MLB Pick: 1st 5 – Over 4.5 (-125) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
The Baltimore Orioles (12-18, minus-6.74 betting units at press time) can’t be this bad – can they? Actually, they might be worse; Baltimore’s minus-49 run differential translates to an expected Pythagorean record of 10-20.
But wait: We’re talking about 30 games here. In 2024, the Orioles finished fourth overall on the FanGraphs WAR charts for hitting. Now they’re down at No. 25. Have they really changed this much in one season? Maybe not.
Having said that, Baltimore’s opponents this Saturday are the Kansas City Royals (17-15, plus-2.03 units), who are also hoping for some positive regression at the plate. So instead of putting the Orioles in our baseball picks as -112 home faves at BetOnline, we’re taking the Over here at the ranch – and we’re making it the first five innings line when it hits the MLB odds board.
Kansas City Royals vs. Baltimore Orioles
Saturday, May 3, 2025 – 7:15 PM EDT at Oriole Park at Camden Yards
Do the Orioles Miss Anthony Santander?
They miss the 2024 version. Santander posted a 129 wRC+ for the O’s last year, but they weren’t going to shell out the big bucks in the offseason for a 30-year-old first-time All-Star with limited defensive skills. Off to Toronto he went, where Santander has delivered a 65 wRC+ as a full-time DH.
Meanwhile, Baltimore’s top hitter, SS Gunnar Henderson, has seen his wRC+ crater from a career-best 155 to a career-worst 91 in his fourth big-league season. And their second-best hitter, OF Colton Cowser (120 wRC+ last year), has played just four games this year because of a broken left thumb.
There’s not much the Orioles (Over 15-12-3) can do about Cowser this Saturday. But Henderson is likely to break out at some point soon. His .290 BABIP is a couple of notches below his career .313 mark; as a team, Baltimore ranks No. 28 with a .265 BABIP, down from .288 (No. 20) last year.
Believe it or not, Kansas City (No. 27 in batting WAR, down from No. 16 in 2024) has been hitting even worse than the O’s. They don’t have quite as much room for positive regression with their .282 BABIP (No. 17), but all their core position players are healthy; maybe the Royals (Under 20-11-1) just need some warmer weather to get those bats working.
Who’s Pitching?
Kris Bubic (2.25 ERA, 3.63 xFIP) is due up for Kansas City, which gives us even more hope that regression to the mean will drive the Over to the pay window. Bubic has allowed a .278 BABIP this year, down from .316 on his career, and the Royals have stranded 79.6% of his baserunners, up from 72.7%.
On the flip side, we’ve got Tomoyuki Sugano (3.00 ERA, 4.44 xFIP) twirling for Baltimore, so maybe we have even more fuel for the regression fire – although it’s harder to project Sugano after six MLB starts. He was an impressive pitcher in Japan, but Sugano is 35 now, and he’s not likely to continue generating a .250 BABIP with 91.8% of runners left on base.
The Pick
Both sides in Saturday’s matchup have performed somewhere around average from the bullpen, as they did last year, so you can pretty much take your pick between the full-game total of 8.5 runs at BetOnline or the eventual 1st 5 total. There’s a non-zero chance this game will get rained out at Camden Yards, but it should be warm enough in the high 70s, with light breezes up the third-base line towards left field. Bet accordingly, and may the sphere be with you.
MLB Pick: 1st 5 – Over 4.5 (-125) at BetOnline
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
