MLB Best Bets for June 3: Reds to Make Brewers Greene with Envy
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LT Profits
- June 3, 2025
Top MLB Pick: Reds ML (-112) at Heritage Sports (visit our Heritage Sports Review)
Despite going just 1-2 on Friday, we are still a very solid 35-22 in our last 57 Major League Baseball picks with some nice underdog winners. We now return on Tuesday to a full 15-game slate of MLB betting matchups with every team in action. And, as usual, we have the three best bets that we feel have the most betting value at the current MLB odds from top sportsbooks.
These best bets are based mostly on our proprietary model, with all three selections for Tuesday being sides comprised of two underdogs and one small favorite.
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue Jays
Tuesday, June 03, 2025 – 07:07 PM EDT at Rogers Centre
We are calling for an upset north of the border on Tuesday and are backing Bowden Francis and the underdog Blue Jays when they host Cristopher Sanchez and the Phillies in Toronto.
Coming Off Best Start
Bowden Francis was highly regarded when he was first called up and he went 8-5 with a spiffy 3.30 ERA over 103.2 innings in his third season in the Major Leagues last season. However, he already has more losses than that through 11 starts this year, sitting at just 2-6 with a 5.04 ERA, although his xFIP is a bit better at 4.47.
But the fact is that Bowden has mostly pitched well while allowing three earned runs or less in eight of those 11 starts, with the frontline statistics skewed by his three bad starts being rather atrocious. He is back in a good cycle now though, as he tossed five scoreless innings while allowing three hits with six strikeouts against just one walk last time out. That came after allowing two runs again on only three hits in his previous start.
One issue for Francis has been longevity as he has gone beyond six innings just once this season. However, that may not be a bad thing as the Toronto bullpen ranks second in the majors in xFIP at 3.54 while also sporting a good 3.47 ERA.
Facing Good Lineup vs. Lefties
The southpaw Sanchez is having a good season at 4-1 with a 3.32 ERA and an excellent 2.98 xFIP through 59.2 innings. However, we are concerned about his control issues, especially when facing a good lineup here tonight. He has been able to maintain his ERA and xFIP despite an overall walk rate of 3.32/9 this season.
And not only is Cristopher Sanchez not showing improvement in that regard, but the command has gotten worse lately with the walk rate up to 3.72/9 over his last six starts. This has led to elevated pitch counts not allowing him to go beyond six innings in any of those last six outings, including two starts of 4.2 innings and five innings respectively. That is more of a concern for the Phillies, as unlike the reliable Toronto bullpen, the Philadelphia pen ranks just 25th with a 4.65 ERA.
Moreover, Sanchez will be facing a Toronto offense that has been at its best against left-handed pitchers, ranking fifth in the league in wRC+ against them at 119 including a blistering 147 here at home!
What we have here is a pitcher in Francis that is better than his frontline stats while in great current form, and one in Sanchez that may be primed for negative regression due to control issues facing a great lineup. This has us betting on the Blue Jays as home underdogs in Rogers Centre.
Predicted Score: Blue Jays 5 – Phillies 4
MLB Pick: Blue Jays ML (+127) at Bookmaker (visit our Bookmaker Review)
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Cincinnati Reds
Tuesday, June 03, 2025 – 07:10 PM EDT at Great American Ball Park
Hunter Greene of the Reds has quietly been one of the best pitchers in the National League this season, and we are betting on him as a rather cheap favorite at home Tuesday hosting Freddy Peralta and the Brewers.
Sensational Command
Hunter Greene is a fireballer that has harnessed his command in his fourth Major League season. Do not be fooled by the 4-3 record, as he has an excellent 2.63 ERA and 3.24 xFIP through 10 starts with a sensational K/BB ratio of 10.87/1.81 per nine innings. That is easily the best walk rate of his career and way down from the 3.41/9 rate last season.
