MLB Best Bets for May 14: Crown Royals to Upset vs. Rookie Starter
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LT Profits
- May 14, 2025
Top MLB Pick: Royals ML (+120) at Bookmaker (visit our Bookmaker Review)
We now have a sparkling 23-11 record in our last 34 Major League Baseball picks after a 3-0 sweep last night, which included an underdog winner at odds of +121. We return to a huge 17-game slate of MLB betting matchups for Wednesday with every team in action, including two make-up doubleheaders. And we again have the three selections that we feel have the most betting value at the current MLB odds available.
These best bets are based mostly on our proprietary model, with our three plays for Wednesday night consisting of one side, one Over and one Under. The first pitch for our first play tonight is at 7:14pm ET.
Chicago White Sox vs. Cincinnati Reds
Wednesday, May 14, 2025 – 7:14 PM EDT at Great American Ball Park
We are expecting a relatively high-scoring affair in the Queen City on Wednesday and are thus backing the Over when Davis Martin and the White Sox pay a visit to Nick Lodolo and the Reds.
Decreased Strikeouts
The White Sox have the worst record in the American League at 13-29 and Martin does not look like the pitcher to stop the bleeding. He comes in at 1-4 with a 4.01 ERA and 4.45 xFIP through seven starts, covering 42.2 innings. He has pitched to a lot of contact, with much of it being hard, which is a bad omen when pitching in a hitters’ park like Great American Ball Park.
Davis has seen a steep decline in his strikeout all the way down to 5.91/9 this year from 8.46 last season, making for a weak K/BB ratio when accompanied by a 2.53/9 walk rate. Moreover, the decreased strikeouts do not look like an anomaly considering Martin’s puny 7.5% swinging strike rate, also way down from 12.1% last year. And worst of all, batters are getting good swings, with his hard-contact rate up to 31.9% from 29.0% in 2024.
Moreover, Martin cannot count on much help from a White Sox bullpen that ranks 28th out of 30 teams in xFIP at 4.60.
xFIP Higher than ERA
Now, Lodolo is 3-3 with a good 3.23 ERA, but that latter figure loses its luster when compared to his 4.04 xFIP. This is a pitcher with a career 4.32 ERA, and the current xFIP points to expected regression with the ERA likely to rise closer to his career level. Adding to that projection is his lucky BABIP allowed thus far of .255.
Like his opponent Martin, Nick has also shown a sharp decline in his strikeout rate since last year to 7.23/9 from 9.52, with the current level being a career low since entering the majors in 2022. And, also like his opponent, that fall-off looks legitimate with his swinging strike rate at a career low 9.8%. Lodolo’s average fastball velocity of 93.3 MPH is down from 94.1 MPH last season, with the current fastball Stuff+ of 99 being yet another career low.
Furthermore, we are skeptical about the 3.54 ERA of the Cincinnati bullpen, as that unit is just two spots above the White Sox in xFIP, ranking 26th at 4.54.
So, in a matchup of two starting pitchers that have each become more hittable since last season and two vulnerable bullpens, we are betting on the Over in Cincinnati Wednesday night.
Predicted Score: Reds 6 – White Sox 5
MLB Pick: Over 9 (+100) at Bovada (visit our Bovada Review)
Colorado Rockies vs. Texas Rangers
Wednesday, May 14, 2025 – 8:05 PM EDT at Globe Life Field
In a case of “If it ain’t broke, don’t fix it”, we are going right back to the well and betting on the Under in Arlington again on Wednesday when Patrick Corbin and the Rangers host Antonio Senzatela and the Rockies.
Pitchers’ Paradise So Far
As we mentioned before winning our bet on the Under here last night, Globe Life Park has been the most pitcher-friendly park in baseball so far this season, with another winning Under on Tuesday bringing the record to an amazing 18-4 in this stadium.
And Corbin has certainly enjoyed these new surroundings after previously spending his entire career in the National League with the Diamondbacks and Nationals. Patrick was sadly the butt end of many jokes while considered by many to be the worst starter in baseball between 2021 and last season, during which time his best ERA was 5.20 in 2023. However, he has shown marked improvement in his first year in Texas despite his record being only 2-2.
