MLB Best Bets for May 27: Play on Plentiful Scoring in Philadelphia
-
LT Profits
- May 27, 2025
Top MLB Pick: Braves-Phillies Over 8.5 (-110) at Bovada (visit our Bovada Review)
We now have a scorching 32-16 record in our last 48 Major League Baseball picks after nailing another sweep by going 3-0 on Friday. And we are back on Tuesday for a full 15-game slate of MLB betting matchups, where we again have the three best bets that we feel have the most betting value at the current MLB odds available at the top sportsbooks.
These best bets are based mostly on our proprietary model, with our three selections for Tuesday consisting of two sides both currently at underdog pieces and one total. The first pitch for our first play tonight is at 6:45 PM EDT.
Atlanta Braves vs. Philadelphia Phillies
Tuesday, May 27, 2025 – 06:45 PM EDT at Citizens Bank Park
We are expecting a high-scoring game in a matchup of two injury plagued pitchers in hitter-friendly conditions in Philadelphia on Tuesday. Thus, we are backing the Over when Spencer Strider and the Braves visit Ranger Suarez and the Phillies.
Velocity Has Not Returned
Before getting into this matchup, it is worth noting that the ball travels well when the wind is blowing out at Citizens Bank Park. Well, that should be the case tonight with the current forecast calling for winds blowing out to center at around 10 MPH at gametime.
Moving on to the pitching matchup, Spencer Strider was one of the best pitchers in baseball for the Braves in 2023 when he went 20-5 while often hitting 100 MPH on his fastball. However, injuries limited him to just two starts last season and only two starts so far this year, where he has already had two separate stints on the injured list.
He has not had a win since that great 2023 season, having no decisions in his two starts last year and going 0-2 with a 5.79 ERA and 4.80 xFIP this season. Yes, that is in only 9.1 innings, but our bigger concern is that Spencer is mostly a one-dimensional power pitcher that has not yet gotten his velocity back. After averaging 97.2 MPH with a peak of over 100 MPH in 2023, that average velocity dropped to 96.3 MPH last season and is currently 95.2 MPH this year.
That has resulted in a slightly below average Stuff+ of 98 here in 2025 after it was 118 two years ago! The expected good hitting conditions do not help Strider’s cause, and he is facing a Philadelphia offense that is heating up after a slow start, currently owning a wRC+ of 105 against right-handers including 114 here at home.
Not Been Great at Home
The southpaw Ranger Suarez has also been limited to just four starts so far due to injury. His frontline stats look good through a limited sample of 24.1 innings, as he is 3-0 with a 3.70 ERA and 3.51 xFIP. He even has a good strikeout rate of 8.51/9, although that is accompanied by an ordinary walk rate of 2.59/9.
However, we are not so sure that strikeout rate is sustainable given his single digit swinging strike rate of 9.7% and relatively low average velocity of 92.3 MPH. Stuff+ has him at a below average 97 overall and at a weak 86 for his fastball. Also, he has not been great in his hitter-friendly home stadium so far allowing 10 earned runs in 10.2 innings.
Moreover, once Suarez departs, the Phillies’ bullpen still ranks just 23rd in the Major Leagues in ERA at 4.61.
We see this as a matchup of two pitchers that need to prove that they have returned to their pre-injury forms after not displaying much so far. Add in the out-blowing wind and bet on the Over in the City of Brotherly Love.
Predicted Score: Phillies 6 – Braves 5
MLB Pick: Over 8.5 (-110) at Bovada (visit our Bovada Review)
Minnesota Twins vs. Tampa Bay Rays
Tuesday, May 27, 2025 – 07:05 PM EDT at George M. Steinbrenner Field
This is one of our favorite kind of pitching matchups as we are expecting opposite regressions over time for the two starting pitchers. Therefore, we are betting on Taj Bradley and the Rays when they host Joe Ryan and the Twins at George M. Steinbrenner Field on Tuesday.
Lucky to Escape Hard Contact
Joe Ryan looks to be having a career year on the surface, as his 4-2 record is accompanied by a 2.68 ERA and 3.43 xFIP, each of which would be a lifetime best if maintained. And to be fair, he does have a legitimately great K/BB ratio of 10.58/1.26 per nine innings. Our concern, however, is what has been happening when he is not striking people out.
