MLB Best Bets for June 11: Scoring Scarcity in Kansas City Wednesday
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LT Profits
- June 11, 2025
Top MLB Pick: Yankees/Royals Under 9 (-120) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
We nailed the 3-0 sweep on Friday at the online sportsbooks, including an underdog winner at odds of +131, bringing us to a solid 41-24-1 in our last 66 Major League Baseball picks. We now return on Wednesday to another full 15-game slate of MLB betting matchups with every team in action. And we again have the three best bets that we feel have the most betting value at the current MLB odds available.
These best bets are based mostly on our proprietary model, with all three of our selections for Wednesday being totals, consisting of two Unders and one Over.
And if you’re looking for more value picks, make sure to take a look at our YouTube channel for more daily betting advice for today, featuring the Rays vs. Red Sox and Giants vs. Rockies games.
Washington Nationals vs. New York Mets
Wednesday, June 11, 2025 – 07:10 PM EDT at Citi Field
We are looking for an abundance of scoring in Flushing on Wednesday, prompting us to support the Over when Jake Irvin and the Nationals pay a visit to David Peterson and the Mets.
Not Missing Many Bats
While we get that Irvin is 5-2 while pitching for a sub-.500 team, we do not think that the record is deserved with a 4.02 ERA and a noticeably worse 4.56 xFIP. He has been aided by a .258 BABIP that has masked the fact that he has pitched to a lot of contact with much of it hard.
Jake is not a hard thrower with a modest 92.1 MPH fastball rated 95 on Stuff+, and while he has never been a big strikeout guy, that K-Rate is a disturbingly low 5.74/9 this season. Moreover, that figure is validated by a just as puny swinging strike rate of 7.1%, down from 9.9% last year. And as mentioned, most of that extra contact had been hard with Irvin owning a weak soft/hard contact ratio of 14.9% / 32.5%.
He cannot count on much support from a dismal Washington bullpen either, as that unit ranks 29th out of 30 Major League teams in both xFIP (4.61) and ERA (5.81). It also hurts to be facing a Mets offense ranked fifth in baseball in wRC+ vs. right-handers at 117, as well as fifth in OPS against them at .763.
Don’t Believe the ERA
The southpaw Peterson comes in with a 4-2 mark and a 2.80 ERA, but we are rather dubious about that ERA being sustainable, even after posting a 2.90 ERA over 121 innings last year. You see, his xFIP last season of 4.10 was considerably worse than the ERA, and we think he again has rather suspect peripherals this year pointing to pending regression.
For starters, his overall Stuff+ of 90 is not what you would expect from a pitcher with an ERA below 3.00, with his fastball Stuff+ of 78 especially concerning. His decent strikeout rate of 8.28/9 comes with a career low swinging strike rate of 10.2%, pointing to a pending decline there, and his walk rate remains rather high at 3.18/9. Add in a 32.4% hard contact rate and we can only see the ERA going up over time.
The Pick
In a nutshell, we have a high hard-contact starting pitcher here in Irvin with a terrible bullpen behind him facing a very good offense, and a starter in Peterson whose metrics do not support the ERA. This sounds like a great combination for us to bet on the Over in Citi Field.
Predicted Score: Mets 6 – Nationals 5
MLB Pick: Nationals/Mets Over 8.5 (-110) at Bookmaker (visit our Bookmaker Review)
Texas Rangers vs. Minnesota Twins
Wednesday, June 11, 2025 – 07:40 PM EDT at Target Field
We do not expect a lot of scoring in Minnesota on Wednesday, so we are betting on the Under when Jack Leiter and the Rangers visit David Festa and the Twins.
Good Last 5 Starts
Leiter has managed to post a winning 4-2 record through 10 starts despite pitching for a struggling offense, thanks to a spiffy 3.48 ERA through 51.2 innings. Moreover, he has now allowed three runs or less in five straight starts after limiting the Rays to one run and three hits in Tampa on Thursday in an unfortunate no-decision.
That makes eight times in those 10 starts that Jack has allowed three runs or less, and he allowed four runs on another occasion, leaving only one start where he was truly hit hard. He quietly has a 110 overall Stuff+ with four pitches out of his vast five-pitch arsenal graded over 100, led by a hefty 124 rating on his fastball, which is averaging a career best 97.4 MPH while topping out over 100 MPH on occasion.
