MLB Best Bets for May 16: Scarcity of Scoring Expected in Boston
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LT Profits
- May 16, 2025
Top MLB Pick: Braves/Red Sox Under 8 (-120) at Bookmaker (visit our Bookmaker Review)
MLB betting matchups for Friday with every team in action, and we again have the three selections that we feel have the most betting value at the current MLB odds available at the top-rated sportsbooks.
These best bets are based mostly on our proprietary model, with our three plays for Friday night consisting of one side, one Over and one Under. The first pitch for our first play tonight is at 07:07 PM EDT.
Detroit Tigers vs. Toronto Blue Jays
Friday, May 16, 2025 – 07:07 PM EDT at Rogers Centre
We feel that this posted total seems rather light north of the border Friday night. Therefore, we are backing the Over when Bowden Francis and the Blue Jays host Jack Flaherty and the Tigers.
Allowing Too Many Homers
Francis showed some promise during his first two years in the Major Leagues, but he appears to have taken a step back this season. He is 2-5 through eight starts, covering 41.2 innings, with a lofty 5.40 ERA. This is after posting a 3.30 ERA over 103.2 innings last season. Granted, his current xFIP is lower than his ERA, but the former is still not very good at 4.61.
Bowden is allowing much more contact this season, as his strikeout rate has dipped to 6.48/9 from 7.99/9 last year, a decrease validated by an accompanying dip in his swinging strike rate to 8.6% from 10.3%. Furthermore, much of the added contact has been in the air, given a low 34.8% groundball rate, and much of that air-contact has been hard, with his hard-contact rate at 33.1%.
That combination has led Francis to be third in the majors in home runs allowed, surrendering 12 dingers already in those 41.2 innings for an atrocious home run rate of 2.59/9, which is the worst in baseball among pitchers with at least 40 innings pitched. That does not bode well facing a Detroit offense that is eighth in the league in home runs with 56 and sixth in OPS at .758 overall, as well as ranking fifth in wRC+ vs. right-handed pitching at 115 (15% above average).
Drop-Off from Last Year
Flaherty is coming off perhaps his best Major League season while splitting time with the Dodgers and Tigers, combining to go 13-7 with a 3.27 ERA and a 3.00 xFIP that ranked fourth best in the league. His return to Detroit has not been as kind, as he enters at a disappointing 1-5 with a 4.61 ERA in eight starts.
Jack has maintained his nice strikeout rate at 10.98/9, but his command has not been as good as last year, with the walk rate up to a disturbing 3.07/9. He also has a poor soft/hard contact ratio of 11.1% / 38.9%, each of which is a career worst since entering the league in 2017. And although he has not quite been as home-run prone as Francis, Flaherty still has the seventh-worst home run rate allowed for pitchers with at least 40 innings at 1.98/9.
His presence on the mound puts the Blue Jays at their best offensive split, as Toronto has a wRC+ of 112 against right-handers at home.
The Pick
This is a matchup of two pitchers that are allowing a lot of home runs and two offenses that are safely above average against righties. That has us betting on the Over in at Rogers Centre on Friday.
Predicted Score: Tigers 6 – Blue Jays 5
MLB Pick: Tigers/Blue Jays Over 8.5 (-104) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
Atlanta Braves vs. Boston Red Sox
Friday, May 16, 2025 – 07:10 PM EDT at Fenway Park
We expect both offenses to struggle in a pitching matchup between the reigning National League Cy Young Award winner and a pitcher capable of winning that award in the American League this year. We are betting on the Under when Chris Sale and the Braves visit Garrett Crochet and the Red Sox in Beantown.
Back in Form
Although Sale has allowed three earned runs or less in eight of his nine starts for the Braves in defense of his Cy Young, his numbers are not up to his usual standards with a 3.97 ERA and 3.16 xFIP, not to mention his unlucky 1-3 record. This is after leading the majors in both ERA and xFIP last season at 2.38 and 2.64, respectively.
