MLB Best Bets for May 5: The Mariners Have Their Bats Ready
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Rainman M.
- May 5, 2025
Top MLB Pick: First Five Mariners ML (-115) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
Top sportsbooks have released their odds for tonight’s MLB action.
Four games, in particular, interest me as worth investing in: Padres vs. Yankees, White Sox vs. Royals, Pirates vs. Cardinals, and Mariners vs. Athletics.
Let’s break down the latest odds and highlight the best value bets to boost your bankroll. And if you’re looking for more value picks, make sure to take a look at our YouTube channel for more daily betting advice for today, featuring the Padres vs. Yankees and Astros vs. Brewers games.
San Diego Padres vs. New York Yankees
Monday, May 05, 2025 – 07:05 PM EDT at Yankee Stadium
San Diego’s Starter
Nick Pivetta starts for the Padres today.
Pivetta is coming off a start in which his ERA that he yielded looks unimpressive.Â
However, he accumulated nine strikeouts to one walk and was the victim of an unfortunately high BABIP (batting average of balls in play).Â
His 2.70 FIP (like ERA but factors out fielding) reflects how well he truly performed.
With that performance, he has achieved an FIP of 2.70 or better in four straight starts heading into today.
During this four-start streak, he even thrived against the Cubs, who lead the MLB in runs per game.
Cold Yankees Lineup
The Yankees form a softer challenge for Pivetta, especially lately.
Since they exploded on April 29 for 16 runs, they have been cold. In their last four games, they are averaging fewer than three runs per game.
Three of the five runs that they scored yesterday came off a reliever with a career 5.23 ERA.
It is evident that their bad form positions them negatively against strong pitching, which is what they’ll encounter today from Pivetta.
Outlook for Carlos Rodon
For the Yankees, Carlos Rodon starts.
Rodon’s 3.43 ERA isn’t bad, but it’s also inflated by a rough three-start stretch from the beginning to the middle of April.
He enters today’s game having allowed a combined total of two earned runs in his last three starts.
His outlook is particularly strong today against a Padres lineup that slugs .293 against him. San Diego has a combined total of 17 hits and 26 strikeouts with him on the mound.
Rodon will thus help keep the game low-scoring.
MLB Pick: First Five Under 4 (+110) at BetOnline
Chicago White Sox vs. Kansas City Royals
Monday, May 05, 2025 – 07:40 PM EDT at Kauffman Stadium
Chicago’s Excellent Starter
The White Sox are big underdogs tonight because their team, as a whole, loses a lot of games.
However, a team’s starting pitcher is hugely important for its outlook in a given game.
Chicago is a great underdog today because Shane Smith is starting.
Smith has allowed two earned runs or fewer in five of his six starts so far.
Having allowed one home run this season, he does a great job of keeping the ball inside the ballpark.
It makes no sense to me that the Royals are favored so heavily, because their lineup is so bad. They are fourth-to-last in runs per game.Â
They will struggle against Smith, against whose favorite pitches from righties they rank third-to-last with a .343 slugging rate.
Cole Ragans vs. White Sox BattersÂ
Given that the Royals’ lineup is so bad while Smith is so good, it would make sense for the Royals to be favored so strongly in this matchup only if their starter were really good and if the White Sox had an atrocious lineup.
However, Cole Ragans is in bad form. He is coming off two consecutive poor starts, most recently struggling at home against the lowly Rockies.
In those two starts, he has allowed a combined total of nine earned runs in seven innings.
Conversely, the White Sox lineup has been strong lately, having accumulated a combined total of 23 runs in their last four games.
With the expectation that Smith will continue to thrive and the White Sox will continue their strong form by hitting a struggling pitcher, it feels very generous to receive a free run from oddsmakers here.
MLB Pick: White Sox +1.5 (-110) at BetOnline
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. St. Louis Cardinals
Monday, May 05, 2025 – 07:45 PM EDT at Busch Stadium
Pittsburgh’s Starter Owns the Cardinals
Carmen Mlodzinski starts for the Pirates today.
He owns a Cardinals team against which he is 2-0 in his career. In 13 innings against them, he has allowed two earned runs.
Cardinals batters have over three times as many strikeouts as hits with Mlodzinski on the mound.
Together, with zero extra-base hits, they slug .135 against him.Â
Outlook for Miles Mikolas
Miles Mikolas starts for the Cardinals today. Pittsburgh’s lineup is looking forward to Mikolas.
The Pirates hit him very well, slugging .444 against him.
Look out, among others, for Adam Frazier and Bryan Reynolds, who have amassed a total of eight doubles and three triples with Mikolas on the mound.
They will have no problem ensuring that the Pirates at least stay level with St. Louis through five innings.
MLB Pick: First Five Pirates +0.5 (-110) at BetOnline
Seattle Mariners vs. Athletics
Monday, May 05, 2025 – 10:05 PM EDT at Sutter Health Park
Luis Severino’s Resume
The Athletics start Luis Severino tonight.
Severino’s most recent starts look impressive, but he’s faced weak challenges in terms of matchup.
Against his four favorite pitches, his last three opponents rank 20th, 26th, and 30th, respectively, in slugging rate against his favorite pitches from righties.
Seattle’s Tougher Lineup
The Mariners will be ready to hit Severino hard.
They have been a great bounce-back team after a loss, having most recently amassed 14 runs on April 26 after they lost a game on April 25 in which they scored four runs.
Most importantly, they rank fourth with a .470 slugging rate against Severino’s favorite pitches from righties.
Seattle’s Starter
Seattle starts Bryce Miller tonight.
Miller loves facing A’s batters: he yields a .327 slugging rate to them. Collectively, they have 15 strikeouts and all of three extra-base hits against him.
Their weak offensive output will help ensure that Seattle leads at least through five innings.
MLB Pick: First Five Mariners ML (-115) at BetOnline
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
