MLB Best Bets for May 20: Diamondbacks To Snake Dodgers in Upset
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LT Profits
- May 20, 2025
Top MLB Pick: Diamondbacks ML (+194) at Bookmaker (visit our Bookmaker Review)
We now have a good 25-15 record in our last 40 Major League Baseball picks after a winning 2-1 night on Friday. We are returning to a full 15-game slate of MLB betting matchups for Tuesday with every team in action, and we again have the three selections that we feel have the most betting value at the current MLB odds available at the top-rated sportsbooks.
These best bets are based mostly on our proprietary model, with our three plays for Tuesday night consisting of one huge underdog and two totals. The first pitch for our first play tonight is at 06:40 PM EDT.
Cincinnati Reds vs. Pittsburgh Pirates
Tuesday, May 20, 2025 – 06:40 PM EDT at PNC Park
In a matchup of two offenses that have performed poorly against the handedness of their pitching opponent on Tuesday, we are supporting the Under when right-hander Nick Martinez and the Reds visit southpaw Bailey Falter and the Pirates.
Better Since Japan
Martinez had a rather rough start to his Major League career, so much so that he went overseas to pitch in Japan. But, with very little fanfare, he has quietly been a much better pitcher since returning to the Major Leagues in 2022.
Nick had an ERA in the 3.00s in each of his three seasons back, and after posting an xFIP of 4.04 in 2022, that figure was also in the 3.00s the last two years. Well, here we go again this year as he comes in 2-4 but with a 3.66 ERA and 3.98 xFIP through nine starts covering 51.2 innings. He has been very consistent while allowing three earned runs or less in seven of those nine outings and four runs in the other two, but has received little support from a struggling offense.
He also comes off his best start of the season where he tossed seven scoreless innings while allowing just two hits vs. the White Sox on Thursday. Yes, it was “only” the White Sox, but believe it or not, he now faces a Pittsburgh offense that is one spot below Chicago in wRC+ vs. right-handers, ranking 29th out of 30 Major League teams at a woeful 74 (26% below average).
Facing Disappointing Offense
The left-hander Falter comes in 2-3 with a nondescript 4.02 ERA and 4.77 xFIP. However, he is in excellent form after a terrible start, and at 28 years old, he may be on the verge of finally fulfilling the potential he has had all along. And of course, facing a disappointing offense does not hurt.
Bailey has allowed a grand total of one run and seven hits in 16.2 innings over his last three starts after posting a 5.93 ERA over his first six efforts. This is a pitcher with a good arsenal of four pitches, and his two most frequently thrown pitches, the fastball and sinker, are each rated an identically good 101 on Stuff+. Moreover, his great last three starts have helped raise his soft contact rate to a career-best 17.5%.
Now he has the luxury of facing a Cincinnati offense that, after having big expectations entering the year, has a wRC+ of just 78 against lefties this season.
The Pick
In a nutshell, the two weak offenses may be the key to this total.
Nonetheless, Martinez has also been a solid starter since returning to the majors, and Falter could be on the verge of a break-out year, having turned things around after a slow start. That is enough for us to bet on the Under in the Steel City on Tuesday.
Predicted Score: Reds 4 – Pirates 2
MLB Pick: Reds/Pirates Under 8 (-110) at Bovada (visit our Bovada Review)
Texas Rangers vs. New York Yankees
Tuesday, May 20, 2025 – 07:05 PM EDT at Yankee Stadium
We are looking for what some may consider an unlikely pitching duel in the Bronx on Tuesday. This has us betting on the Under when Will Warren and the Yankees host Patrick Corbin and the Rangers.
Heavy Sinker
We were not particularly high on Warren entering this season, but he has been better than we expected despite being just 2-2 with a 4.61 ERA. We think the xFIP tells the truer story at a considerably better 3.18, and he has displayed one of the favorite combinations we like to see with a good strikeout rate and groundball rate.
While Will is not a particularly hard thrower with the fastball averaging 93.1 MPH, he has a nice arsenal of four pitches to keep batters off balance, including a heavy 92.9 MPH sinker that is almost at the same speed as his fastball! This has led to the desirable combo of a double-digit strikeout rate at 10.98/9 and a good groundball rate of 45.0% that is well up from 36.2% last year.
