Top MLB Pick: Rockies-Rangers Under 8.5 (-115) at Bovada (visit our Bovada Review)
We are a solid 20-11 in our last 31 Major League Baseball picks after another 2-1 winning night last Friday that included an underdog winner at odds of +119. We now return to a full 15-game slate of MLB betting matchups for Tuesday with every team in action, and we again have the three selections that we feel have the most betting value at the current MLB odds available at the top-rated sportsbooks.
These best bets are based mostly on our proprietary model, with our three plays for Tuesday night consisting of one side, one Over, and one Under. The first pitch for our first play tonight is at 8:05 PM EDT.
And if you’re looking for more value picks, make sure to take a look at our YouTube channel for more daily betting advice for today, featuring the Diamondbacks vs. Giants and Athletics vs. Dodgers games.
Colorado Rockies vs. Texas Rangers
Tuesday, May 13, 2025 – 08:05 PM EDT at Globe Life Field
Despite each starting pitcher having a lofty ERA, we think both are better than their ERA and each is facing an offense that has struggled against their handedness. Thus, we are backing the Under when southpaw Kyle Freeland and the Rockies visit right-hander Jack Leiter and the Rangers in Arlington.
Check the xFIP
Before delving into this matchup, let us start by saying that Globe Life Park has been the most pitcher-friendly park in baseball so far this season, with the Under going an amazing 17-4 in this stadium!
Kyle Freeland comes off an atrocious start in the altitude of Colorado, where he was roughed up for nine runs and 11 hits while lasting only three innings. This leaves him still winless at 0-5 through eight starts with an ugly 6.41 ERA. To be fair, an outing like that will greatly skew the ERA this early in the season, and a deeper look reveals that his xFIP is quite good at 3.46.
Kyle has been one of the unluckiest pitchers in baseball with an extremely high BABIP allowed of .390 and extremely low strand rate of 51.8%. He has even been unlucky with his modest strikeout rate of 6.86/9, as his more decent swinging strike rate of 10.1% points to an expected positive regression in that department. And as you might expect, his ERA away from Colorado of 4.18 is exponentially better than his gross 9.77 ERA at home in Coors Field.
Moreover, Freeland benefits here by facing a Texas offense with a low wRC+ against lefties for the season at 79, a figure that has been even worse than that lately at a puny 68 in the month of May.
Facing Worst Offense vs. Righties
Jack Leiter comes in at 2-2 with a high ERA himself of 5.09, although that is through a relatively low sample size of 23 innings. The second overall pick of the 2021 MLB draft had allowed two runs of less in each of his first three starts this year before allowing six and four runs respectively in his last two starts.
Jack has still seen a nice spike in his soft-contact ratio here in his second season though to 21.7% from 14.9% as a rookie last year. He has nice separation between his blazing 97.4 MPH fastball and 87.8 MPH slider, with those two pitches rated an excellent 123 and 108 on Stuff+ respectively. And to be fair, those last two shaky outings came against two of the better offenses in baseball vs. right-handers in Seattle and Boston.
Leiter now gets to face a Colorado offense ranked dead last in all of baseball in wRC+ against righties at 69, a figure that drops further to an atrocious 50 away from Colorado!
So, with two starters that are not as bad as their ERA makes them appear and two struggling offenses playing in a decidedly pitcher-friendly stadium, we are betting on the Under in this spot.
Predicted Score: Rangers 4 – Rockies 2
MLB Pick: Under 8.5 (-115) at Bovada
New York Yankees vs. Seattle Mariners
Tuesday, May 13, 2025 – 09:40 PM EDT at T-Mobile Park
We do not think Max Fried’s sensational ERA with the Yankees is sustainable given some declining peripherals. With Bryan Woo of the Mariners also having a fine season himself in the Emerald City, we are betting on Seattle as home underdogs on Tuesday.
Is He for Real?
Max Fried is in his first season for the Bronx Bombers after previously spending his entire career with the Braves, where he saw his ERA and xFIP rise from the previous season each of the last three years for Atlanta. To say the now 31-year-old is enjoying his new surroundings in New York is an understatement, as he comes in at a perfect 6-0 through eight starts covering 51.2 innings while leading the Major Leagues in ERA at a spiffy 1.05.
