favored given the pitching matchup.
Sure, today’s starter for the Giants Robbie Ray’s ERA looks amazing right now. But Ray has benefitted from a low BABIP (batting average of balls in play) and an unsustainably high strand rate.
For Dylan Cease, today’s Padres starter, we see the opposite.
Cease’s 4.66 ERA looks ugly, but his 3.29 FIP (like ERA but factors out fielding) shows that he is actually pitching extremely well.
He is still a highly talented and successful pitcher who amasses strikeouts and walks few batters.
The Padres Are a Great Underdog
Cease will experience positive regression, meaning his ERA will sink and align with his FIP over time.
One must expect Cease to start to experience this positive regression today because he loves facing Giants batters. Collectively, their slugging rate against him is .283. They have twice as many strikeouts as hits with him on the mound.
Cease performs significantly better against San Francisco’s batters than Ray does against San Diego’s batters. Moreover, Ray is slated to experience negative regression in that his FIP is currently significantly higher than his ERA.
In addition to winning the starting pitcher battle, the Padres will benefit from the fact that the Giants’ bullpen saw much more usage yesterday than theirs did. Whereas the Giants’ bullpen pitched 4.2 innings and deployed four different relievers, two different Padres’ relievers accumulated two innings.
San Francisco had to use good relievers to hang on in what was a maximally tight affair, but using good relievers comes at a cost to the Giants: they are 2-5 when coming off a one-run win.
San Diego has one of baseball’s top bullpens, so its relative freshness tonight will give it another strong advantage.
MLB Pick: Padres ML (+107) at BetOnline
Texas Rangers vs. Tampa Bay Rays
Thursday, June 05, 2025 – 07:35 PM EDT at George M. Steinbrenner Field
Tampa Bay’s Two Great Advantages
Texas is worth fading on the road. The Rangers are 1-7 in their last eight road games, with the one win coming by a single run against the lowly White Sox.
Their opponent tonight especially merits an investment for the first five innings because it has a strong starting pitcher edge.
Jack Leiter starts for Texas tonight. Tampa Bay ranks seventh with a .430 slugging rate against his pitches from righties.
Ryan Pepiot starts for Tampa Bay tonight. Texas ranks, by far, dead-last with a .326 slugging rate against his favorite pitches from righties.
MLB Pick: Rays First-Five -0.5 (-104) at BetOnline
Bet I Am Passing On
I was very tempted to invest in the Phillies. They have a solid track record against Toronto starter Chris Bassitt, as they slug .450 with him on the mound.
Jesus Luzardo, Philadelphia’s starter today, has a strong reputation, but he was so bad in his last start and the Blue Jays are too good against his pitches from lefties that I can’t feel comfortable investing in him.
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