That improved groundball rate makes sense considering Stuff+ has his sinker at 109 this season, making it his highest rated pitch right now and up from 103 last year. Warren has been consistent while allowing three earned runs or less in seven of his nine starts and allowing four runs in the other two outings. He now gets to face a Texas offense ranked 25th in the Major Leagues in wRC+ vs. right-handers at just 89 (11% below average).
Continuing Resurgence
Corbin is loving life in his first year in the American League after spending his entire career in the NL with the Diamondbacks and Nationals since joining the majors in 2012. After being considered by many to be the worst starting pitcher in baseball over the last four seasons, during which his best ERA in any year was 5.20 in 2023, he has undergone a resurgence in Arlington.
Patrick may be just 3-2, but he has a totally unexpected ERA of 3.35 while allowing three runs or less in all seven of his starts. Moreover, he is coming off perhaps his best start of the season, where he allowed three runs but only four hits with a season-high nine strikeouts against one walk. The key has been getting the bite back on his slider this year, as Stuff+ has that pitch rated at 100 for its highest rating since 2021.
Granted, facing the Yankees is never easy, but Corbin was brilliant in his last start against them, tossing six scoreless innings while allowing only two hits with six strikeouts.
The Pick
Thus, this is a matchup of two pitchers who have been consistently good all season despite low expectations coming in, and each has metrics that support their improvement. Therefore, we are going Under this total in Yankee Stadium on Tuesday night.
Predicted Score: Yankees 4 – Rangers 3
MLB Pick: Rangers/Yankees Under 9 (-113) at Heritage Sports (visit our Heritage Sports Review)
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Los Angeles Dodgers
Tuesday, May 20, 2025 – 10:10 PM EDT at Dodger Stadium
While Yoshinobu Yamamoto is a Cy Young Award candidate for the Dodgers this year, Ryne Nelson has been solid for the most part for the Diamondbacks, and the offenses have been very close against right-handed pitching. Add in a very generous price and we are going for the value with Arizona.
Better than the ERA
Nelson is joining the D-Backs’ rotation as an injury replacement after nine of his ten appearances this season came in relief. He comes in at 1-1 with a lofty 5.13 ERA, but that is deceptive as his one bad relief outing where he was charged with five earned runs in 0.2 innings skews the ERA after only 26.1 innings.
Ryne has a very good xFIP of 3.49 and he was solid in his only start so far, allowing two runs and just three hits in 4.1 innings against a good Mets’ offense. Also, remember that he was primarily a starter in his first three years in the majors and went 10-6 last season with a sneaky 3.98 xFIP. His overall Stuff+ is a career high 111 this year, and while it is fair to question if he can maintain that over a starter’s workload, the fact that he was always a starter before helps.
And while he is facing a Dodgers’ offense ranked second in the majors in wRC+ against right-handers at 128, you will see in a bit that is not much better than the Arizona offense.
Facing Potent Offense
Now, make no mistake, as Yamamoto is a legitimate Cy Young contender in his second season in the majors after coming over from Japan last year. He enters this game 5-3 with a great 2.12 ERA and terrific 2.66 xFIP. With that said, he has also been very lucky, leaving room for at least some negative regression.
Not to take away from Yoshinobu’s immense talent, but the fact remains that he has benefited from a .246 BABIP allowed and a ridiculous strand rate of 81.8%. And while it is true that the great strikeout rate of 10.41/9 helps the strand rate, it is still abnormally high considering his disturbing hard contact rate of 35.0% is the highest of his professional career, including all his years in Japan.
He now must contend with a Diamondbacks’ offense that is just one tick behind the Dodgers in wRC+ against righties, ranking third at 127.
The Pick
So, as great as Yamamoto has been, his lucky strand rate, despite allowing a high hard contact rate, still makes him a candidate for negative ERA regression. With Nelson being the opposite as a positive ERA regression candidate given his good xFIP and Stuff+, as well as the two offenses being nearly equal against righties, we are betting on the Diamondbacks to upset at a great price.
Predicted Score: Diamondbacks 5 – Dodgers 4
MLB Pick: Diamondbacks ML (+194) at Bookmaker
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
