MLB Bet or Fade June 16: The Orioles Are Back in Business
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Rainman M.
- June 16, 2025
Top MLB Pick: First-Five Orioles ML (+100) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
Top sportsbooks have released their MLB odds for today’s action.
Three games, in particular, interest me as worth investing in: Phillies vs. Marlins, Rockies vs. Nationals, and Orioles vs. Rays.
For your best bets, I will recommend investing in Phillies first-five money-line, Rockies-Nationals first-five “under,” and Orioles first-five money-line.
And if you’re looking for more value picks, make sure to take a look at our YouTube channel! Today, our expert has advice on the Astros vs. Athletics and Padres vs. Dodgers games.
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Miami Marlins
Monday, June 16, 2025 – 06:40 PM EDT at loanDepot park
The Able Abel
Mick Abel starts for the Phillies tonight. He is a rookie whose beginning has been historically strong.
Since 1901, he is the only pitcher to go five or more innings and allow no walks and no more than one run in each of his first two starts.
His most recent performance, against the second-highest-scoring offense, should not distract us from his impressiveness.
The four-seam fastball is his favorite pitch. His version of it features great velocity and a lot of spin. He also throws a hard sinker and slider and a curveball that creates a powerful change of pace.
Abel vs. Marlins Batters
He’ll flex his combination of great stuff and great command against a radically softer test in the form of a Miami lineup that ranks 23rd in runs per game.
While the Marlins have looked good at the plate in their most recent games, they really struggle at home.
It is not the case that they struggle in their home venue because it is a pitcher-friendly ballpark.
If this were the case, then visiting lineups would struggle at least to the extent they do.
Whereas Miami is 4-1 in its last five games, all of which took place on the road, it is 1-7 in its last eight home games.
During this eight-game stretch, the Marlins were even swept by the pathetic Rockies. In those eight home games, they failed to exceed two runs seven times.
Miami’s Disappointing Starter
Sandy Alcantara starts for the Marlins today.
In previous seasons, he constructed a fantastic reputation for himself.
But this is a different season. Before it, he underwent Tommy John surgery, which is major. Throughout the current season, he has struggled to navigate lineups that are better than the lowly Pittsburgh and Colorado lineups that he just encountered.
He has struggled to generate soft contact and to command his pitches.
Collectively, Philadelphia batters hit .309 and slug .429 against him. Now they get a weak version of him.
MLB Pick: First-Five Phillies ML (-122) at BetOnline
Colorado Rockies vs. Washington Nationals
Monday, June 16, 2025 – 06:45 PM EDT at Nationals Park
Colorado’s Let-Down Spot
Colorado’s last game, a 10-4 win in Atlanta, might encourage the idea that it is changing the narrative of its season.
But the Rockies prove over and over again to be uniquely bad. In terms of their hitting, they average the fewest runs per game on the road.
When they anomalously perform really well, they tend to suffer a let-down and, in dramatic fashion, to fall back to Earth.
They’ve scored a combined total of three runs in the three respective games that directly followed one in which they scored ten or more runs.
Tonight’s game thus presents a superb get-right spot for Washington starter Jake Irvin, whose form had been strong before encountering more difficult Diamondbacks, Cubs, and Mets lineups.
Washington’s Impoverished Offense
On offense, the Nationals have been consistently poor.
They have failed to exceed three runs in eleven of their last 13 games. When they did reach three runs, they commonly required more than five innings to get something going.
Their outlook today is particularly poor because they match up terribly against Colorado starter Carson Palmquist. They rank 24th with a .353 slugging rate against his favorite pitches from lefties.
The wind blowing in can only help him as a heavy fly ball-inducing pitcher.
The Total
The over/under for this game expresses unjustified disrespect toward both starting pitchers.
Both Irvin and Palmquist have proven to be eminently capable at limiting run production and both enjoy strong matchups today.
The deficiencies of each team’s lineups underscore the value in the “under.”
MLB Pick: First-Five Under 5 (-121) at BetOnline
Baltimore Orioles vs. Tampa Bay Rays
Monday, June 16, 2025 – 07:35 PM EDT at George M. Steinbrenner Field
Familiarity Matters
Division rivals profit from their familiarity with Tampa Bay’s starter today Ryan Pepiot.
In six starts against fellow AL East teams, Pepiot is 1-5. The one win came against a Toronto lineup that was mired in a horrid slump.
Baltimore enters today’s game having scored 17 runs in its last two games. With their good form, the Orioles will thrive against Pepiot. They rank fifth with a .454 slugging rate against his favorite pitches from righties.
Home Sweet Home
Tampa Bay’s venue is a sort of home for Baltimore’s starting pitcher Zach Eflin.
The Orioles are underdogs in this game because they are playing on the road, and yet Eflin loves pitching in this venue. In his last start here, last August, he threw seven shutout innings. His career ERA is 2.94 in Tampa Bay.
MLB Pick: First-Five Orioles ML (+100) at BetOnline
Game I Am Passing On
I really wanted to like Seattle given the strong track record of its lineup against Boston starter Lucas Giolito. But the Mariners, especially at this price, are not worth investing in, because Logan Gilbert, their starter today, could be rusty, just like his teammate George Kirby was. Gilbert is making his first start since April 25.
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
