MLB Best Bets for May 28: Blue Jays Fly Over Rangers as Dogs
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LT Profits
- May 28, 2025
Top MLB Pick: Blue Jays ML (+133) at Heritage Sports (visit our Heritage Sports Review)
Even after a bad night on Tuesday, we still have a solid 32-19 record in our last 51 Major League Baseball picks at the top-rated sportsbooks.
We are back on Wednesday for another full 15-game slate of MLB betting matchups with every team in action, and we again have the three best bets that we feel have the most betting value at the current MLB odds available.
These best bets are based mostly on our proprietary model, with our three selections for Wednesday consisting of one favorite, one underdog and one total. The first pitch for our first play tonight is at 06:35 PM EDT.
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Baltimore Orioles
Wednesday, May 28, 2025 – 06:35 PM EDT at Oriole Park at Camden Yards
In a matchup of two pitchers with expected opposite regressions, we are backing Cade Povich and the Orioles at home in Baltimore, hosting Miles Mikolas and the Cardinals.
Poor K/BB Ratio
Mikolas enters this contest at 4-2 with a good 3.51 ERA, but things are not as they seem. This is because that ERA is accomplished by a poor 4.97 xFIP that is the sixth worst in all of baseball among pitchers with at least 50 innings pitched.
That bad xFIP is fueled by a weak K/BB ratio of 5.44/2.81 per nine innings, with that K-Rate being a career low. Now 36 years old, his average fastball velocity is also at a career low 91.9 MPH, down considerably from 93.2 MPH just last year. This has resulted in a putrid 6.2% swinging strike rate, which as you may have guessed is another career low.
Moreover, most of the extra contact has been in the air, as Miles has an ordinary groundball rate of 37.4%, down from 41.9% last season. Now he must contend with a very good Baltimore offense that owns a wRC+ of 111 against right-handers overall and a crushing 134 against them here at home.
Much Better Lately
Povich was well-regarded when first called up to the majors last season, but he disappointed, going 3-9 with a lofty 5.20 ERA and 4.99 xFIP. He has followed up by going 1-3 with a 4.86 ERA this season, but he may be ready to start fulfilling his potential as he has pitched much better lately, in fact lowering his xFIP all the way down to 3.97.
Cade has done that by allowing three runs or less in four of his last five starts, coming off an outing on Friday where he limited the Red Sox to one run on only four hits. He has improved his strikeout rate to 8.55/9 from 7.78/9 in his rookie season while also raising his groundball rate to 40.4% from 35.2%, which is always a combination we like to see. Povich has also been unlucky with a .316 BABIP allowed and a 69.9% strand rate, more signs of expected positive regression.
The southpaw now gets to face a St. Louis offense that has been at its worst against left-handers on the road, with a meager wRC+ of 70 (or 30% below average).
The Pick
What we have here is an improving youngster in Povich, a declining veteran in Mikolas, and a Baltimore offense with a huge advantage at home. This has us betting on the Orioles as modest favorites in Camden Yards.
Predicted Score: Orioles 5 – Cardinals 3
MLB Pick: Orioles ML (-117) at Bookmaker (visit our Bookmaker Review)
Cincinnati Reds vs. Kansas City Royals
Wednesday, May 28, 2025 – 07:40 PM EDT at Kauffman Stadium
In a matchup of two teams that are both in the bottom third of the league offensively against the handedness of the opposing starting pitcher on Wednesday, we are betting on the Under when Hunter Greene and the Reds visit Noah Cameron and the Royals.
Great Command Ratio
Greene was the second overall pick in the MLB Draft back in 2017, and he had his best big-league season last year going 9-5 with a great 2.73 ERA, although his xFIP was considerably worse at 4.19. Well, he has followed that up by going 4-2 with a 2,54 ERA through nine starts this year, except this time the xFIP is also very good at 3.15.
