MLB Best Bets for April 30: Pirates Make Cubs Walk the Plank as Big Dogs
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LT Profits
- April 30, 2025
Top MLB Pick: Pirates ML (+153) at Bookmaker (visit our Bookmaker Review)
We are still a very solid 11-5 in our last 16 Major League Baseball picks even after a 1-2 night on Tuesday. We now return to a huge 16-game slate of MLB betting matchups for Wednesday that includes a doubleheader. We again have the three plays that we feel have the most betting value at the current MLB odds available.
These best bets are based mostly on our proprietary model, with our three Wednesday selections all being sides including two value underdogs. The first pitch for our first play tonight is at 6:10 PM EDT.
Minnesota Twins vs. Cleveland Guardians
Wednesday, April 30, 2025 – 06:10 PM EDT at Progressive Field
While we have a lot of respect for Pablo Lopez of the Twins, we feel that Luis Ortiz of the Guardians is a bit underrated. Thus, we are backing Cleveland as home underdogs on Wednesday.
Deceptive ERA
Luis Ortiz is in his first season with the Guardians after coming over from the Pirates, and he comes in at 2-3 with a lofty 5.96 ERA through 25.2 innings. However, the xFIP is much better at 3.90. And since a rough Cleveland debut where he allowed seven runs in 4.2 innings, he has posted a 3.30 xFIP with an impressive strikeout rate of 12.43/9 over his last four starts, raising that K-Rare for the season to 10.87/9.
We like Luis’s arsenal as he throws five different pitches, with his fastball currently at a career high 96.7 MPH. More importantly, he has three other pitches rated 100 or better on Stuff+, led by his sinker rated 109 and slider at 107. Thus, we do not think the high strikeout rate is a mirage as he has a career high swinging strike rate of 13.1%, and he has also improved his groundball rate to 44.4% from 38.7% last season.
That combination of strikeouts and groundballs have us rather high on Ortiz right now, and we also see the ERA going down once his rather unlucky .324 BABIP and 66.9% strand rate stabilize.
Overpriced?
As for Pablo Lopez, as we were high on him coming into the year and he has posted a 2.08 ERA so far while going 2-1 through four starts. The problem for us here is that while Lopez has a considerably better ERA, we do not see enough separation in the peripherals of these pitchers for the Twins to be decided road favorites, especially while some declining metrics.
In fact, unlike Ortiz, Lopez has a negative ERA/xFIP variance with the latter figure at 3.52. And while Pablo has a nice strikeout rate of 8.31/9, even that figure is more than two batters per nine innings lower than Ortiz. Moreover, Stuff+ is also a bit skeptical about Lopez with an overall rating of 94, which is lower than expected for a pitcher so highly regarded.
That may have to do with his velocity being slightly down across the board, leading to a noticeable drop in his swinging strike rate to 10.7% from 12.9% last year.
While we still like Lopez, those negative-trending metrics are cause for concern. Meanwhile, we see positive regression on the way for Ortiz, that has us betting on the Guardians as home underdogs on Wednesday.
Predicted Score: Guardians 4 – Twins 2
MLB Pick: Guardians ML (+112) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
New York Yankees vs. Baltimore Orioles
Wednesday, April 30, 2025 – 06:35 PM EDT at Oriole Park at Camden Yards
The Orioles and Yankees split the first two games of this three-game series with the Yankees winning in a rout 15-3 last night. We are betting on Baltimore to prevail at home in the rubber game of this series on Wednesday with Cade Povich hosting Carlos Carrasco.
Just About Done
We feel that the 38-year-old Carlos Carrasco is nearing the end of his long Major League career, even after pitching his best game of the season on Friday. Sure, he tossed five scoreless innings against the Blue Jays in that start, but he still earned a single-game xFIP of just 4.90 for that effort with only two strikeouts against two walks. Even more noteworthy was his velocity averaged 91.0 MPH in that game, noticeably lower than the 92.6 MPH in his previous start.
