MLB Best Bets for May 2: Not Too Many Tallies in Texas Tonight
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LT Profits
- May 2, 2025
Top MLB Pick: Mariners-Rangers Under 8 (-113) at Bookmaker (visit our Bookmaker Review)
We are now a sizzling 14-5 in our last 19 Major League Baseball picks after a 3-0 sweep Wednesday that included +153 and +112 underdog winners. We now return to a full 15-game slate of MLB betting matchups for Friday, where we again have the three plays that we feel have the most betting value at the current MLB odds available.
These best bets are based mostly on our proprietary model, with all three of our Friday selections being totals consisting of two Overs and one Under. The first pitch for our first play tonight is at 7:05 PM EDT.
And make sure to take a look at our YouTube channel for more daily betting advice. Today, our expert has advice on the Athletics vs. Marlins and Tigers vs. Angels games.
Kansas City Royals vs. Baltimore Orioles
Friday, May 02, 2025 – 07:05 PM EDT at Oriole Park at Camden Yards
We foresee a slugfest in Baltimore on Friday with the final game total getting into double digits. Thus, we are backing the Over when Dean Kremer and the Orioles host Michael Wacha and the Royals.
Back to Reality
Dean Kremer shocked a lot of baseball experts by going 13-5 for the Orioles two years ago, but we suspected that the record was Fool’s Gold as he did so with a 4.12 ERA and 4.34 xFIP. Well, he followed up with a nearly identical 4.10 ERA and a literally identical 4.34 xFIP last season, but this time the record was closer to what you would expect at 8-10.
And Dean has been downright dreadful so far this year, coming in at 2-4 with a bloated 7.04 ERA. Sure, his xFIP is better but it is still worse than those last two seasons at 4.77. His peripherals support that decline, as his strikeout rate has taken a huge dip to 5.87/9 from 8.54 last season, his soft contact rate has dripped to 18.0% from 23.1%, and his hard contact rate has risen to 33.3% from 28.5%.
To make matters worse, much of the additional hard contact has been in the air as Kremer has an ordinary groundball rate of 38.7%, down from 41.7% last year. Furthermore, he cannot count on much support from a Baltimore bullpen that ranks 25th in ERA at 4.72 while owning just a 4.20 collective xFIP.
Undeserved ERA
Michael Wacha is 1-3 for the Royals, and while some may say that the record is unlucky given his 3.38 ERA, we feel it is the ERA that is undeserved given that his xFIP is nearly a full run higher at 4.34. This continues a pattern where Wacha’s ERA has outperformed his xFIP each of the last three seasons, so we are very suspect of his 3.88 career ERA.
Michael has pitched around a weak K/BB ratio this year of 7.31/3.38 per nine innings, and at age 33 he is starting to lose velocity, with his fastball average of 93.1 MPH down from 93.6 MPH in 2024. This has led to a low Stuff+ fastball rating of 88.
Wacha is also facing a Baltimore offense that ranks fifth in the Major Leagues in wRC+ against right-handers at 120 (20% above average), and the Kansas City bullpen has taken a step back from recent seasons ranking only 17th in xFIP at 4.12.
In the end, what we have here is two starters with lots of holes, two bullpens that have been less than reliable and a Baltimore offense that has feasted on righties. All of this has us betting on the Over in Camden Yards.
Predicted Score: Orioles 7 – Royals 5
MLB Pick: Royals-Orioles Over 9.5 (+105) at Bovada (visit our Bovada Review)
Minnesota Twins vs. Boston Red Sox
Friday, May 02, 2025 – 07:10 PM EDT at Fenway Park
We expect a higher scoring game than the posted total implies in Boston Friday night. Therefore, we are betting on the Over when Brayan Bello and the Red Sox host Joe Ryan and the Twins.
Belated Debut
Brayan Bello had a late start to his season after beginning the year on the injured list. He debuted on April 22nd and is 2-0 with a 3.27 ERA in his two starts. However, his xFIP paints a different picture at 4.87 as he has had terrible command thus far while getting bailed out by the Red Sox offense in both starts.
