MLB Best Bets for June 4: Phillies Not Abel to Limit Scoring vs. Jays & Berrios
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LT Profits
- June 4, 2025
Top MLB Pick: Phillies-Blue Jays Over 9 (-118) at Bookmaker (visit our Bookmaker Review)
We had a winning 2-1 night on Tuesday including an underdog winner at odds of +122, making us a solid 37-23 in our last 60 Major League Baseball picks. We are back on Wednesday for another full 15-game slate of MLB betting matchups with all teams in action. And we again have the three best bets that we feel have the most betting value at the current MLB odds from top sportsbooks.
These best bets are based mostly on our proprietary model, with the three selections for Wednesday consisting of one underdog, one Over and one Under. And if you’re looking for more value picks, make sure to take a look at our YouTube channel for more daily betting advice for today, featuring the Twins vs. Athletics and Mets vs. Dodgers games.
Houston Astros vs. Pittsburgh Pirates
Wednesday, June 04, 2025 – 06:40 PM EDT at PNC Park
We do not think that Ryan Gusto of the Astros has done enough in his rookie season to be such a decided favorite on the road as he is here. Therefore, we are backing Mike Burrows and the Pirates as home underdogs in PNC Park.
Not Ready for Prime Time?
The rookie Ryan Gusto has made 13 appearances so far during his first taste of the Major Leagues with seven of them coming as a starter, and he has been mediocre at best regardless of his role. He comes in at 3-2 with a 4.62 ERA and 4.45 xFIP, and control issues have run up his pitch counts early as of late, limiting him to 3.2 and 4.1 innings in his last two starts respectively.
Yes, he has a good strikeout rate of 9.69/9, but that has been offset by his ugly walk rate of 4.38/9, continuing his pattern of wildness displayed at all his minor league stops. He also has a bad combination of a low groundball rate of 35.1% and a high hard contact rate of 31.9%. As you might expect with that profile, Ryan has struggled to keep the ball in the yard with a high home run rate allowed of 1.38/9.
The only reason Gusto is starting right now is because the Astros have a depleted staff due to injuries, as he looks like a pitcher that could use some more seasoning in the minors.
Nice Potential
Now, we totally get that Mike Burrows has struggled over his first two Major League starts allowing eight earned runs in 8.1 innings with only five strikeouts. But he is the much more highly regarded prospect between these two starters and his call-up to the majors was inevitable.
That is because he had little left to prove while going up the minor league ranks. He was sitting with a 2.51 ERA and a bloated strikeout rate of 11.41/9 in Triple-A at the time of his recall on May 21st. While the strikeouts have not come yet at the big-league level with only five in his 8.1 innings, he does have a good enough swinging strike rate of 10.3% to suggest positive regression expected in that regard. Another encouraging sign is his 34.5% soft contact rate early on.
Moreover, he is facing a Houston offense that has not been nearly as formidable as past seasons, especially with a wRC+ of only 83 against right-handers on the road.
This selection comes down to the price. While Burrows has yet to show his vast potential over a limited sampling of two starts, the fact that the potential exists makes the Pirates worth betting as home underdogs against a pitcher in Gusto that is not much more than an injury-replacement starter.
Predicted Score: Pirates 5 – Astros 3
MLB Pick: Pirates ML (+124) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue Jays
Wednesday, June 04, 2025 – 07:07 PM EDT at Rogers Centre
We are expecting a high scoring game north of the border on Wednesday with the final total output getting into double digits. Thus, we are betting on the Over when Mick Abel and the Phillies visit Jose Berrios and the Blue Jays in Toronto.
Is He the Answer?
The Phillies finally made the right move by demoting Taijuan Walker to the bullpen, and they are recalling Abel from Triple-A to take his rotation spot. However, we are not confident that Mick Abel is the answer either despite dazzling in his only Major League start, tossing six scoreless in with nine strikeouts and not a single walk against the Pirates on May 18th.
