MLB Best Bets for May 30: Low Scoring in the Cards for Angels & Guardians
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LT Profits
- May 30, 2025
Top MLB Pick: Angels-Guardians Under 8.5 (-115) at Bovada (visit our Bovada Review)
We continued our winning ways Wednesday by going 2-1, including an underdog winner at +133 odds, giving us a solid 34-20 record in our last 54 Major League Baseball picks. We now return to another full 15-game slate of MLB betting matchups with every team in action. And, as usual, we have the three best bets that we feel have the most betting value at the current MLB odds available.
These best bets are based mostly on our proprietary model, with all three selections for Friday being totals comprised of two Overs and one Under. The first pitch for our first play tonight is at 6:45 pm ET.
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Philadelphia Phillies
Friday, May 30, 2025 – 6:45 PM EDT at Citizens Bank Park
We are looking for loads of scoring in the City of Brotherly Love Friday night. Thus, we are backing the Over with Taijuan Walker starting for the homestanding Phillies and Quinn Priester expected to follow opener DL Hall for the Brewers.
Don’t Believe the ERA
Walker comes in with a losing 2-3 record while pitching for a first-place team. Now, some would say he has been unlucky given his 2.97 ERA, but we think it is just the opposite, with the ERA being undeserved. At 32 years old, he looks like a pitcher on the tail end of his career, and his metrics simply do not support the ERA, beginning with his considerably higher 4.40 xFIP.
Taijuan has seen his velocity plummet over recent years, currently standing at 92,3 MPH with a below-average Stuff+ of 92. This has led to a weak K/BB ratio of 7.65/3.66 per nine innings, and the K-Rate is not a fluke, considering his poor swinging-strike rate of 7.2%. And with a lot of that extra contact being in the air, given his modest 39.5% groundball rate, we see his deceptive ERA converging toward the much higher xFIP over time.
Furthermore, the scoring may not stop once Walker departs, as the Phillies’ bullpen ranks 24th in the Major Leagues in ERA at 4.61 after blowing another late lead yesterday before re-rallying for the win.
Poor Command Ratio
Hall just made his season debut in relief Monday after being activated off the 60-day injured list, so the Brewers will not want to extend him much in this Opener role. That is when the right-hander Priester is expected to follow, and the reason he is following an opener to begin with is that he has not been particularly good as a traditional starter.
Quinn comes in at 1-2 with a 4.23 ERA and a worse 4.50 xFIP. He has an atrociously bad K/BB ratio of 6.45/4.63 per nine innings, and he is combining that with an extremely low soft contact rate of 9.4%. Given that combination, his average strand rate of 71.9% can be considered lucky, in turn implying his already relatively mediocre ERA should also be worse than it is.
Now he faces a Philadelphia offense that has heated up after a slow start, currently owning a wRC+ of 107 vs. right-handers overall and a more potent 118 here at Citizens Bank Park.
What we have here is a pitcher in Walker with an underserved ERA while looking just about finished with his decreasing velocity, and one in Preister with poor metrics facing a good offense. This has us betting on the Over in Philadelphia on Friday.
Predicted Score: Phillies 7 – Brewers 5
MLB Pick: Over 9 (-118) at Heritage Sports (visit our Heritage Sports Review)
Chicago White Sox vs. Baltimore Orioles
Friday, May 30, 2025 – 4:30 PM EDT at Camden Yards
In a matchup of two starters having terrible seasons and two bad bullpens, we are supporting the Over when Zach Eflin and the Orioles host Sean Burke and the White Sox in Camden Yards on Friday.
Hard Contact Leaving the Yard
Eflin has not pitched well in his first full season with the Orioles after being acquired in the middle of last season. His current 3-2 record is mainly due to gating bailed out by a very good Baltimore offense, as he has an ugly 5.44 ERA and 4.88 xFIP, and he is in terrible current form, having allowed 12 earned runs and an unfathomable seven home runs over only 10.1 innings in his last two starts!
Zach has had a big dip in his fastball velocity this year to 91.5 MPH, and opposing batters are having no issue hitting him as a result. He has a minuscule strikeout rate of 4.86/9 after that figure was 7.29 last season, and that decline is validated by a low 8.5% swinging strike rate. Most of the increased contact has been hard too, with his hard-contact rate at 36.6%, and much of that has been in the air, given a 38.7% groundball rate.
