MLB Best Bets for May 6: Cardinals Fly Past Skenes in St. Louis
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LT Profits
- May 6, 2025
Top MLB Pick: Cardinals ML (+118) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
We are still a solid 14-8 in our last 22 Major League Baseball picks even after a losing night last Friday. We now return to a big 16-game slate of MLB betting matchups for Tuesday that includes a doubleheader. We again have the three selections that we feel have the most betting value at the current MLB odds available at the top-rated sportsbooks.
These best bets are based mostly on our proprietary model, with our three plays for Tuesday consisting of one side, one Over and one Under. The first pitch for our first play tonight is at 07:15 PM EDT.
Cincinnati Reds vs. Atlanta Braves
Tuesday, May 06, 2025 – 07:15 PM EDT at Truist Park
We are not expecting a plethora of runs in Atlanta on Tuesday night. Therefore, we are backing the Under when reigning Cy Young Award winner Chris Sale and the Braves host Andrew Abbott and the Reds.
Rounding to Form
Sale had a rough start to this season in defense of his Cy Young, and he currently stands at just 1-3 with an uncharacteristic 4.84 ERA. However, his xFIP is much better at 3.35 and he now appears to be rounding to form. He is coming off probably his best start of the season in Colorado of all places, which may be bad news for the rest of the National League.
In fact, since posting an ugly 6.63 ERA over his first four starts, Chris has now allowed two runs or less in each of his last three outings. Moreover, he looked more like the vintage Sale in the altitude of Coors Field last time out despite an unlucky loss, allowing two runs on five hits in seven innings with 10 strikeouts and not a single walk. And, despite the record and ERA, he still owns a customarily great K/BB ratio of 11.72/2.29 per nine innings.
It also helps that the southpaw is facing what had been a disappointing Cincinnati offense so far, especially against left-handed pitchers where the Reds have a wRC+ of 91 (or 9% below average).
Overachieves Yet Again?
We have never been fans of fellow southpaw Abbott because he is precisely the type of pitcher we usually like to bet against, as his ERA has far outperformed his peripherals every season in the big leagues. Since first coming up to the Major Leagues in 2023, he had a 3.72 ERA over 266.1 innings but only a career 4.74 xFIP.
Moreover, he has taken that variance to new heights through the early going this season, coming in at 2-0 with a nice 2.84 ERA but a 4.48 xFIP. The main reasons we are not fading here tonight though are the lofty odds on the Atlanta moneyline and the fact that he has a very good chance to continue to overachieve with the Braves struggling mightily against left-handers.
Atlanta ranks 23rd in baseball in wRC+ against lefties at a dismal 74, and this is also the first career appearance for Abbott against them, which usually favors the pitcher.
The Pick
In the end, with Sale starting to regain his peak form, Abbott having a chance to continue to overperform and with two offense that struggle against southpaws, we are betting the Under in Atlanta.
Predicted Score: Braves 4 – Reds 2
MLB Pick: Reds/Braves Under 8 (-113) at Heritage Sports (visit our Heritage Sports Review)
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. St. Louis Cardinals
Tuesday, May 06, 2025 – 07:45 PM EDT at Busch Stadium
Even with possibly the best pitcher in baseball on the mound, we are fading Paul Skenes and the Pirates as road favorites and betting on an improving Matthew Liberatore and the Cardinals on Tuesday.
Not Much Support
Make no mistake, as Skenes has the physical ability to win the Cy Young Award this year. It is not his fault that he is only 3-3, as he is sporting a 2.74 ERA and 3.01 xFIP in his second season in the majors. This comes after taking the league by storm as a rookie last year, going 11-3 with a sensational 1.96 ERA, 2.54 xFIP and K/BB ratio of 11.50/2.37 per nine innings through 133 frames.
It is noteworthy though that as great as the ERA and xFIP are so far in 2025, both are noticeably higher than last season. Perhaps most concerning is his strikeout rate is way down to 8.65/9, and while he is still averaging a blazing 98.0 MPH on his fastball, even that is down from 98.8 MPH last year, contributing to a decrease in his soft-contact rate to 14.8% from 19.3%.