However, we do not feel things are quite as they seem for Max, starting with his xFIP being over 2.5 run higher at 3.56. He has been aided by scoring highly in the Luck Stats, with a low BABIP allowed of .231 and a high strand rate of 85.5%. That luck has hidden the fact that batters are making more contact with him than ever, with his current swinging strike rate of 9.1% marking the first time it has been in single digits since it sat at 9.0% back in his rookie year of 2017.
Granted, the Mariners’ wRC+ offensively is lower against lefties like Fried than against righties, but it is still a good 108 (8% above average) vs. southpaws.
Better xFIP
Bryan Woo was injury plagued in his first two seasons in the majors, but he has avoided injury so far in this, his third season. And he has pitched well, going 4-1 with a 3.25 ERA and a more closely aligning 3.49 xFIP that is slightly better than Fried over 44.1 innings. Furthermore, his early WAR of 1.1 is not much behind Fried’s 1.3 either.
Bryan has always pitched consistently well when he has made it to the mound, with a career 3.41 ERA and 3.88 xFIP. Also, his currently very good K/BB ratio of 8.93/1.62 per nine innings lines up with his career ratio of 8.46/1.85, and he has an excellent soft/hard contact ratio of 22.3% / 27.3%. Add in an overall Stuff+ of 105 and Woo could be on his way to a nice season if he can avoid a trip to the injured list for the first time in his career.
Yes, we still have Fried as the higher rated pitcher, but our difference is too close to justify the Yankees being decided road favorites. Therefore, we are taking the value with the Mariners at a home underdog price in Seattle on Tuesday.
Predicted Score: Mariners 5 – Yankees 3
MLB Pick: Mariners ML (+121) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
Los Angeles Angels vs. San Diego Padres
Tuesday, May 13, 2025 – 09:40 PM EDT at Petco Park
We are expecting a higher scoring game than the relatively low posted total implies in San Diego on Tuesday. Thus, we are supporting the Over when Jose Soriano and the Angels visit Dylan Cease and the Padres.
Poor Command
Jose Soriano is 2-4 with a 4.00 ERA so far, although he does have a good xFIP so far at 3.52. However, he continues to be held back by poor command, which has been the case since he first came to the Major Leagues in 2023.
Jose currently has a weak K/BB ratio of 7.40/4.00 per nine innings, with that high walk rate sadly not unusual for him as his career mark sits at 3.96/9. His velocity has been down across the board since last year, and while the fastball is still blazing at 97.4 MPH, that is still down from 98.8 MPH. Surprisingly, Stuff+ only has that fastball at 80 despite the still good velocity, an indication that it has become more hittable with less movement.
It does not help to be facing a San Diego offense that is sixth in the majors in wRC+ against right-handers at 115. Furthermore, Soriano cannot count on much support from an Angels’ bullpen that is 29th out of 30 teams in ERA at a collective 6.85, ahead of only Washington.
More Hard Contact
Now, we have always liked Cease, and he is coming off a year where he deserved better than a 14-11 record, given his 3.47 ERA and nicely allowing 3.44 xFIP. However, it has been more of a struggle for Cease this season as he is 1-2 with a 4.91 ERA through 40.1 innings. Yes, his xFIP is better, but even that mark of 3.79 is noticeably up from last year.
The problem for Dylan Cease this year has been allowing more hard air contact than usual. He has an undesirable combination of a higher hard-contact rate (34.2% from 30.7%) and lower groundball rate (35.1% from 39.8%) compared to last year. It does not help that he is also putting more traffic on the bases with his bad walk rate of 3.79/9, up from 3.09/9 last year.
Simply put, we think this total is too low given the flaws displayed by each starting pitcher so far this season. This has us betting on the Over in Petco Park on Tuesday night.
Predicted Score: Padres 6 – Angels 4
MLB Pick: Over 7.5 (+102) at Heritage Sports (visit our Heritage Sports Review)
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
