MLB Pick: Red Sox ML (+101) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
It’s already over for the Toronto Blue Jays. They may have avoided a full-on franchise collapse by signing 1B Vladimir Guerrero Jr. to that massive $500-million contract extension, but the 2025 MLB regular season has gone sideways for Toronto; they’ve dropped eight of their last nine to sit at 13-16 (minus-2.63 betting units) as we go to press.
Meanwhile, the Boston Red Sox have shaken off their slow start, winning three straight to take over second place in the American League East at 17-14 (minus-0.44 units). Boston beat the Blue Jays 10-2 in Tuesday’s series opener as –130 road faves, and we’re sticking with the Sox at +101 on the MLB odds board at BetOnline for Thursday’s finale. It’s a moral imperative.
Boston Red Sox vs. Toronto Blue Jays
Thursday, May 1, 2025 – 7:07 PM ET Rogers Centre
What Happened to the Blue Jays?
They got played – again. Last year, Shohei Ohtani made it look like he was seriously considering the Blue Jays as a free-agent destination before ultimately signing with the Los Angeles Dodgers; this offseason, Juan Soto did the same before landing with the New York Mets.
Toronto desperately needed those big bats. They were coming off a 2024 campaign where they finished No. 11 in offensive FanGraphs WAR at plus-22.6, and No. 13 in wRC+ at 101; after shedding a number of impending free agents ahead of the deadline, the Jays wanted Soto for 2025, but had to settle for 2B Andres Gimenez (formerly with Cleveland) and RF/DH Anthony Santander (formerly with Baltimore).
At least Gimenez (.562 OPS) brought his Gold Glove up north. Santander (.554 OPS) has been an unmitigated disaster for Toronto, leaving them No. 21 on this year’s WAR charts and No. 25 with a 90 wRC+. Boston (No. 3 WAR, No. 6 in wRC+ at 111) is crushing it by comparison.
Who’s Pitching?
This is where the Jays should have the advantage Thursday night. Opening Day starter Jose Berrios (4.34 xFIP) is due up for Toronto, while the Sox are in the middle of their nominal rotation with Tanner Houck (4.21 xFIP). However, as you can see by those xFIP numbers, our projected starters have performed about the same thus far.
You wouldn’t know it by the results. Boston lost five of Houck’s six starts for a loss of 3.81 units, but his 7.58 ERA has been fueled by a ridiculously high .356 BABIP against, and a very low 59.6% rate for runners stranded. And Houck’s best start of the year was on April 9 against these same Blue Jays; he held Toronto to one earned run over 6.2 innings, only to see the Jays (+109 away) prevail 2-1 in 11 innings.
As for Berrios, his peripheral stats are pretty much in line with his 4.24 ERA, so there’s not much room for upside with that 3-2 team record and 0.12 units in earnings after five starts. Good thing for Toronto, they’ve got their bullpen (No. 11 on the WAR charts) back up and running – except they’re also behind Boston (No. 4) in this department.
The Pick
Maybe we’re writing off the Jays a little early. They haven’t even played 30 games yet, so Toronto’s sample size is still a bit small; Santander (.208 BABIP) in particular could see some positive regression, although he may never recreate the career-best hitting numbers he put up last year at the end of his Orioles contract. Having said that, the Jays “should” have a record of 10-19 this year given their minus-35 run differential. Bet accordingly, and may the sphere be with you.
MLB Pick: Red Sox ML (+101) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
