Top MLB Pick: Blue Jays ML (+104) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
We had a 1-1-1 split on Wednesday, still leaving us at a solid 42-25-2 in our last 69 Major League Baseball picks at the top-rated sportsbooks. We now return to this spooky Friday the 13th full 15-game slate of MLB betting matchups with every team in action. And, as usual, we have the three best bets that we feel have the most betting value at the current MLB odds available.
These best bets are based mostly on our proprietary model, with our three selections for Friday consisting of two underdog sides and one total. And if you’re looking for more value picks, make sure to take a look at our YouTube channel for more daily betting advice.
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Philadelphia Phillies
Friday, June 13, 2025 – 06:45 PM EDT at Citizens Bank Park
It is possible that the wrong team is favored in Philadelphia on Friday when Kevin Gausman and the Blue Jays visit Ranger Suárez and the Phillies. With Philadelphia missing key pieces both in the lineup and in the bullpen, we are backing Toronto at an underdog price.
Turning Back Time?
Now 34 years old, not only is Gausman not showing any signs of decline, but he has also improved on some key metrics since last season. While he enters this contest with an unlucky 5-4 record, that mark comes with a 3.87 ERA and a better 3.54 xFIP though 13 starts while allowing three runs of less in six of his last seven starts.
For starters, that xFIP is a marked improvement from 4.22 last year, with that uptick keyed by an improved K/BB ratio. That ratio is currently at 8.57/2.00 per nine innings after standing at 8.06/2.78 last season. This year’s ratio is validated by a 12.2% swinging strike rate (10.9% last year) and a 107 Location+. Even his velocity has improved to 94.4 MPH from 93.9 MPH in 2024, helping result in an overall Stuff+ of 102 with three of his four pitches rated 102 or better.
Kevin is facing a Phillies lineup with an above-average wRC+ of 104 vs. right-handers overall, but that figure now takes a big hit with Bryce Harper on the injured list. Also, should Gausman need some relief, he has the support of a Toronto bullpen that now leads the Major Leagues in xFIP at 3.52.
Comparable xFIPs
Granted, Suárez is 4-1 through seven starts while sporting a 2.70 ERA, although that is over only 43.1 innings after missing some time to injury. More importantly, his noticeably higher xFIP of 3.49 lines up closely with Gausman’s, with the latter having the benefit of being at an underdog price.
Ranger also lags behind Gausman in other areas, starting with Suárez having a lower K/BB ratio at 7.89/2.28 per nine innings. His swinging-strike rate of 9.1% is at its lowest point since 2020, and he has a subpar 96 Stuff+ overall, including a disturbing 84 for his fastball. In fact, his only pitch rated over 100 on Stuff+, the slider, is his least thrown pitch at only 3.2% of the time.
And once Ranger departs, the Phillies’ bullpen ranks 24th in the majors with a 4.56 ERA. Moreover, that already bad unit is currently without its best member, with Jose Alvarado (2.70 ERA, 2.21 xFIP, seven saves) now serving an 80-game suspension after testing positive for a PED.
The Pick
In the end, we have Gausman graded as the better starter in this matchup, and Toronto has the much better bullpen. Add in the absences of Harper and Alvarado for the Phils and we are betting on the Blue Jays as underdogs in the City of Brotherly Love.
Predicted Score: Blue Jays 5 – Phillies 3
MLB Pick: Blue Jays ML (+104) at BetOnline
The Athletics vs. Kansas City Royals
Friday, June 13, 2025 – 08:10 PM EDT at Kauffman Stadium
We see some nice underdog-value in Kansas City on Friday night. Therefore, we are betting on Luis Severino and the Athletics at a square price visiting Michael Wacha and the Royals.
Deceptive ERA
Wacha enters at 3-5, although he does have a good 3.01 ERA. However, we are not believers in that ERA as his xFIP is much higher at 4.30 and he has benefited in the Luck Stat department with an 80.6% strand rate. That rate would be high for an average pitcher, but it is especially high for a pitcher who does not strike out many batters to get out of jams.
