MLB Best Bets for May 21: Nationals to Chop Down Braves for Upset in DC
-
LT Profits
- May 21, 2025
Top MLB Pick: Nationals ML (+141) at Heritage Sports (visit our Heritage Sports Review)
We are now 27-16 in our last 43 Major League Baseball picks after another winning night last night going 2-1. We now have another full 16-game slate of MLB betting matchups for Wednesday with every team in action, and we are back with three selections we feel have the most betting value at the current MLB odds available.
These best bets are based mostly on our proprietary model, with our three plays for Wednesday night consisting of one underdog side and two totals. The first pitch for our first play tonight is at 6:45 pm ET.
And if you’re looking for more value picks, make sure to take a look at our YouTube channel for more daily betting advice for today, featuring the Rangers vs. Yankees and Angels vs. Athletics games.
Atlanta Braves vs. Washington Nationals
Wednesday, May 21, 2025 – 6:45 PM EDT at Nationals Park
We think that there is an upset afoot in our nation’s capital on Wednesday, where we are backing Trevor Williams and the Nationals at home in Washington, DC when they host AJ Smith-Shawver and the Braves.
Unsustainable Strand Rate
Smith-Shawver had a lackluster rookie season for the Braves in 2023 posting a 4.26 ERA and an ugly 5.71 xFIP, and he spent most of last year in the minors making just one appearance for the big club. He is now back up in Atlanta and his surface numbers look great this year as he is 3-2 with a spiffy 2.33 ERA. However, his xFIP is almost 1.5 runs higher at 3.72 and his metrics do not support the ERA.
For starters, AJ has been extremely lucky with an 84.8% strand rate. That is despite putting a lot of traffic on the bases, with a high walk rate of 3.96/9, and allowing a lot of hard contact. To wit, he has a poor soft/hard contact ratio of 12.6% / 37.9%. And a lot of that hard contact has been in the air as he owns an ordinary 38.2% groundball rate.
Furthermore, he has thrown his fastball 46.0% of the time and that pitch has a low Stuff+ rating of 88, which is probably contributing to the hard contact. This is not the type of pitcher we would trust as a decided favorite like he is here, especially facing a competent Washington offense that is a tick above average in wRC+ against right-handers at 101.
Improvement Expected
Now, Williams comes in at 2-5 with a lofty 5.91 ERA, but we feel he is the opposite of Smith-Shawver in that his peripherals point to positive regression. After all, this is still the same pitcher that went 6-1 with a 2.03 ERA in 66.2 innings for a Washington team that went 20 games under .500 last season.
Trevor’s xFIP of 4.02 is nearly two runs lower than the ERA, as he has been extremely unlucky so far this year with a BABIP allowed of .356 and a low 63.1% strand rate. Neither of those Luck Stats figure to remain at those levels, and they are currently hiding the fact that batters are not really getting great swings against him as he has a career low 23.4% hard-contact rate.
Thus, these two pitchers have been on opposite ends of the luck scale so far this season, making this one of our favorite kinds of matchups, pitting two pitchers with opposite regressions expected. We are betting on the Nationals as home underdogs Wednesday, with Williams expected to trend upwards and Smith-Shawver expected to do the opposite.
Predicted Score: Nationals 5 – Braves 3
MLB Pick: Nationals ML (+141) at Heritage Sports
New York Mets vs. Boston Red Sox
Wednesday, May 21, 2025 – 6:45 PM EDT at Fenway Park
We do not expect an abundance of scoring in Beantown on Wednesday night, so we are betting on the Under when Garrett Crochet and the Red Sox play hosts to Tylor Megill and the Mets.
Cy Young Candidate
The southpaw Crochet instantly became a candidate to win the American League Cy Young Award this season the moment he was traded from the White Sox to the Red Sox during the off-season. This is a guy that would have led the Major Leagues with a 2.38 xFIP last season if Chicago did not limit his innings late in the year, resulting in his 146 innings pitched being 16 innings short of qualifying.
Yet, he posted just a 6-12 record while pitching for the worst team in baseball. He is almost at that win total already through 10 starts with Boston, and he still deserves better than a 4-3 record given his amazing 2.00 ERA.