However, most of the damage this season came over the first four starts, as Chris now looks to be back to his peak form. He has allowed two runs or less in five straight outings, posting a 2.20 ERA and 2.97 xFIP over this time with an exceptional strikeout rate of 12.56/9, leaving that rate at 12.08/9 for the season. Also, his swinging strike rate of 14.3% is at its highest rate since 2018, and his soft contact rate of 19.2% is up from 16.7% during his Cy Young year last season.
So, the main reason Sale has just one win this year is that the Braves have not been nearly as good on offense as in past seasons, especially against southpaws.
Cy Young Contender
Well, those Braves now face a great southpaw in Crochet, who instantly became a Cy Young candidate when he was traded to the Red Sox from the White Sox during the offseason. That is because he had a great year last season as his 2.38 xFIP was better than even Sale, and he would have led the majors in that department if his 146 innings were not 16 innings short of qualifying. Yet, he had just a 6-12 record to show for it while pitching for the worst team in baseball.
Well, he is off to a 4-2 start for Boston while ranking seventh in the majors in ERA at 1.93. His current xFIP is a tad higher, but it is still a very good 3.14, and he has the enviable combination of a great strikeout rate (10.45/9) and a very good groundball rate (47.4%). That is what happens when you own one of the best cutters in the game, with that pitch garnering a 118 rating on Stuff+.
As mentioned, he is facing an Atlanta offense that is struggling against lefties, ranking 26th in wRC+ against them at 70.
The Pick
What we have here is a matchup of two of the best southpaws in the game right now. This has us backing the Under in Boston in what should be a classic pitchers’ duel.
Predicted Score: Braves 3 – Red Sox 2
MLB Pick: Braves/Red Sox Under 8 (-120) at Bookmaker
Minnesota Twins vs. Milwaukee Brewers
Friday, May 16, 2025 – 07:10 PM EDT at American Family Field
While Joe Ryan of the Twins has nice frontline stats, we like what we see in young Chad Patrick of the Brewers. This has us backing the Brew Crew as tiny home underdogs in American Family Field on Friday.
Lots of Hard Air Contact
Ryan is having a fine year on the surface as he is 3-2 with an excellent 2.74 ERA and a very good 3.45 xFIP. He also has an outstanding K/BB ratio of 10.57/0.98 per nine innings. Our issue, however, is what is happening when Ryan is not striking people out, an issue being disguised by scoring highly in the Luck Stats with a .243 BABIP allowed and 87.3% strand rate. And that issue is hard air contact.
You see, Joe has a low groundball rate of 33.6%, and much of that air contact has been solid with his hard contact rate allowed at a career high 34.2%. Obviously, owning a hard-contact rate that is higher than your groundball rate is never a good sign, and we feel this will catch up with Ryan once the Luck Stats stabilize, even with the double-digit K-Rate.
It is also worth noting that the current velocity of his fastball of 93.0 MPH is down from 94.0 MPH last year, and the velocity of his second most frequent pitch, the slider, is down to 81.5 MPH from 83.1 MPH. This has us questioning if the current strikeout rate is even sustainable.
Nice Stuff+
Patrick has pitched well in his first taste of the Major Leagues, and he deserves better than his 2-3 record. That is because the rookie has yet to pitch a bad game in the majors while being a model of consistency, allowing three earned runs or less in all eight big-starts while posting a 3.19 ERA. Granted his strikeout rate of 7.65/9 could be better, but he has the stuff to increase that figure.
And we mean “stuff” literally, as in Stuff+. Chad has a vast arsenal of five different pitches, and while there are other pitchers that can make that claim, Patrick has a Stuff+ over 100 in three of them in his fastball (105), cutter (107) and slider (106). Even his sinker is rated 96, which is quite good for a fourth-best pitch. The lone outlier is his change-up at 85, but that is more of a “show me” pitch he has thrown just 5.5% of the time.
The Pick
So, with Patrick showing nice promise, Ryan being a regression candidate based on his hard air contact allowed and Milwaukee being available at an underdog price, we are betting on the Brewers at home.
Predicted Score: Brewers 4 – Twins 3
MLB Pick: Brewers ML (+101) at Heritage Sports (visit our Heritage Sports Review)
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