To wit, that record comes with a totally unexpected 3.13 ERA over six starts! Patrick allowed three runs in his Rangers debut, and he has proceeded to allow two runs or less in each of his last five outings, most recently limiting the Tigers to two runs on only three hits in seven innings on Friday. He continues to feature the slider as his most frequently thrown pitch at 34.4% of the time, and that pitch currently has its highest Stuff+ rating since 2021 at 100.
Now, Corbin gets to face the worst team in baseball, with the Rockies off to a historically bad start with a record of 7-35. The Colorado offense ranks dead last in the majors in wRC+ against right-handed pitchers at a woeful 68, with that already atrocious figure dropping to an unimaginable 49 away from Coors Field!
Not Bad on Road
Given that we do not expect the Rockies to do much against Corbin, Senzatela could afford to give up a few runs here while still having this game stay Under the total. Yes, he is just 1-6 in eight starts with an unsightly 5.77 ERA after surrendering eight runs in 4.2 innings on Friday, although only four of those runs were earned. However, he should appreciate going from pitching in the altitude of Colorado to now hurling in a pitchers’ park.
In fact, Antonio has a noticeably better xFIP of 4.66 overall, and he has a good 3.79 ERA on the road, not allowing more than four runs in any of his four starts at sea level. He has also been unlucky in allowing an abnormally high BABIP of .392, which does not figure to continue.
Summing all of this up, Corbin has rejuvenated his career in his first year in the American League, Senzatela has been understandably better on the road and scoring has been scarce in this stadium all year. So, we are backing the Under in Texas on Wednesday.
Predicted Score: Rangers 4 – Rockies 3
MLB Pick: Under 9 (-108) at Heritage Sports (visit our Heritage Sports Review)
Kansas City Royals vs. Houston Astros
Wednesday, May 14, 2025 – 8:10 PM EDT at Daikin Park
We think the years of the Astros dominating the American League West are over, and we are backing Michael Lorenzen and the Royals at an underdog price when they take on rookie Colton Gordon, who is making his Major League debut in Houston.
Rounding Back to Form
The Royals come in third in the AL Central with a good 25-19 mark, 3.5 games behind the first-place Tigers. Granted, Lorenzen has not been the same pitcher since being overextended while pitching a no-hitter in his All-Star season of 2023, but he is finally showing signs of returning to that form. He enters at 3-3 for the season, but with a 3.57 ERA although the xFIP is higher at 4.22. Still, both of those figures have been heading in the right direction lately.
Michael has allowed one run or less in three of his last four starts. Moreover, he is coming off his best start of the season Friday against the Red Sox where he tossed seven scoreless innings, allowing only three hits with seven strikeouts and not a single walk. His overall strikeout rate is above average at 7.94/9, but that is also on the rise with the K-Rate at 8.75/9 in those last four starts.
He now gets to face a Houston offense that has not been nearly as potent as past seasons, ranking 19th in the league in OPS vs. right-handed pitchers at a lackluster .703.
Favored in Debut?
The Astros are uncharacteristically fourth in the West with a 21-20 record, with the decreased production of the offense relative to prior years being a big reason. Now, they are calling up Gordon from Triple-A to make his debut, and we are questioning the youngster being favored here facing a team with a better record and a hot starting pitcher.
Colton was 4-0 with a 2.55 ERA in the minors, but he is not a highly regarded prospect after being chosen 238th in the 2021 MLB draft. More importantly, the peripherals in Triple-A this year do not support the ERA. The xFIP stands at only 3.94 and he is not at all overpowering with the fastball averaging just 91.1 MPH. And this is a guy that posted ERAs of 3.94 and 4.14 respectively in his first two years at the Triple-A level, more in line with this year’s xFIP.
In a nutshell, we do not consider Gordon to be anything special and certainly do not think he is as good as his minor-league ERA this season. With Lorenzen showing signs of returning to his All-Star form from a couple of years ago, bet on the Royals as underdogs in this spot.
Predicted Score: Royals 5 – Astros 4
MLB Pick: Royals ML (+120) at Bookmaker
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