Leiter has always had an elite fastball, but bettering 100 in Stuff+ on three secondary pitches has made him more of a “pitcher” while still retaining the ability to blow batters away. That has been a major key to his improved consistency this season.
Facing a Weak Offense Helps
Festa is making his fifth start of the season, and he is an ordinary 0-1 with a 5.40 ERA thus far. However, he has been unlucky with a .357 BABIP allowed, which combined with an excellent strikeout rate of 11.34/9 through 16.2 innings has led to a better 3.99 xFIP. He has also lowered his hard-contact rate from a disturbing 33.1% as a rookie last season to 28.9% this year.
While David’s strikeout rate is very high, so is his walk rate at an unsightly 3.78/9. This has resulted in elevated pitch counts that have prevented him from working deeply into games, averaging just a shade over four innings per start. That is not necessarily a bad thing when having a Minnesota bullpen with the best xFIP in the Major Leagues at 3.45 for support.
Moreover, Festa and that bullpen will be facing one of the worst offenses in baseball. Starting with the basics, Texas ranks 28th out of 30 teams in team batting average at .225 overall and 27th in runs scored. And metrically, the Rangers are 27th in wRC+ against right-handed pitching at 87 (13% below average).
The Pick
So, what we have here is a starting pitcher in Leiter having his best season in the majors so far, one in Festa that has shown some improvement in his second season and is facing a poor offense, and an excellent Minnesota bullpen.
All of that has us going Under in Target Field on Wednesday.
Predicted Score: Twins 4 – Rangers 2
MLB Pick: Rangers/Twins Under 8.5 (-103) at Heritage Sports (visit our Heritage Sports Review)
New York Yankees vs. Kansas City Royals
Wednesday, June 11, 2025 – 07:40 PM EDT at Kauffman Stadium
We are looking for a nice pitching duel in Kauffman Stadium on Wednesday night, which has us backing the Under when Kris Bubic and the Royals host Clarke Schmidt and the Yankees.
Best Form after Tommy John
Bubic had Tommy John surgery in 2023, and the Royals were careful with him last year when he returned, limiting him to only 30.1 innings out of the bullpen. He did come back with improved velocity, which often happens following Tommy John, resulting in a 2.67 ERA and a whopping 11.57/9 strikeout rate in those 30.1 frames.
Kris is now back in the starting rotation this year and is in the midst of his best season in the majors. He probably deserves better than a 5-3 record, as he currently leads the Major Leagues in ERA at a minuscule 1.43 through 12 starts covering 75.1 innings! While his strikeout rate is not as high as last year when he was able to let loose out of the pen, it is still a very good 9.44/9 while needing to conserve more energy as a starter.
His excellent swinging strike rate of 14.6% remains basically on par with his 14.8% last year, and batters are not getting good swings even when making contact, given his outstanding soft/hard contact ratio of 23.6% / 24.1%. Thus, the metrics are there to suggest Bubic’s great season so far is not a fluke.
Nice Strikeout Potential
Clarke comes off a career year last season where he posted a 2.85 ERA, and we expected a lot of regression this year. And he is in fact 2-3 with a 4.04 ERA thus far. However, his xFIP of 3.97 is not far off his 3.92 mark from last season and he is continuing his improved strikeout rate from last year.
That K-Rate currently stands at a solid 9.18/9, and believe it or not, he has been a bit unlucky in that regard given his career best swinging strike rate of 12.8%. He has also lowered his hard-contact rate to 25.6% from 28.1% during his career season last year, so while he may not be as good as his ERA in 2024, he does seem genuinely improved compared to his four Major League seasons prior to that.
Schmidt also now gets to face a disappointing Kansas City offense ranked 26th in the majors in wRC+ vs. right-handers at 90, a figure that rather shockingly drops to 79 here at home.
The Pick
So, Bubic has been one of the best pitchers in baseball this season, with his record being held back by poor offense, and an improving Schmidt gets to face that said offense. Bet on the Under in Kansas City in this spot.
Predicted Score: Royals 4 – Yankees 3
MLB Pick: Yankees/Royals Under 9 (-120) at BetOnline
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
