MLB Best Bets for May 18: The Mariners Have Their Brooms Ready
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Rainman M.
- May 18, 2025
Top MLB Pick: Mariners ML (+125) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
The sportsbooks have released their batting odds for today’s MLB action.
Three games, in particular, interest me as worth investing in: Guardians vs. Reds, Athletics vs. Giants, and Mariners vs. Padres. Join us and find the best bets of the day!
Cleveland Guardians vs. Cincinnati Reds
Sunday, May 18, 2025 – 1:40 PM EDT at Great American Ball Park
Luis Ortiz: Stuff vs. Results
Cleveland starts Luis Ortiz today. When people think of Ortiz, they commonly see him as a high-potential pitcher who has nice stuff. Expectations were pretty high for him when he arrived to Cleveland, which has a strong history of developing starting pitchers.
His resume, overall, has been rather mixed, however. He is worth fading today because he has been so bad in his away starts. Whereas his home ERA is 2.42, it is 7.29 on the road. In his last road start, for example, he allowed five earned runs in 5.1 innings in Washington.
The common thought among bettors is to back the team that is trying to avoid getting swept, but there is nothing to suggest that Cleveland plays better in this spot. Its pitcher’s road struggles help justify a play on the Reds.
Cincinnati’s Improved Starter
Andrew Abbott starts for the Reds today. Abbott is becoming a different, much stronger pitcher than people expected him to be.
Whereas he averaged 7.43 strikeouts per nine innings last year, he upped his strikeout rate to 11.40 strikeouts per nine innings this season.
His improved fastball is helping to create a new narrative on him. Batters are struggling to make any sort of contact with this pitch. This improvement reflects significant mechanical changes that he made to his pitching during the offseason.
Abbott vs. Guardians Batters
The improved Abbott matches up well against Cleveland’s lineup. Against his favorite pitches from lefties, the Guardians rank 29th with a .265 slugging rate.
His solid form will enable him to maximize his matchup edge: he has allowed a combined total of one earned run in his last three starts.
While I don’t recommend investing in a full-game play on the Reds because of the heavy usage that their bullpen received yesterday, Abbott’s strong pitching will ensure that they lead through five innings.
MLB Pick: Reds First-Half ML (-125) at BetOnline
Athletics vs. San Francisco Giants
Sunday, May 18, 2025 – 4:05 PM EDT at Oracle Park
Respect for Jeffrey Springs
The Athletics start Jeffrey Springs today. Springs’ most recent starts are changing the narrative on him. He enters today having allowed a combined total of three earned runs in his last three starts.
Most recently, he held the mighty Dodgers to one earned run in seven innings in their venue. In particular, he has improved his command, such that opposing batters really struggle to draw walks or hit home runs with him on the mound.
Springs vs. Giants Batters
Springs’ outlook today is particularly strong given his matchup advantage against San Francisco’s lineup. A lefty, he relies primarily on a fastball, slider, and changeup. San Francisco ranks 27th with a .331 slugging rate against these pitches from lefties.
Aging Justin Verlander
San Francisco’s starter, Justin Verlander, automatically commands respect from baseball bettors. To be clear, he does deserve respect from baseball fans, who are obviously aware of his long and highly successful career.
But bettors can’t think like fans: they have to live in the here and now, which in this case precludes revering a well-respected pitcher.
Verlander is not his old self, and his recent starts show this. For example, he has allowed a combined total of four home runs in his last three starts. His FIP (like ERA but factors out fielding) was over 6.00 in both of his last two starts.
Verlander vs. A’s Batters
To be fair, Verlander has still performed very well against teams that match up poorly against him, but the Athletics are not one of those teams. They rank fourth with a .475 slugging rate against his favorite pitches from righties.
Their lineup will ensure that they lead through five innings. With a first-half play, we avoid having to trust their bullpen.
MLB Pick: Athletics First-Half ML (+110) at BetOnline
Seattle Mariners vs. San Diego Padres
Sunday, May 18, 2025 – 4:10 PM EDT at Petco Park
Bring Out The Brooms
Bettors are commonly inclined to back a team with a good record that is trying to avoid being swept, but we have to resist this inclination when it is not grounded in solid empirical data.
The Padres have already been swept before, by Tampa Bay. Seattle likewise has found success this year in completing a sweep, as when it beat Texas on April 13.
We should simply look at this game from a matchup-focused perspective.
Seattle’s Matchup Edge
Bryan Woo for Seattle and San Diego’s Michael King square off.
I like Seattle because the Mariners are one of the better teams at slugging King’s favorite pitches, whereas the Padres rank 19th with a .393 slugging rate against Woo’s pitches from righties.
The Mariners’ lineup, which merited its poor reputation last year, has become much more productive this season. Its success on the road — Seattle ranks fourth in road runs per game — will continue today.
King’s FIP is almost 1.00 higher than his ERA. He has benefited from an unsustainably high strand rate that Seattle is primed to worsen by knocking in runs.
Its collection of strong relievers, including its closer Andres Munoz with his 0.00 ERA, justifies a full-game investment.
MLB Pick: Mariners ML (+125) at BetOnline
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