Hunter has always had the arm to succeed in the majors, and that has not changed this year with the fastball averaging a career best 99.3 MPH while topping 100 MPH on many occasions. That fastball rates 117 on Stuff+ and he has also incorporated a slider with the same motion as the fastball with late break that rates a fantastic 143 on Stuff+. That combination has led to a terrific swinging strike rate of 15.3% that is also a lifetime best.
Given that arm and vastly improved control, Greene can get himself into the Cy Young Award conversation if Cincinnati can give him enough support to improve his record.
xFIP Don’t Lie
Now, Freddy Peralta is a pitcher that has always had great metrics that should have made his record better than it was almost every year. However, we think the opposite is true this season despite him being 5-3 with a 2.72 ERA, as for the first time in his career, it is his xFIP that is considerably worse than the ERA at 4.13.
Freddy has been greatly aided by the Luck Stats that have him with a .249 BABIP allowed and a ridiculous 85.5% strand rate through 65 innings. That has masked the fact that while he has a very good strikeout rate of 9.14/9, that is still noticeably down from 10.36/9 last season while his walk rate of 3.60/9 is at its highest point since 2020.
Perhaps most disturbingly, Peralta has been unable to work deeply into games as of late, failing to last longer than 5.1 innings in any of his last four starts. That becomes especially concerning with the Milwaukee bullpen ranking 22nd in the majors with a 4.49 ERA.
So, we give Greene the huge edge in the starting pitchers here at this stage of their careers, and the shaky Milwaukee pen makes the overall pitching edge for Cincinnati even bigger. Therefore, back the Reds as modest home chalk on Tuesday.
Predicted Score: Reds 5 – Brewers 3
MLB Pick: Reds ML (-112) at Heritage Sports
Los Angeles Angels vs. Boston Red Sox
Tuesday, June 03, 2025 – 07:10 PM EDT at Fenway Park
After holding on and winning the series opener 7-6 here in Fenway Park last night, we are looking for the Angels to post their second road upset in as many nights Tuesday with Yusei Kikuchi on the mound visiting Brayan Bello and the Red Sox.
Strikeouts Down, Walks Up
Brayan Bello showed some nice potential over his first three years in the majors, but he appears to have taken a step back this year after spending the first month of the season on the injured list. While he is 2-1 in eight starts after a belated season debut with a decent 3.83 ERA, his xFIP is worse at 4.47 and his red flags do not end there.
Brayan may not yet be fully healthy with his average fastball velocity of 94.8 MPH being the lowest of his career, and he is struggling with his command more than he ever has. This has resulted in a brutal K/BB ratio of 6.53/4.95 per nine innings after that ratio stood at 8.48/3.55 last season.
Batters are not missing pitches with his swinging strike rate in the single digits for the first time in the majors at a weak 8.0%. Worst of all, most of that extra contact has been hard with Bello owning a poor soft/hard contact ratio of 10.2% / 33.6%!
Unlucky Record
The veteran southpaw Yusei Kikuchi is probably unlucky to be 1-5, as that record comes with a 3.06 ERA over 12 starts covering 64.2 innings. Granted his xFIP is an ugly 4.66 due to the return of the walk issues that plagued him earlier in his career that he appeared to have fixed over the last two years. But nonetheless he has remained amazingly consistent while pitching around those walks.
Yusei has allowed three earned runs or less in 10 of his 12 starts, and he allowed exactly four runs on the other two occasions, so he has yet to be truly lit up this season. While his strikeouts are down this year to 8.07/9 from 10.55/9 last season, that has been offset by a huge rise in his soft contact rate to 18.4% from 13.6%. That is an indication of Kikuchi’s “guile” at the age of 33 with his ability to miss the barrel of the bat with his varied four-pitch arsenal.
In a nutshell, we simply do not trust Bello right now as he does not appear to be back to full health after a delayed start to his year, so we are going for the underdog value and betting on the Angels at a nice price with the wily Kikuchi on the bump.
Predicted Score: Angels 5 – Red Sox 3
MLB Pick: Angels ML (+122) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