Carlos is 2-1 in his first year with the Yankees, but with a 5.26 ERA and 4.74 xFIP. This comes after posting a 5.64 ERA and 4.18 xFIP for the Guardians last season and a 6.80 ERA and 4.93 xFIP for the Mets the year before. His current average velocity of 91.3 MPH is a career-low and he is not missing many bats with his swinging strike rate continuing its annual decline, now down to a paltry 8.5% from 10.2% last year. Also, his hard-contact rate is a career high 37,3%.
We feel safe in saying that Carrasco’s career is reaching its end, and his extremely low overall Stuff+ this season of 82 (67 for his fastball) only helps support that belief.
Not Great, Still Better
Now, Cade Povich is not a world-beater by any means, as he comes in at 1-2 with a 5.04 ERA. However, we still grade him out better than Carrasco, especially with his xFIP nearly a full run lower than his ERA at 4.08. Moreover, he has actually allowed two earned runs or less in three of his five starts and three earned runs in another outing, with the ERA skewed by the one rough effort where he allowed seven runs.
Cade has been unlucky with a .385 BABIP allowed, further skewing the ERA, and he has a good strikeout rate of 8.28/9. And when he is not striking people out, he also has a very good soft/hard contact ratio of 23.2% / 28.0%. This is clearly a pitcher that is better than his ERA, with the unlucky BABIP offsetting some positive factors.
In a nutshell, while both these starters have high ERAs, Carrasco’s is more deserved while Povich at least has some positive metrics that point to expected improvement. This has us backing the Orioles in Camden Yards on Wednesday.
Predicted Score: Orioles 6 – Yankees 4
MLB Pick: Orioles ML (-106) at Heritage Sports (visit our Heritage Sports Review)
Chicago Cubs vs. Pittsburgh Pirates
Wednesday, April 30, 2025 – 06:40 PM EDT at PNC Park
We are calling for an upset and supporting Carmen Mlodzinski and the Pirates as big home underdogs when they host Matthew Boyd and the Cubs on Wednesday.
Been Injury Prone
The veteran southpaw Matthew Boyd is now 34 years old and has spent some time on the injured list every year since 2021, most significantly last season when he made just eight starts for the Guardians. Now in his first season with the Cubs, he has been healthy so far while going 2-2 with a nice 2.54 ERA through five starts covering 26.1 innings.
Do not trust that ERA though as his xFIP is over two runs higher at an unsightly 4.56. Matthew has been lucky with a strand rate of 81.5% despite a mediocre at best K/BB ratio of 7.62/3.18 per nine innings with that K-Rate being at its lowest point since 2017. He also has a low groundball rate of 32.6% while pitching to more contact than ever, with his swinging strike rate now in the single digits for the first time since 2016 at 9.5%, down from 13.9% just last year!
 Boyd is simply no longer the pitcher he once was, and his current peripherals certainly do not support the very fortunate ERA.
Better Than He Looks
Carmen Mlodzinski has been the opposite of Boyd when it comes to luck. He comes in at 1-3 with an ugly 6.95 ERA after posting ERAs of 2.25 and 3.38 in his first two Major League seasons respectively over 75 total appearances as both a starter and reliever. However, things are not as they seem as he actually has the better xFIP of these two starters this year at 3.89, which is always a nice trait for a big underdog.
The ERA is skewed heavily by the Luck Stats, with Carmen yielding a very high .387 BABIP while owning a very low 61.8% strand rate. He is generating groundballs at an excellent 50.6% rate with a sinker rated 109 on Stuff+, and that is not his only plus pitch with his slider at 106. That mix has also led to a strong soft/hard contact ratio of 20.8% / 27.3% that belies the ERA.
In a nutshell, this is our favorite kind of matchup between two pitchers with opposite regressions expected. Mlodzinski has the stronger peripherals of the starters despite owning the much higher ERA, so we are looking for some correction in this spot and betting on the Pirates at a large overlay underdog price.
Predicted Score: Pirates 5 – Cubs 3
MLB Pick: Pirates ML (+153) at Bookmaker
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