And unfortunately, Michael falls into that category with a strikeout rate of only 6.63/9, which is the lowest of his career that began way back in 2013. Now 33 years old, Wacha’s velocity is down to 93.2 MPH and his swinging strike rate has dipped into single digits, to 9.4% from 10.4% last season. He is also not generating as many groundballs with his change-up as he used to, with that rate at an ordinary 39.5% this year.
Besides his peripherals not supporting the deceptive ERA, Wacha is facing a quietly good Athletics offense against right-handed pitchers, as they are eighth in the majors in wRC+ against them at 110.
Bounce-Back Expected
Now, we get that Severino comes off an awful outing where he allowed six runs on eight hits plus four walks in 5.2 innings, but that was against a Baltimore offense that has been great against right-handed pitching. That is not the case with his opponents from Kansas City tonight, as the Royals rank 27th out of 30 teams in wRC+ against righties overall at 88 and dead last (30th) in that metric when playing at home at a pathetic 76.
Thus, we expect a bounce-back effort from Luis here, as even though he is 1-6 with a 4.77 ERA, his xFIP of 4.36 lines up with Wacha, which is always a good sign for a decided underdog. He also grades out well on Stuff+ at 107 overall, including a very impressive 133 for a slider that has now become his most frequently thrown pitch.
The Pick
So, we do not think there is as much separation between these two starters as their respective ERA would suggest, and the Athletics grade out much better offensively. This has us going for the value here by playing on the A’s at a nice price.
Predicted Score: Athletics 4 – Royals 3
MLB Pick: Athletics ML (+137) at Heritage Sports (check our Heritage Sports Review)
Minnesota Twins vs. Houston Astros
Friday, June 13, 2025 – 08:10 PM EDT at Daikin Park
We do not expect many fireworks in Houston on Friday. Thus, we are banking on an Under when Colton Gordon and the Astros host Chris Paddack and the Twins.
Great Potential
We remain high on the southpaw rookie Gordon despite his 5.11 ERA, and he is coming off his first Major League win against the Guardians, allowing one run in five innings with five strikeouts and no walks. That improved him to 1-1 in his first taste of the majors and, as usual, his very good xFIP of 3.29 is a better gauge of his ability than the bloated ERA.
Colton has an outstanding K/BB ratio of 9.12/1.09 per nine innings keyed by a biting slider, rated 116 on Stuff+, and his low walk rate is validated by his 110 on Location+. He has also been very unlucky with a BABIP allowed of .370, so his ERA should converge downward toward the xFIP as that stabilizes.
Gordon is facing a Minnesota lineup ranked in the bottom half of the league in wRC+ against left-handed pitchers, ranking 16th against them at 87 (13% below average). He also has the support of a good Houston bullpen ranked fifth in the majors in both xFIP (3.77) and ERA (3.26).
Deserves Better
Paddack deserves better than his 2-5 record as he sports a 3.53 ERA through 13 starts and has allowed three earned runs or less in 12 consecutive starts since getting lit up in his season debut. If we toss that initial outing where he surrendered nine earned runs in 3.1 innings, he has posted a spiffy 2.51 ERA since then. His last start against the Blue Jays was a microcosm of his season, as he had to settle for a no-decision despite allowing two runs and only four hits in six innings.
Chris may not be the strikeout pitcher that he used to be, but he has developed a change-up over the years with that pitch rated 101 on Stuff+ this season, effectively keeping batters off-balance. Add in a great Location+ of 113 and it is not surprising that he has raised his soft contact rate significantly to 19.4% from 14.1% last year.
And Paddack also has a great bullpen to support him with that unit ranked second in the league in xFIP at 3.54.
The Pick
In this battle of young vs. old, Gordon has the tools and metrics for positive regression to his ERA, while Paddack has been amazingly consistent since his rough first start. Then add two very good bullpens and bet on the Under in Daikin Park on Friday night.
Predicted Score: Astros 3 – Twins 2
MLB Pick: Twins/Astros Under 8 (-110) at Bookmaker (visit our Bookmaker Review)
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
