MLB Best Bets for June 6: Astros & Gordon to Become Rulers of the Guardians
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LT Profits
- June 6, 2025
Top MLB Pick: Astros ML (-103) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
We went 1-1-1 on Wednesday, but the winner at underdog odds of +124 made it a slightly profitable night. That brings us to a solid 38-24-1 in our last 63 Major League Baseball picks. We are back on Friday for another full 15-game slate of MLB betting matchups with every team in action, and we again have the three best bets that we feel have the most betting value at the current MLB odds from top sportsbooks.
These best bets are based mostly on our proprietary model, with the three selections for Friday consisting of two sides including one nice underdog and one total. And if you’re looking for more value picks, make sure to take a look at our YouTube channel for more daily betting advice
Houston Astros vs. Cleveland Guardians
Friday, June 06, 2025 – 07:10 PM EDT at Progressive Field
We see a lot of positive signs for Colton Gordon of the Astros despite his inflated ERA, and we are supporting him when Houston visits fellow southpaw Logan Allen and the Guardians at Progressive Field on Friday.
Nice Command
Colton Gordon is getting his first taste of the Major Leagues, and he is 0-1 with a 5.95 ERA through his first four starts. However, we think that makes this a great “buy low” spot for him given some very nice peripherals. For starters, he has an excellent K/BB ratio of 9,15/1.37 per nine innings, helping to account for a good 3.70 xFIP that is more than two runs lower than the ERA.
His best pitch is a slider that mimics his fastball before a sharp late break, earning a lofty 117 rating on Stuff+ while accounting for the good strikeout rate. The main reason for the high ERA has been bad Luck with a .339 BABIP allowed and a low 67.0% strand rate, neither of which figures to continue.
He now has the potential to dominate a Cleveland lineup that has been terrible against southpaws this season, ranking 25th in wRC+ at 70 (30% below average) and 28th in OPS at just .598 against them. The Guardians also have a high strikeout rate of 25.4% vs. lefties compared to a much better 20.9% vs. righties.
Poor xFIP Deserved
Logan Allen has been mediocre at best since first getting called up to the Major Leagues in 2023, as he is lucky to have a career 18-16 record given his identical 4.57 ERA and xFIP over those first three seasons. He is 3-3 this year with his ERA down a bit to 4.22, but his xFIP is worse at 4.97 over 49 innings. For some context, had he pitched one more inning to reach 50 innings, his xFIP would rank sixth worst in baseball among those pitchers.
And it is easy to see why the xFIP is what it is, as Logan has a poor K/BB ratio of 6.98/4.59 per nine innings. He has an anemic swinging strike rate of 7.1% with his two most frequently thrown pitches, his fastball (90.5 MPH) and slider (77.3 MPH) both at the lowest average velocities of his short career.
Moreover, he must now deal with a Houston offense that is second in the majors behind only the Yankees in wRC+ against left-handers at a lofty 123.
This battle of southpaws looks like a much bigger pitching mismatch to us than this low line would suggest, as does the huge hitting advantage for Houston against lefties. We are betting on the Astros on the road in Cleveland Friday night.
Predicted Score: Astros 5 – Guardians 3
MLB Pick: Astros ML (-103) at BetOnline
San Diego Padres vs. Milwaukee Brewers
Friday, June 06, 2025 – 08:10 PM EDT at American Family Field
We see a sneaky pitchers’ duel and are thus betting on the Under in Milwaukee on Friday when Chad Patrick and the Brewers play hosts to Randy Vasquez and the Padres.
Top 20 in Pitching WAR
The rookie Chad Patrick has been a pleasant surprise for the Brewers despite his 3-4 record. You see, he has yet to allow more than three runs in any of his first 13 appearances in the Major Leagues this season! This includes allowing a total of three runs over his last three starts combined, despite going only 1-0 in those three outings due to a lack of run support.