Brayan has a hideous K/BB ratio of 5.73/4.91 per nine innings in the early going, and while that is over only 11 innings, the much bigger concern is that his velocity is down around 2 MPH since last year over his three primary pitches (fastball, sinker, slider). That has led to a career low swinging strike rate so far at 8.7%. which is a significant drop from 11.4% last year. Furthermore, he also has an awful soft/hard contact ratio of 12.1% / 39.4%.
Another bad sign is that Bello’s overall Stuff+ has gone down every season from the previous year with this being his fourth season, going from 105 his rookie year to 102 to 97 to 95 here in 2025, with the fastball sitting at a lowly 88.
Home Run Prone
Now, we do like Joe Ryan a bit as he deserves better than a 2-2 record given his 3.18 ERA and 3.48 xFIP. And after all, we are talking about a pitcher with a career 3.82 ERA and aligning 3.87 xFIP over 504.1 Major League innings. Moreover, his command has been as great as ever so far this year, with an outstanding K/BB ratio of 10.32/1.06 per nine innings.
Our primary concern with Joe though is what will happen when he is not striking people out. That is because he has posted the worst soft/hard contact ratio of his career through the early going, at a disturbing 15.1% / 37.2%, and much of that has been in the air with his groundball rate at a low 34.9%.
This has resulted in five home runs allowed already over 34 innings, and he must now deal with a Boston offense that is eighth in the Major Leagues in wRC+ against right-handers at 110 and sixth in OPS against them at .756.
In a nutshell, we have serious concerns with Bello’s declining Stuff+, especially just coming back from an injury, as well as Ryan’s bloated hard-contact rate while facing a good offense. We are backing the Over in Fenway Park Friday.
Predicted Score: Twins 7 – Red Sox 5
MLB Pick: Twins-Red Sox Over 9 (+102) at Heritage Sports (visit our Heritage Sports Review)
Seattle Mariners vs. Texas Rangers
Friday, May 02, 2025 – 08:05 PM EDT at Globe Life Field
Globe Life Field has been the most Under-friendly stadium in baseball this season, and we look for that pattern to continue with another Under Friday when Jack Leiter and the Rangers host Bryan Woo and the Mariners in Texas.
Rusty Return
Jack Leiter struggled during his first taste of the Makor Leagues last season, going 0-3 in nine games (six starts) covering 35.2 innings with an 8.83 ERA and 5.27 xFIP. He seems to have benefited from that experience though, making the Texas starting rotation in spring training and currently sitting at 2-0 in three starts with a 2.03 ERA and 3.43 xFIP.
The reason he has only three starts is because he incurred a finger blister after his first two starts and went on the injured list for a month. He sparkled in those first two outings allowing only one run on five hits with 10 strikeouts against just one walk in 10 innings.
He was a bit rusty during his return on Sunday, walking three batters in the first inning, but he settled down after that, exiting after 3.2 innings with an elevated pitch count but allowing only two runs despite four total walks. Now that he has shaken the rust off, we expect Leiter to return to the form of his first two starts where he displayed impeccable control.
Furthermore, it seems all pitchers have appreciated pitching here in Arlington this season, where the Under currently stands at a Major League best 15-2!
Good When He Has Pitched
Bryan Woo has pitched well during his three-year Major League career, posting a 16-9 record with a 3.40 ERA and 3.94 xFIP in 241 career innings. The issue has been consistently making it to the mound, as he spent time on the injured list in each of his first two years. Well, he has avoided the injury bug so far this young season with promising returns.
Bryan enters 3-1 with a 3.09 ERA and 3.78 xFIP, sporting an excellent K/BB ratio of 8.44/1.97 per nine innings. That command ratio is not an anomaly either, as it stands at 8.37/1.90 over his career. He also has an excellent soft/hard contact ratio of 19.1% / 25.8% and is sporting a nice swinging strike rate of 11.9%. As long as Woo can avoid getting injured again, he may be on his way to his best season yet.
It also helps that he is facing a Texas offense that is only 24th in the majors in wRC+ against right-handed pitchers at 90 (or 10% below average).
So, what we have here is two young pitchers both showing nice potential, pitching in what has thus far been the most pitcher-friendly park in baseball this season. This has us betting on the Under in this spot Friday.
Predicted Score: Rangers 4 – Mariners 2
MLB Pick: Mariners-Rangers Under 8 (-113) at Bookmaker
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
