MLB Pick: Aaron Judge Under 0.5 Total Hits (+175) at Bovada (visit our Bovada Review)
Aaron Judge is mashing it for the New York Yankees, so take the contrary Under for Sunday’s MLB props when they visit the L.A. Dodgers.
Before you lock in your wagers, let’s dive into the latest odds and top prop bets across the top sportsbooks.
New York Yankees vs. Los Angeles Dodgers
Sunday, June 01, 2025 – 07:10 PM EDT at Dodger Stadium
Aaron Judge is one heck of a ballplayer. But is he the very best hitter who ever lived? Judge is putting up historic numbers at the plate for the New York Yankees (35-21, plus-2.73 betting units at press time), the kind of numbers that make bettors swoon:
- BA .392
- OBP .486
- SLG .750
- OPS 1.236
- wRC+ 240
There’s only one logical response for your baseball picks: Take the Under for Sunday’s Aaron Judge props. Compared to some of our colleagues in the quant division, we’re less likely to hand-wave hot and cold streaks here at the ranch; still, it’s highly unlikely Judge will sustain this performance level as we get deeper into the 2025 MLB regular season. Grab that value on the dark side while the betting public is still pounding the Over.
What About the Dodgers?
Yes, there’s another team in Sunday’s matchup – and they happen to be the defending champions, having defeated the Yankees 4-1 in the 2024 World Series. The Dodgers (35-22, minus-1.65 betting units) might have some value here as early –165 home faves on the MLB odds board at BetOnline. They did beat New York 8-5 in Friday’s opener for this three-game series, cashing in at +120 with Tony Gonsolin on the mound.
That’s the betting value we were hoping to capture in Gonsolin’s last start versus the New York Mets. Good luck trying to squeeze the same edge out of Yoshinobu Yamamoto (2.66 xFIP). His key numbers look remarkably the same as his 2024 “rookie” campaign, but his BABIP against has fallen from .305 to .228, leading naturally to more ground outs and lowering his ERA from 3.00 to 1.97. Yamamoto’s “true” ERA is probably somewhere in between.
Will Aaron Judge Get His Revenge?
Maybe. Judge has dealt with Yamamoto on two separate occasions, once during the 2024 regular season and again in Game 2 of the World Series; Judge hit a combined 1-for-5 (a double) with one walk and two strikeouts, for a pedestrian .733 OPS.
The rest of the team did much worse. Including Judge, current Yankees are 3-for-24 lifetime off Yamamoto (.327 OPS), that Judge double being the only extra-base hit. Maybe they’ll do a bit better this Sunday, having had a chance to see Yamamoto and what he’s capable of in the big leagues.
Then again, it’s almost impossible for Judge himself to elevate his game any further. That 1.236 OPS would rank No. 27 in MLB history if it held up for an entire season, but his 240 wRC+ would be a new record, beating the 230 wRC+ that Barry Bonds put up for the 2001 San Francisco Giants. Stats are just numbers, of course, but wRC+ is the gold standard these days – we trust it more than OPS for baseball betting purposes.
Even more telling, Judge has posted a remarkably high .460 BABIP in 2025 through 56 games played. Those balls in play aren’t in much danger of finding any gloves when Judge goes yard, as he is wont to do (19 HR thus far), but he’s still way above his career BABIP of .351. All rise for the regression monsters.
The Pick
We don’t have an official starter due up for the Yankees yet, although the word on the street is that Ryan Yarbrough (3.74 xFIP) will take the bump for New York. Let’s avoid all that and focus on fading Judge for Sunday’s MLB props – specifically Total Hits, since that’s more prone to regression than his home runs. Bet accordingly, and may the sphere be with you.
MLB Pick: Aaron Judge Under 0.5 Total Hits (+175) at Bovada
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