He has combined a high strikeout rate of 10.43/9 with a good groundball rate of 48.1%, which is a combination we always like to see. That is what happens when your fastball averages 96.0 MPH and your sinker is close enough to the same speed at 95.3 MPH where batters often mistake the latter for the former. Add in a biting slider rated an outrageous 149 on Stuff+ and you get one of the best pitchers in the game.
Breakthrough Season?
Megill may not be at the same caliber as Crochet, but he may still be on his way to his best Major League season despite currently being only 3-4. That is because he has a 3.74 ERA and, more importantly, a 3.50 xFIP through nine starts covering 43.1 innings. Our optimism is further fueled by his huge spike in strikeouts.
Tylor comes off a 2024 season where he had a double-digit strikeout rate for the first time in his career at 10.50/9, and now at age 29, that figure has risen further to a whopping 11.63/9 this year. Best of all, the rise looks legitimate with his overall Stuff+ at a career high 110 and his fastball Stuff+ at an impressive 120.
Moreover, once Megill departs, the Mets’ bullpen ranks fourth in the Major Leagues with a 2.98 ERA and sixth in xFIP in 3.81.
Thus, with Crochet being one of the best pitchers in all of baseball and the Mets’ pitching being in good hands with both Megill and their bullpen, we are going Under this total in Fenway Park on Wednesday night.
Predicted Score: Red Sox 4 – Mets 2
MLB Pick: Under 8 (-115) at Bookmaker (visit our Bookmaker Review)
Texas Rangers vs. New York Yankees
Wednesday, May 21, 2025 – 7:05 PM EDT at Yankee Stadium
We are expecting a good old-fashioned pitchers’ duel in the Bronx on Wednesday, which has us giving support to the Under when Jacob deGrom and the Rangers visit Ryan Yarbrough and the Yankees.
Back to Cy Young Form?
Jacob was a two-time Cy Young Award winner while he was with the Mets, but he has been beset with injuries in recent years and has been unable to display his immense talents since signing with Texas in 2023. However, he is finally healthy again and he looks like he is back in elite form at the age of 36.
Jacob comes in at 4-1 with a great 2.29 ERA and 3.27 xFIP through nine starts covering 51 innings, which is already more innings than he tossed in his first two seasons with the Rangers combined. He is back to doing deGrom things with a typically terrific K/BB ratio of 9.35/1.94 per nine innings while still averaging 97.0 MPH on his fastball at his advanced age. That is accompanied by his biting slider that Stuff+ still has at a nice 115.
As usual, the K-Rate is validated by a good 14.7% swinging strike rate, and he has an excellent soft/hard contact ratio of 20.1% / 27.6%. He has now allowed two runs or less in six straight starts and deGrom comes off possibly his best start as a Ranger, tossing eight shutout innings while allowing only five hits vs. the Astros last Thursday.
Sufficiently Stretched Out
Yarbrough has already been used in three different roles in his first year with the Yankees, working as a starter, reliever and bulk pitcher following an opener, with this being his third traditional start. And he should now be sufficiently stretched out enough to stay in the starting rotation after working five innings in his last outing against the Athletics in Sacramento while allowing only two runs.
Ryan is 1-0 over his 10 various appearances with a 3.70 ERA, but he was seemingly at his best over his two starts, allowing a total of three runs and seven hits over nine innings. While he has never been a big strikeout guy, his current strikeout rate of 7.40/9 is still noticeably up from just 5.93 last season, and has a fantastic soft/hard contact ratio so far of 22.5% / 15.5% through 24.1 innings.
The southpaw Yarbrough now gets the benefit of facing a Texas offense that has struggled against left-handed pitchers this season with a wRC+ of 78 (or 22% below average). He also has the support of a Yankees’ bullpen that is fifth in the majors in xFIP at 3.75.
So, what we have here is a pitcher in deGrom that is regaining his old Cy Young form while finally healthy again, and a pitcher in Yarbrough looking to earn a permanent rotation spot and facing a weak offense. All of this has us betting on the Under in Yankees Stadium on Wednesday.
Predicted Score: Rangers 3 – Yankees 2
MLB Pick: Under 7.5 (-118) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
