Top MLB Pick: Red Sox ML (+147) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
Top-rated sportsbooks have released their odds for today’s baseball action. Three games, in particular, interest me as worth investing in: Cardinals vs. Brewers, Rockies vs. Braves, and Yankees vs. Red Sox.
For your best bets, I will recommend investing in Brewers full-game money-line, Rockies-Braves first-five “under,” and Red Sox full-game money-line.
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Milwaukee Brewers
Saturday, June 14, 2025 – 04:10 PM EDT at American Family Field
Outlook for Jose Quintana
Milwaukee starts Jose Quintana tonight.
Quintana, who was also in St. Louis’ division when he played for the Cubs, has accumulated a lot of experience against the Cardinals. Most recently, on April 27, he held them to one run in five innings in St. Louis. Overall, Cardinals batters slug .247, with all of six extra-base hits in 77 at-bats, against him. Nolan Arenado, for example, is 2-for-24 against him.
When Quintana is facing the Cardinals, you have to trust him to play well.
Outlook for Cardinals’ Starter
St. Louis starts Andre Pallante today.
Pallante’s most recent — and only — start against the Brewers took place last year. In that start, he allowed five earned runs in five innings.
That start contributed to the strong track record of Milwaukee’s lineup against Pallante. Collectively, they slug .575 with Pallante on the mound. Six different Brewers batters slug at least .500 against him.
Full-Game Play
The Brewers are worth a full-game investment because of their bullpen advantage. Through two games in this series, Milwaukee’s bullpen has allowed one run in seven innings.
Milwaukee’s relievers, whose collective ERA is 1.35 better than St. Louis’ bullpen, will secure the lead that Quintana and their lineup help them have.
MLB Pick: Brewers ML (-120) at BetOnline
Colorado Rockies vs. Atlanta Braves
Saturday, June 14, 2025 – 04:10 PM EDT at Truist Park
Rockies Away From Home
Colorado’s lineup is disastrous away from its high-altitude, super hitters-friendly ballpark.
The Rockies score the fewest runs per game on the road — they are one of two teams to average fewer than three runs away from home.
Not Concerned About Atlanta’s Starter
Spencer Strider starts for the Braves tonight. His ERA looks awful, so should we be concerned about him?
Note that he’s only had five starts this year. So, the data sample is small. Two of those starts skew his ERA because they were awful — he was hit hard by the Nationals and Diamondbacks, respectively. Both teams, though, hit tremendously better than Colorado does, especially outside of Coors Field.
Strider’s last start was actually great. His ERA in that start was bad, but his 2.91 FIP (like ERA but factors out fielding) shows how well he truly performed. His FIP in that start shows how good his form is and suggests that he is primed to experience starts where his ERA is low.
Strider vs. Rockies Batters
With his pitching repertoire, Strider’s ERA is going to be excellent in today’s start. His favorite pitches are a four-seam fastball and slider. Outside of their home venue, the Rockies slug .322 against these two pitches from righties.
Expect Ryan McMahon, for example, to struggle. He is hitless in five at-bats against Strider.
Outlook for Colorado’s Starter
Chase Dollander starts for Colorado today.
Dollander has a good mix of pitches with which he balances strong velocity with low velocity and high pitch location with low pitch location. His favorite pitches are his fastball (which averages 97.5 mph), his curveball (which averages almost 20 fewer mph), a cutter, and a changeup.
His last start was terrible, sure, but the Mets are uniquely well-equipped to handle his pitches. They rank fourth in slugging against those pitches from righties.
I like Dollander today because Atlanta ranks 26th with a .367 slugging rate against his favorite pitches from righties. Atlanta’s lineup, moreover, is in a let-down spot after exploding for over ten runs yesterday. It always declines significantly after such an explosion. Oddsmakers don’t account for this sort of situational reality when they post such a high over/under.
With both starting pitchers thriving today, first-five “under” is the right play.
MLB Pick: First-Five Under 4.5 (+105) at BetOnline
New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox
Saturday, June 14, 2025 – 07:15 PM EDT at Fenway Park
Don’t Fear The Yankees
The Yankees are supposed to be a dominant force, whereas the Red Sox are supposed to have declined relative to what they used to be. But the Red Sox have now beaten the Yankees three times in a row.
Today, they get to face a pitcher in Carlos Rodón, whom they own a superb track record against. Their collective slugging rate is .489 with Rodon on the mound. Five different Boston batters slug .600 or better against him.
Full-Game Play
Boston’s pitching will protect the lead that its lineup procures.
Red Sox starter Hunter Dobbins gets to face a cold Yankees lineup that has scored a combined total of two runs in its last two games, totaling 19 innings. The Red Sox bullpen, moreover, has a 1.59 lower ERA than New York’s.
The Yankees are wrongly favored today. Their starting pitcher has a stronger general reputation than Dobbins, but Boston’s batters love to face him. Likewise, their lineup is supposed to be great, but it is cold right now. To top it off, the Red Sox bullpen is fresher, and not merely better than New York’s, since its starter pitched way more innings than New York’s did yesterday.
MLB Pick: Red Sox ML (+147) at BetOnline
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
