MLB Best Bets for May 24: The Curious Case of Tony Gonsolin
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Jason Lake
- May 23, 2025
MLB Pick: Dodgers ML (+100) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
They might be one of the very best teams in Major League Baseball, but something doesn’t look quite right with the Los Angeles Dodgers (31-19, minus-1.07 betting units at press time). Even before the reigning World Series champions dropped that three-game set to the L.A. Angels last week, the Dodgers were playing .500 ball through most of May.
The reason is obvious: injuries, especially to their pitching staff. But the champs will be in good hands this Saturday when Tony Gonsolin takes the mound versus the New York Mets (30-20, plus-3.17 units). Gonsolin might even be one of the few starters L.A. has left who can deliver some betting value for our baseball picks; the Dodgers have opened as +100 road dogs at BetOnline, just the sixth time all year we’ve seen that plus sign on the MLB odds board.
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. New York Mets
Saturday, May 24, 2025 – 7:15 PM EDT at Citi Field
Who Is Tony Gonsolin?
In case you’re new to baseball betting, Gonsolin was one of L.A.’s most promising prospects, ranked third among their “2020 Graduates” at FanGraphs. And he was just starting to deliver on that promise when he had to press the Pause button; after making the National League All-Star team in 2022, Gonsolin underwent Tommy John surgery in August 2023, and missed the entire 2024 campaign.
If that weren’t enough, Gonsolin hurt his back in spring training and didn’t make his 2025 debut until April 30. The Dodgers are only 2-2 in his four starts (also splitting the totals at 2-2) for a loss of 0.80 units, but Gonsolin has a personal 2-0 record with a 3.77 xFIP, recovering nicely after that nightmare 2023 season (5.25 xFIP).
Who’s Pitching for the Mets?
David Peterson is due up for New York, the nominal No. 3 starter and the only lefty in their rotation. He’s another fine pitcher from the Class of 2020 with a 3.56 xFIP, although not as fine as his 2.86 ERA might suggest. The Mets are 6-3 in Peterson’s nine starts (4-4-1 against the total) for a profit of 1.22 units, but Peterson himself is 2-2.
Regression could hit Saturday’s matchup from several angles. New York’s bullpen ranks No. 3 overall on the FanGraphs WAR charts, so we can’t just blame dumb luck for the Mets going 4-1 in Peterson’s five no-decisions. On the flip side, the No. 7-ranked Dodgers bullpen is full of holes right now, so maybe their 0-2 record in Gonsolin’s NDs isn’t all a mirage.
Given the inherent betting value we see in Gonsolin’s right arm, we’re willing to look past some of those bullpen issues. Current Mets hitters have a combined .603 lifetime OPS off Gonsolin, going 8-for-39 with just two walks and one home run. If you’re going to pick any Met to do damage on Saturday’s MLB props, make it Juan Soto (4-for-12, .917 OPS), who stroked the only other two extra-base hits among those eight.
As for Peterson, check this out: Current Dodgers are 37-for-93 lifetime with seven homers and a 1.133 OPS. That’s even better than the top two L.A. hitters are doing overall this year, namely Freddie Freeman (1.087 OPS) and Shohei Ohtani (1.053 OPS).
The Pick
Weather isn’t likely to play much of a role this Saturday, with partly cloudy skies in the forecast and temperatures in the low 60s. We might be more worried about the Dodgers in matchups where they have to rely on untested starters while Blake Snell and Tyler Glasnow are out with shoulder injuries; Gonsolin is not one of those, so bet accordingly, and may the sphere be with you.
MLB Pick: Dodgers ML (+100) at BetOnline
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