Furthermore, Paul cannot count on much support from an offense that has not fared well against southpaws, or from a bullpen ranked 24th in xFIP at 4.39 and 26th in strikeout rate at 7.53/9.
Better xFIP and WAR!
The southpaw Liberatore is in his first season as a full-time starter, and the results have been promising thus far despite his 2-3 record. He has a 3.44 ERA and an excellent xFIP of 2.99 that is slightly better than Skenes’s mark at this early stage. Not only that, but Liberatore’s current WAR of 1.1 is also a tick better than Skenes at 1.0!
No, we do not expect that to continue, but we do think that Matthew has a promising career ahead of him as a starter. His strikeout may be only above average at 7.94/9, but that is more than acceptable given his impeccable walk rate of 0.79/9 through 34 innings, and his decent swinging strike rate of 10.5% indicates a possible uptick coming in his strikeouts.
Liberatore has a nice arsenal of five different pitches, with the slider that he throws most often at 27.6% of the time rated an impressive 112 on Stuff+. And of course, it helps to be facing a Pittsburgh offense ranked 24th in wRC+ against lefties at 72.
The Pick
As great as Skenes is, Liberatore has matched him peripherally so far in his first year as a starter and the Cardinals have the better offense and bullpen. All of this has is backing St. Louis as home underdogs in Busch Stadium.
Predicted Score: Cardinals 4 – Pirates 3
MLB Pick: Cardinals ML (+118) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
New York Mets vs. Arizona Diamondbacks
Tuesday, May 06, 2025 – 09:40 PM EDT at Chase Field
We expect a lot of runs in the open air of Arizona Tuesday evening. Thus, we are supporting the Over when David Peterson and the Mets visit Zac Gallen and the Diamondbacks at Chase Field.
Open Roof Expected
Just as significant as the pitching matchup here, the roof is scheduled to be open for the only time in this series tonight. That makes a huge difference, as the ball carries very well in the desert air and not nearly as well when the roof is closed.
Peterson enters at 2-1 with a 3.06 ERA and 2.88 xFIP through six starts, covering 32.1 innings. As fine as those numbers are, one area of concern is his weak soft/hard contact ratio of 15.3% / 35.7%, which takes on added significance tonight due to the extra carry expected with the roof open. Furthermore, we have serious doubts about him maintaining his currently good strikeout rate of 8.35/9, given that his swinging strike rate sits at a career-low 8.5%.
Complicating matters even more for David is that Arizona has hit him as well as any team in the league, with current Diamondbacks batting .307 lifetime (20-for-65) against him.
Declining Stuff
Gallen was a Cy Young candidate for the Diamondbacks when they went to the World Series two years ago, but it has been downhill ever since. Yes, it is early, but the 29-year-old is currently 2-4 with a 4.93 ERA and 4.12 xFIP, both of which would be career worsts if they stay at those current levels.
We do not think Zac is as bad as those numbers, but the sharp decline in his groundball rate to 33.7% from 46.2% last year is a legitimate concern, given his bad soft/hard contact ratio of 14.4% / 33.7% and the open roof. He is also putting more traffic on the bases than ever with his walk rate currently a career-worst at 4.23/9.
Even more ominous is Stuff+ supporting Gallen’s perceived decline, going from an overall 98 in 2023 to 92 last season to a disturbing 89 thus far this year. Moreover, he is facing a Mets offense sporting a wRC+ of 112 (12% above average) against right-handers.
The Pick
With two starting pitchers tonight prone to hard contact, Gallen’s declining stuff, and Peterson probably not as good as his xFIP given his low swinging strike rate, bet the Over in Arizona on Tuesday.
Predicted Score: Diamondbacks 6 – Mets 5
MLB Pick: Diamondbacks/Mets Over 9 (-110) at Bovada (visit our Bovada Review)
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