Chad has a sparkling 2.97 ERA, and perhaps most incredibly of all, this unknown rookie entering the season is currently in the Top 20 in all of baseball in Pitching WAR, tied for 17th at 1.6. He has not replicated his double-digit strikeout rates he had in the minors just yet, but that K-Rate is still good at 8.06/9. His most frequently thrown pitch is a cutter rated 110 on Stuff+, and that metric also has two more of his pitches rated 100+ in his slider (109) and fastball (104).
The promising right-hander puts the Padres at their worst offensive split, as they have a below average wRC+ of 95 against righties on the road.
Good Bullpen Support
If Patrick continues to pitch as he has, it will allow the luxury of Randy Vasquez allowing a few runs while still managing to keep this game Under the total. And, like Patrick, Vazques also comes in with a 3-4 record but a decent ERA at 3.99 over 12 starts covering 58.2 innings.
Granted, we are not nearly as high on Randy though, given his 5.56 xFIP and weak K/BB ratio of 5.37/4.60 per nine innings. Nonetheless, he does have a good chance for at least one more good start while facing one of the worst offenses in baseball vs. right-handers, with the Brewers ranked 25th at 94 overall and that figure dropping to 89 here at home.
Furthermore, should Vazquez get into any trouble, he has the support of a San Diego bullpen ranked third in the Major Leagues with a 3.10 ERA.
So, what we have here is a promising rookie in Patrick whose WAR validates his sub-3.00 ERA, while Vazquez may not be as good as his ERA but is facing a weak offense and has good bullpen support. All of this has us backing the Under in American Family Field in this spot.
Predicted Score: Brewers 4 – Padres 2
MLB Pick: Under 8.5 (-105) at Bookmaker (visit our Bookmaker Review)
Seattle Mariners vs. Los Angeles Angels
Friday, June 06, 2025 – 09:38 PM EDT at Angel Stadium
We are expecting an upset in Anaheim Friday night where we do not think Bryce Miller of the Mariners deserves this much favoritism, prompting us to back Kyle Hendricks and the Angels at home.
Overpriced?
Bryce Miller is coming off a great 2024 season where he went 12-8 while ranking eighth in the Major Leagues with a 2.94 ERA. However, his xFIP was nearly a run higher at 3.85 as he benefited from an .237 BABIP allowed. Now that luck has manifested itself with a return to normalcy this season.
Bryce comes in at 2-4 with a hefty 5.36 ERA and 4.78 xFIP, and remember that is while pitching his home games in a spacious pitchers’ park. As you might expect the ERA is a more dreadful 5.68 on the road. He has seen declines in his command ratio and groundball rate since last year, with the K/BB at a weak 7.63/4.53 and the groundballs at 34.4%. His swinging strike rate is down to the single digits at 9.7%, and he is combining that with a 31.1% hard contact rate.
That is not a profile deserving of being such a decided favorite on the road as Miller is here. And once he departs, the Seattle bullpen is in the bottom third of the league in xFIP, ranking 20th at 4.15.
Contact Ratio Points to Improvement
Now, we totally get that the 35-year-old Kyle Hendricks will never revisit his Glory Days with the Cubs again, and his frontline statistics have him at a dismal 2-6 with a 5.34 ERA in his first year with the Angels. But believe it or not, the news is not all bad as he has allowed three runs or less in four of his last six starts.
That improvement was inevitable though when considering Kyle has an excellent soft/hard contact ratio of 21.6% / 25.8%. Keeping in mind that Hendricks was never a big strikeout guy, much of that great contact rate was by design given his very good Location+ of 114. That means that his pitches hit the intended target 14% better than average, and the crafty veteran has become adept at missing the far part of the bat.
While Hendricks’ recent improvement seems legitimate, this play is much more about fading Miller at this big price on the road, as his regression was expected given the ERA/xFIP variance last season. Thus, we are betting on the Angles as nice home underdogs Friday.
Predicted Score: Angels 6 – Mariners 5
MLB Pick: Angels ML (+131) at Heritage Sports (visit our Heritage Sports Review)
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