Thus, the home runs allowed are not surprising in a hitters’ park, leading to a bloated 8.74 ERA at home. Moreover, he cannot count on much support from a Baltimore bullpen ranked 26th in the majors with a 5.36 ERA.
Last Start a Mirage
Burke is coming off perhaps his best start of the season last Friday when he allowed one run and three hits in six innings with six strikeouts, but that was vs. a Texas team that is last in the Major Leagues in batting average in May. We do not expect a replay against a potent offense from a guy that is still only 3-5 with a 4.35 ERA and a much worse 5.55 xFIP, with the xFIP literally being the worst in baseball among pitchers with at least 50 innings pitched.
Sean also has the third-worst walk rate among that 50-inning group at a hideous 5.00/9, making for a terrible command ratio with K-Rate at just 6.50/9. For good measure, his low groundball rate of 33.9% is identical to his high hard-contact rate, which we never like to see.
Now, he goes from facing the worst offense in baseball this month to facing a Baltimore offense with a wRC+ of 112 against right-handed pitching this season, a figure that stands at a whopping 134 here at home. Furthermore, the White Sox bullpen has been no help either, ranking dead last in the majors in xFIP at 4.69 with a bad accompanying 4.53 ERA.
So, what we have here is a pitcher in Eflin that is allowing a ton of home runs, leading to an ERA over 8.00 in his home hitters’ ballpark, and a pitcher in Burke with the worst xFIP in the league facing a great lineup. Add two poor bullpens and it looks like all the ingredients are in place for an Over in Baltimore.
Predicted Score: Orioles 6 – White Sox 5
MLB Pick: Over 9 (-116) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
Los Angeles Angels vs. Cleveland Guardians
Friday, May 30, 2025 – 7:10 PM EDT at Progressive Field
We see a sneaky pitching duel in Progressive Field Friday night in a matchup of two seemingly underrated pitchers and two offenses at their suspect splits. We are betting on the under when Jose Soriano and the Angels pay a visit to Luis Ortiz and the Guardians.
New Ace?
Do not look now, but Soriano currently owns the highest Pitching War on the Angels’ staff at 1.2, with all the other starters in their rotation being below 1.0. So do not be fooled by his 3-5 record, as it comes with a good 3.73 ERA and a nicely aligning 3.74 xFIP. Soriano has been a victim of poor run support, but we welcome that here, given our selection of the Under.
Jose has never been a big strikeout guy, but the potential for a spike there may now exist with his average fastball velocity at 97.7 MPH. His strength, however, lies with his heavy 96,3 MPH sinker and his slider rated 109 in Stuff+, and that combination is inducing a superb 64.7% groundball rate and a low 15.0% hard-contact rate. That mix has allowed him to allow three runs or less in nine of his 11 starts this season.
Soriano also puts the Guardians at their worst offensive split, with their wRC+ against right-handers at home sitting at 93 (or 7% below average).
Good Since Season Debut
Now, Ortiz may not have great frontline stats at 2-5 with a 4.73 ERA, but he has pitched better than that, as evidenced by his xFIP being almost a full run lower at 3.83. And remember that he was rocked hard in his first start of the season, allowing seven runs in 4.2 innings. He has regrouped well since then with a 3.88 ERA and 3.56 xFIP over nine starts, allowing three runs or less in seven of them.
Luis has nice velocity on his fastball at 96.2 MPH, but he also has a vast arsenal with that heater being just one of five pitches that he has thrown at least 13% of the time. This has resulted in a career high strikeout rate of 9.96/9 while also raising his groundball rate to 44.5% from 39.7% last year. Ortiz also has two plus-rated supporting pitches on Stuff+ in his sinker (110) and slider (108).
He is facing an Angels offense ranked 24th in the majors in wRC+ vs. righties at 96.
While we would not be surprised if the Angels pulled the upset here, our preferred and official play is on the Under in Cleveland on Friday.
Predicted Score: Angels 4 – Guardians 2
MLB Pick: Under 8.5 (-115) at Bovada
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
