MLB Best Bets for May 23: Not Too Many Tallies When Tigers Take on Cleveland
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LT Profits
- May 23, 2025
Top MLB Pick: Guardians/Tigers Under 8.5 (-108) at Heritage Sports (visit our Heritage Sports Review)
We are a solid 29-16 in our last 45 Major League Baseball picks after going a perfect 2-0 on Wednesday with our third selection rained out. We return on Friday to a huge 16-game slate of MLB betting matchups, including one doubleheader. And we are back with the three best bets that we feel have the most betting value at the current MLB odds available at the top-rated sportsbooks.
These best bets are based mostly on our proprietary model, and it so happens that all three of our plays for Friday night happen to be totals. The first pitch for our first play tonight is at 07:10 PM EDT.
Cleveland Guardians vs. Detroit Tigers
Friday, May 23, 2025 – 07:10 PM EDT at Comerica Park
We are expecting a lower score than the posted total suggests in Motown, so we are playing on the Under when Slade Cecconi and the Guardians pay a visit to Jackson Jobe and the Tigers on Friday.
Six Different Pitches
Cecconi was well-regarded when he came up for the Diamondbacks in 2023, but he was disappointing in Arizona and was traded to the Guardians during this past offseason. He made his belated Cleveland debut on Saturday after beginning the year on the injured list, and we see cause for optimism despite being charged with three earned runs in five innings.
You see, Slade allowed only one run on a solo homer over the first five innings before getting pulled after allowing the first two batters in the sixth to reach base. The normally good Guardians’ bullpen then let him down by letting those two runners score, meaning two of the earned runs he was charged with came after he departed.
More importantly, he had great command with an impressive eight strikeouts and not a single walk over those five frames. His fastball velocity was the best it has been over his brief career at 95.4 MPH, up from 94.4 MPH last year, and he threw six different pitches in the contest, introducing a new sinker to an already wide five-pitch arsenal.
It looks like Cecconi may be ready to fulfill the potential he had when he first came up two years ago. Moreover, the Cleveland bullpen is still Top 10 in the majors in xFIP (9th) and strikeout rate (8th), so that unit should redeem itself once Slade leaves after letting his down last time.
Consistent Rookie
Meanwhile, the rookie Jobe is a perfect 4-0 over his first eight Major League starts this year, showing nice consistency, allowing three earned runs or less in seven of those eight outings. Granted, his 4.12 ERA is not awe-inspiring, but that is a bit bloated by his only bad start, where he allowed six earned runs in 3.1 innings three starts ago.
Considering he has pitched a relatively low 39.1 innings this season, that one stinker is enough to impact the ERA.
The good news is that Jackson has already shown resiliency at the young age of 22, bouncing back over his last two starts by allowing a total of three runs and nine hits with 12 strikeouts in 11.2 innings. He has a live arm with his fastball averaging 96.6 MPH, and he also has a heavy 95.6 MPH sinker that has induced a 44.4% groundball rate. Best of all, Stuff+ has him at 109 overall with all five of his pitches rated 101 or better!
Once Jobe leaves, the Detroit bullpen is sixth in the majors in ERA at 3.30.
The Pick
Although neither of these young starters are household names, both have shown promising signs this season, and each of them has good bullpen support. Thus, we are going Under in Detroit on Friday.
Predicted Score: Guardians 4 – Tigers 2
MLB Pick: Guardians/Tigers Under 8.5 (-108) at Heritage Sports
Seattle Mariners vs. Houston Astros
Friday, May 23, 2025 – 08:10 PM EDT at Daikin Park
Although it is not obvious by the ERA of each starting pitcher, we see some nice promise in both Ryan Gusto of the Astros and Emerson Hancock of the Mariners. This has us betting on the Under in Houston on Friday.
Nice Strikeout Rate
The rookie Gusto has split time between the starting rotation and the bullpen for the Astros this season, and he is 3-2 with an ordinary 4.65 ERA and 4.42 xFIP in 31 innings over 11 appearances, including five starts. The good news, though, is that he allowed three runs or less in four of those five starts, and he has maintained the nice strikeout rate he always had in the minors at the Major League level.
