Top MLB Pick: White Sox-Royals Under 8.5 (-125) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
We are now 16-9 in our last 25 Major League Baseball picks after a winning 2-1 Tuesday that included a +118 underdog winner. We now return to a full 15-game slate of MLB betting matchups for Wednesday, and as usual, we again have the three selections that we feel have the most betting value at the current MLB odds available.
These best bets are based mostly on our proprietary model, with our three plays for Wednesday night consisting of one side, one Over, and one Under. The first pitch for our first play tonight is at 6:45 PM EDT.
And if you’re looking for more value picks, make sure to take a look at our YouTube channel for more daily betting advice for today, featuring the Padres vs. Yankees and Reds vs. Braves games.
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox
Wednesday, May 07, 2025 – 06:45 PM EDT at Fenway Park
In a matchup of one overachieving starting pitcher and one we are simply not very high on, we are backing the Over in Boston on Wednesday when Tyler Mahle and the Rangers visit Tanner Houck and the Red Sox.
This Can’t Last, Right?
Tyler Mahle was well regarded when he first came up with the Reds in 2017, but things have not gone as planned, and he has had a mediocre career with a 4.15 ERA and an aligning 4.09 xFIP over 686 Major League innings. Now, suddenly at the age of 30, he is 3-1 in his second season in Texas while ranking third in the majors with a 1.19 ERA through seven starts covering 37.2 innings!
Before casting those Cy Young Award ballots, consider that Tyler has scored very highly in the Luck stats, and it seems unrealistic for this to continue. After all, his xFIP is much higher at 3.82, he has a weak K/BB ratio of 7.65/3.35 per nine innings, and his swinging strike rate of 10.9% is down from 11.4% last season, when he posted a 4.97 ERA. As we alluded too, Luck has been on his side with a low .230 BABIP allowed and a high 86.5% strand rate.
His ERA should skyrocket when those two factors stabilize, and it does not help to be facing a Boston offense that has been good with a wRC+ of 107 against right-handers for the season.
Too Much Hard Contact
Tanner Houck comes off the best season of his career last year despite going 9-10, as he posted a 3.12 ERA and a very good 3.58 xFIP. That year is starting to look fluky however as he is winless so far in 2025 at 0-2 through seven starts with a bloated 6.38 ERA over 36.2 innings. To be fair, that ERA is skewed by one horrific outing where he allowed 11 earned runs in 2.1 innings, but there is still legitimate cause for concern in his peripherals.
For starters, Tanner has seen his strikeout rate decrease from the previous season every year since 2021, going from its peak of 11.35/9 that year to its currently mediocre 7.36/9. And that decline is validated by his current career-low swinging strike rate of 9.8%.
Moreover, much of that increased contact has been hard, as Houck has a poor soft/hard contact ratio of 12.3% / 36.8%, which in turn has led to a career high home run rate allowed at 1.72/9.
So, with Mahle not nearly as good as his ERA and with Houck becoming more hittable than ever, we are betting on the Over in Fenway Park.
Predicted Score: Rangers 7 – Red Sox 5
MLB Pick: Over 9.5 (+102) at Heritage Sports (visit our Heritage Sports Review)
Chicago White Sox vs. Kansas City Royals
Wednesday, May 07, 2025 – 07:40 PM EDT at Kauffman Stadium
In a meeting of two offenses in the bottom five of the league against right-handed pitching, we are betting on the Under when Jonathan Cannon and the White Sox visit Michael Wacha and the Royals in Kansas City.
Rounding to Form
Jonathan Cannon made a quick ascent to the Major Leagues last season just two years after being drafted in the 2022 draft, effectively getting some on-the-job training for a White Sox team that was going nowhere. And while he showed flashes of brilliance at times, he was mostly inconsistent finishing with a 4.49 ERA and 4.62 xFIP.
Now, the frontline stats suggest that Jonathan has only improved slightly in this, his second season in the majors, as he comes in at 2-3 with a 4.26 ERA. However, he may be starting to fulfill his vast potential, as those two wins came in his last two starts where he posted a combined 10 strikeouts against two walks.