Frankly, we do not expect him to duplicate that effort in his second big-league start against a better offense, particularly the part about not walking a batter. You see, Mick struggled with control at all his minor league stops, including owning a walk rate of 4.11/9 in Triple-A this season. In fact, his walk rate has been over 4.00/9 at every single minor league stop of his career, with his best xFIP for any season being 4.11 in A-ball in his first professional season.
That xFIP has had a disturbing upward projection ever since, culminating at 5.31 in Triple-A last season when he had a hideous walk rate of 6.46/9 over 108.2 innings. Now, he must contend with a Toronto offense with a slightly above average wRC+ of 103 against right-handers overall, but that figure is much higher at 121 (21% above average) here at home.
Velocity Down, Walks Up
Jose Berrios has been solid but not exceptional at the age of 31 this year, coming in at 2-2 with a 3.86 ERA and a 4.11 xFIP. However, the veteran is showing signs of decline in his peripherals as Father Time may be starting to catch up to him.
For starters, his average fastball velocity is at a career low at 93.1 MPH, and keep in mind that he was over 94 MPH over his first two starts this season, with the average dipping to 92.8 MPH in his last 10 starts. This has resulted in a career-worst overall Stuff+ of 91 including a paltry 89 for his fastball. Another concern is Jose’s uptick in walks to 3.60/9, up more than one walk per game from 2.53/9 last year.
That makes this a poor matchup against a disciplined Phillies’ lineup that ranks fifth in the Major Leagues in offensive walk rate at 9.5%.
Thus, we foresee a lot of traffic on the bases for both teams tonight, and we have yet to mention the Philadelphia bullpen ranking 25th in the majors in ERA at 4.67. All of this has us backing the Over in Rogers Centre on Wednesday.
Predicted Score: Phillies 6 – Blue Jays 5
MLB Pick: Over 9 (-118) at Bookmaker
Texas Rangers vs. Tampa Bay Rays
Wednesday, June 04, 2025 – 07:35 PM EDT at George M. Steinbrenner Field
The Texas Rangers continue to have the worst offense in baseball since May 1st, and that is a key reason to support the Under on Wednesday with Shane Baz and the Rays hosting Kumar Rocker in Tampa.
Better Than the ERA
Kumar Rocker is being activated from the injured list to make his sixth start of the season, and do not be fooled by his 8.10 ERA through 20 innings. That is because he was clearly bothered by the shoulder injury that landed him on the IL in his last start on April 23rd, when he was charged with five earned runs in 1.2 innings. That will skew the ERA over a limited sampling, but the better indication of Rocker’s ability is his much more respectable 3.96 xFIP.
Kumar posted a 3.86 ERA with an excellent strikeout rate of 10.80/9 as a rookie last season, and we see no reason why he cannot return to that form if he is now truly healthy. If we toss that last start blaming the shoulder injury, Rocker had a Stuff+ of 96 over his first four starts, right in line with his overall 97 last season. He is also still inducing a 46.6% groundball rate this year thanks to his heavy 95.2 MPH sinker that merited a 117 Stuff+ last season.
New Pitch
Shane Baz has added a new pitch to his repertoire this season in the knuckle-curve, and he has thrown it more and more as the season has gone on to the point where it is now his second most frequent pitch at 32.6%. More importantly, that pitch has garnered an incredible 127 Stuff+ rating with its obscene downward movement.
That is a great sign for a pitcher that is a nondescript 4-3 with a 4.92 ERA through 11 starts covering 60.2 innings. The xFIP is better though at 4.00 and Shane has a great groundball rate of 50.0%. We see more good things for Baz down the line as he continues to incorporate the knuckle-curve, resulting in improvement in all his other metrics.
And of course, facing the Texas offense is never a bad thing these days. The Rangers are 27th in the Major Leagues for the full season in wRC+ against right-handed pitchers at 83. Moreover, they are dead last in team batting average since May 1st at a pathetic .210!
So, what we have here is an offense that has been historically bad for the past month and two pitchers that both show positive signals to improve their season numbers so far. That makes the Under our best bet in Tampa Wednesday night.
Predicted Score: Rays 4 – Rangers 2
MLB Pick: Under 9 (-118) at at Heritage Sports (visit our Heritage Sports Review)
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