That is because he currently owns a career-worst hard contact rate of 34.1% that is higher than his weak groundball rate of 33.6%, which is a combination you never like to see. He has minimized the damage so far by scoring highly in the Luck Stats, with a low .231 BABIP allowed and a high 85.8% strand rate. We do not think either of those figures are sustainable, so we expect the ERA to rise as they stabilize.
And Joe is now pitching in a minor league hitter-friendly stadium while Tropicana Field is under construction following hurricane damage. He is facing a Tampa Bay offense that has taken advantage of this park with a fat wRC+ of 119 against righties at home.
Lots of Grounders and Soft Contact
Taj Bradley comes in with an identical 4-2 record, but with a worse 4.61 ERA and 4.34 xFIP. Also, his strikeout rate of 7.62/9 is way down after being in double digits each of his first two years in the Major Leagues. However, his average fastball velocity of 96.2 MPH is exactly equal to his career average, so he should still be able to reach back for more when strikeouts are needed.
Rather, some of the declining strikeouts are by design as Taj has increased the usage of the cutter this season, which Stuff+ has rated at 105. That increased usage has induced groundballs at a career high 45.3% rate while also resulting in a sharp reduction in the hard-contact rate to 28.4%, which is also a career best, from a disturbing 39.4% last season.
So, not trying to blow batters away all the time appears to have made Bradley a better pitcher, and his higher groundball rate and lower hard-contact rate are both great ways to limit damage in a hitters’ ballpark.
So, to summarize, we are not believers of Ryan’s ERA while we like Bradley’s underlying metrics. Thus, we are backing the Rays at a home underdog price in Tampa in this spot.
Predicted Score: Rays 6 – Twins 3
MLB Pick: Rays ML (+110) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Texas Rangers
Tuesday, May 27, 2025 – 08:05 PM EDT at Globe Life Field
We see nice underdog value in Arlington Tuesday night while fading an overachieving pitcher and a poor offense. We are backing that value with Bowden Francis and the Blue Jays when they visit Nathan Eovaldi and the Rangers.
Metrics Do Not Support ERA
Nathan Eovaldi may be 4-3 to begin this year, but he currently ranks fourth in the majors with his 1.80 ERA while also owning a great 2.58 xFIP. However, he may regret not having a better record with his start, as frankly, we are forecasting negative regression for him the rest of the way.
We are always dubious about pitchers that show sudden improvement at an advanced age, and Nathan is certainly that at 35 years old. Moreover, his fastball velocity of 94.1 MPH is a career low, with that pitch garnering just a Stuff+ of 94. He also has a poor soft/hard contact ratio of 12.8% / 30.2%.
So, as you might expect given all that, Eovaldi’s success has been mostly due to the Luck Stats that have him surrendering a low .237 BABIP while also owning a high 83.7% strand rate. So, while he has incredibly allowed one earned run or less in six straight starts, we simply do not see that continuing based on his peripherals.
Facing Struggling Offense
Now, we totally get that Bowden Francis is 2-6 in 10 starts for Toronto with an ugly 5.54 ERA and 4.60 xFIP. This is not what the Blue Jays expected from a once highly regarded prospect. But with that said, Bowden has allowed three earned runs or less in seven of his 10 starts, with the three bad starts being so atrocious that the ERA is what it is.
Still, we give him a good chance of posting a Quality Start tonight given the offensive struggles of the opponent, and these betting odds certainly seem right to take a chance on him here. He is facing a Texas offense ranked 26th in the league in wRC+ against right-handers at 87, a figure that gets even worse at 82 here at home.
Moreover, things have gotten truly worse for the Rangers during this month of May, during which that are dead last in the majors with a team batting average of .210 while averaging 3.4 run per game.
The Pick
Thus, we see another outing here of Francis allowing three runs or less. Combine that with Eovaldi greatly overachieving so far based on his metrics, and bet on the Blue Jays to upset at a nice price in Texas on Tuesday.
Predicted Score: Blue Jays 5 – Rangers 4
MLB Pick: Blue Jays ML (+146) at Heritage Sports (visit our Heritage Sports Review)
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