Hunter’s command has gotten better with each passing season, and it has been outstanding this year with a K/BB ratio of 11.42/1.81 per nine innings, with that K-Rate being the fourth best in baseball among pitchers with at least 40 innings pitched. That is not a fluke considering his superb swinging strike rate of 16.3%, keyed by a blazing fastball averaging 99.3 MPH. At the still young age of 25, Greene appears to have a great career ahead of him.
And he also benefits here by facing a Kansas City offense ranked 27th out of 30 Major League teams in wRC+ vs. right-handers at 86 (or 14% below average).
Nice Start to MLB Career
The southpaw rookie Cameron is not nearly as highly regarded as Greene, but he has been a pleasant surprise during his first taste of the Major Leagues. He is 1-1 in three starts since being called up on April 30th, but he has allowed a grand total of two earned runs and seven hits over 19.1 innings, going a minimum of 6.1 innings in each start!
That translates to a 0.93 ERA, but sadly Noah’s xFIP stands at 4,18, so this joyride should not last much longer. But even with that said, he does have a good chance to have at least one more good start tonight against a very disappointing offense. After entering the season with high hopes, the Cincinnati bats rank 20th in the league in wRC+ against left-handers at a dismal 78.
Furthermore, Cameron has the support of a Royals’ bullpen ranked ninth in the majors in ERA at 3.38.
The Pick
In a game where pitching should dominate from start to finish, we are backing the Under.
Predicted Score: Reds 3 – Royals 2
MLB Pick: Reds/Royals Under 7.5 (-105) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Texas Rangers
Wednesday, May 28, 2025 – 08:05 PM EDT at Globe Life Field
We are calling for an upset and backing rookie Paxton Schultz at a square price in his first Major League start for the Blue Jays when they visit an overachieving Tyler Mahle and the light-hitting Rangers.
Peripherals Do Not Support ERA
Mahle comes in at 5-2 while currently ranking fifth in the majors with a 1.80 ERA. Before casting those Cy Young Award votes, however, consider that he is now 30 years old and has never had this kind of success, owning a career 4.20 ERA and an aligning 4.11 xFIP. And more importantly, his xFIP is 4.16 this season, so unfortunately, it looks like the ERA only has one direction to go.
Tyler’s metrics certainly do not support the ERA, beginning with his poor K/BB ratio of 6.45/3.15 per nine innings. His average fastball velocity is only 92.0 MPH, and he has a below-average overall Stiff+ of 92. So basically, his ERA is almost totally the result of luck; this is, scoring highly in the Luck Stats with a .231 BABIP allowed and 84.5% strand rate.
That high strand rate would be unsustainable for even an average pitcher, but especially so for a non-strikeout pitcher like Mahle.
Good Bullpen Support
Schultz is making his first start in his rookie season after four appearances out of the bullpen. However, he was a starter in the minor leagues, and the Blue Jays have used him in long relief, including one outing where he went 4.2 innings and posted eight strikeouts. Thus, he should be sufficiently stretched out to go five innings or longer with a manageable pitch count.
Paxton earned this opportunity by posting a 2,53 ERA with a very good 2.96 xFIP out of the bullpen with an excellent strikeout rate of 10.97/9. He has displayed a nice arsenal of four pitches that he has thrown at least 16% of the time, and he has had good placement with his pitches with a Location+ of 104.
And it helps to be facing a Texas offense ranked 26th in wRC+ vs. righties at 86 while also ranking dead last in the majors in team batting average during the month of May, at a disgusting .208! Furthermore, Schultz has the support of a good Toronto bullpen ranked third in the league in xFIP at 3.53.
The Pick
Schultz and the Jays’ pen should have continued success against an ice-cold Texas offense. And when adding in Mahle’s expected negative regression, we are betting on the value of Toronto at an underdog price.
Predicted Score: Blue Jays 4 – Rangers 3
MLB Pick: Blue Jays ML (+133) at Heritage Sports
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