In fact, the strikeout rate is currently at 9.29/9, and Ryan has done it in a variety of ways with his six-pitch arsenal. He has thrown five of those pitches over 10% of the time and has done a good job of keeping batters off balance with a nice 12.1% swinging strike rate. Stuff+ has his fastball at 106 and his slider even better, at 108.
Gusto has also been a bit unlucky with a .330 BABIP allowed, so the ERA should trend downwards as that stabilizes given his high swinging-strike rate. He also has the support of a Houston bullpen that is second in the majors in ERA at 2.78.
Velocity Way Up
As for Hancock, he comes in at 1-2 through seven starts with an unsightly 6.21 ERA. The news is not all bad, though, as his xFIP is practically two full runs lower at 4.22, and he has allowed three runs or less in five of his last six starts. This includes allowing just one run and six hits in his last outing at San Diego on Saturday.
We expect more improvement from Emerson as the season goes on, as he has had a jump in his velocity in his third year in the majors. At 25 years of age, the fastball is averaging 94.7 MPH after averaging 93.4 last year, and he now also has a heavier 94.5 MPH sinker that has raised his groundball rate to 45.1% from a measly 34.7% last season.
Hancock was never a big strikeout guy, but he is making up for that with the increased grounders and a good low hard-contact rate of 23.9%. And he also has a Top 10 bullpen in ERA supporting him with that unit 10th at 3.46.
The Pick
What we have here is two young pitchers that both have metrics suggesting they are better than their current ERAs, each with a competent bullpen behind them. That is enough for us to go Under this total in Daikin Park.
Predicted Score: Astros 4 – Mariners 2
MLB Pick: Mariners/Astros Under 8.5 (+100) at Bovada (visit our Bovada Review)
New York Yankees vs. Colorado Rockies
Friday, May 23, 2025 – 08:40 PM EDT at Coors Field
It is not too often that we are keen on backing an Under in Colorado, but we are doing just that on Friday with what we feel is an artificially inflated total when Clarke Schmidt and the Yankees visit Tanner Gordon and the Rockies.
Good Soft/Hard Contact Ratio
Schmidt comes off a career year for the Yankees last season, where he posted a 2.85 ERA and a lifetime best 3.92 xFIP, though he has regressed back to normal this year. He comes in at 1-1 with a 4.41 ERA and 4.58 xFIP. However, his combination of a good strikeout rate and a good soft/hard contact ratio is the perfect recipe for limiting the damage in the altitude of Coors Field.
Clarke enters with a K-Rate of 8.27/9, and while that is down from 9.81/9 last season, his swinging strike rate is basically unchanged at a good 12.0% (12.2% last season). That points to positive regression expected for the current strikeout rate. Moreover, the soft/hard contact ratio stands at 19.1% / 28.1%.
And of course, it is always beneficial to be facing a Colorado offense that ranks dead last in the Major Leagues in wRC+ at 71 (29% below average). Also, the Yankees’ bullpen ranks fourth in the majors in xFIP at 3.75 and eighth in ERA at 3.38.
He Has the Tools
Gordon is a nice prospect that may have been rushed up to the Major Leagues last year, when he went 0-6 with a ghastly 8.65 ERA, although his xFIP was over four runs lower at 4.51. He gained more seasoning at the Triple-A level to begin this season before getting recalled again by the Rockies, and he allowed four earned runs in 6.1 innings against the Tigers here at home in his first start.
Tanner has the tools to have success at the big-league level as he throws five pitches and topped out at 96 MPH with his fastball in Triple-A this year. He had a good 11.2% swinging strike rate in his first start against Detroit, and he garnered a 115 rating on Location+, meaning he hit the intended target 15% better than average. That is a big improvement over his 104 Location+ during his first Major League stint last year.
The Pick
Now, by no means are we calling for an old-fashioned pitchers’ duel here. But as you can see from our projected score, this posted total still looks quite rich with 12 available, so we are betting on the Under at this inflated number.
Predicted Score: Yankees 6 – Rockies 3
MLB Pick: Yankees/Rockies Under 12 (-107) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