Moreover, Cannon has allowed three runs or less in five of his seven outings this season and four runs in another one, meaning he has really had just one bad start where he allowed six earned runs in 5.1 innings. He also gets the added benefit tonight of facing a disappointing Royals’ offense that ranks 26th out of 30 teams in wRC+ against right-handers at 87 (13% below average).
Facing White Sox Helps
Now, we are not particularly high on Michael Wacha, who enters at 1-4 with a good 3.52 ERA that is not supported by a noticeably higher 4.44 xFIP. Now 33 years old, his strikeout rate is at a career low 6.81/9 and his walks are up to 3.05/9 from 2.43 last season. With that said, it is always a bonus to be facing the worst team in the American League, and the White Sox rank 27th in wRC+ against righties at 82.
Besides, the news is not all bad for Michael as his decent swinging strike rate of 10.1% belies the low strikeout rate, pointing to positive regression expected in that area. And the White Sox strike out at the sixth highest rate in the majors offensively at 23.3%. Wacha also has an excellent soft/hard contact ratio of 17.9% / 23.1%, which may be the very reason for the good ERA with a lack of strikeouts.
In summary, the youngster Cannon appears on the verge of a nice season even without getting the wins to show for it on a terrible team, while the veteran Wacha has the tools to handle a poor offense. Add in the Royals being disappointing on offense themselves, and back the Under on Wednesday.
Predicted Score: Royals 4 – White Sox 2
MLB Pick: Under 8.5 (-125) at BetOnline
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Los Angeles Angels
Wednesday, May 07, 2025 – 09:38 PM EDT at Angel Stadium
In a matchup of two pitchers we see going in opposite directions, we are backing Jose Berrios and the Blue Jays as road favorites when they visit Yusei Kikuchi and the Angels in Anaheim Wednesday.
Consistent Since Season Debut
Jose Berrios comes into this contest with a 1-1 record through seven starts, with a 3.98 ERA and 4.03 xFIP over 40.2 innings. Keep in mind though that he had a rough first start of the season, where he allowed six earned runs on nine hits in five innings, so he has pitched consistently well since that lone stinker.
In fact, Jose has a 3.03 ERA since in those last six starts while allowing three runs or less in five of them and four runs in the other. He is coming off an outing against the Red Sox last Thursday, where he allowed two runs in 6.2 innings with eight strikeouts against just one walk. And the best news of all is his velocity was up across his entire five-pitch arsenal in that start over his previous outing, with his fastball velocity at its highest point since his first start.
Berrios now gets to face an Angels’ offense ranked 24th in the league in wRC+ against right-handers at 89.
Lost Control Again
The veteran Yusei Kikuchi is coming off the best two seasons of his Major League career since first coming over from Japan in 2018, but he appears to have taken a step back this season now at 33 years old. He is winless at 0-4 with a 4.21 ERA and a worse 4.71 xFIP through seven starts covering 36.1 innings. This is after posting an xFIP of 3.77 and 3.20 over the last two seasons respectively.
The reason for Kikuchi’s improvement at a late stage of his career was improved control, with his walks rates the last two years of 2.58/9 and 2.25/9 easily his two best rates in the majors. Sadly, we are now seeing the Yusei of old this year with that control leaving him again, with the walk rate currently at 4.71/9. Even worse, that has been accompanied by a sharp decline in his strikeout rate to 8.17/9 from 10.55 last year.
Moreover, once Kikuchi departs, the Angels are second to last in baseball this season in bullpen ERA at 6.95, ahead of only Washington.
With Berrios in good form since his first start and Kikuchi apparently in the downturn of his career, as well as Toronto having the better bullpen, bet on the Blue Jays as road favorites in this spot.
Predicted Score: Blue Jays 6 – Angels 4
MLB Pick: Blue Jays ML (-121) at Bookmaker (visit our Bookmaker Review)
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
