MLB Pick: Over 9 (-110) at Bookmaker (visit our Bookmaker Review)
They say age is just a number. It’s a nice thought, but no: Most things in life get more difficult once you reach the second act of your life. If you’re an athlete, experience will help you move through time and space more efficiently than ever before, but your speed and strength will diminish, and you’ll run out of gas sooner.
With that in mind, get out the oxygen masks for Saturday’s Battle of Los Angeles. Clayton Kershaw (age 37) will take the mound for the L.A. Dodgers as they welcome Tyler Anderson (age 35) and the L.A. Angels to Chavez Ravine; the fine folks at Bookmaker have a total of nine runs on the MLB odds board for this matchup, with each side priced at -110. It feels a bit weird to recommend the Over for a game on the West Coast, but that’s where the betting value is at press time.
Los Angeles Angels vs. Los Angeles Dodgers
Saturday, May 17, 2025 – 9:10 PM EDT at Dodger Stadium
Is Clayton Kershaw Washed Up?
Maybe. People have been asking this question for a while now, but Kershaw managed to weather the storm, making the All-Star team in 2022 and 2023 despite his fastball dipping to 90 mph. The three-time National League Cy Young winner (and 2014 NL MVP) adjusted by throwing his slider more often, and by toying with the occasional splitter and sinker.
Unfortunately for Kershaw, the injuries have mounted as he’s grown older. Things really started going sideways with his shoulder just before the 2023 All-Star Game; Kershaw had surgery that November, came back in July 2024, and made seven starts before sitting out the last month with a bone spur in his left big toe.
It wasn’t a total disaster last year, but Kershaw did post a career-worst 4.50 ERA and 4.33 xFIP – albeit with a .354 BABIP allowed and 63.3% of runners left stranded, also career extremes. If he weren’t already this old, and making his first start of the 2025 campaign after more offseason surgery on his toe and his left knee, we might be tempted to put the Dodgers (29-15, plus-1.79 betting units at press time) in our baseball picks.
Is Tyler Anderson Really This Good?
Probably not. Anderson may have earned his second All-Star nomination last year, but Kershaw’s former teammate enjoyed very good luck both times he made the Mid-Summer Classic:
- 2022: 2.57 ERA, 4.10 xFIP
- 2024: 3.81 ERA, 4.85 xFIP
It’s more of the same this year: Anderson has a 2.58 ERA and a 4.74 xFIP after eight starts, with a tiny .197 BABIP against and 84.2% of runners left on base. The Angels (17-25, minus-4.54 units) are 6-2 in those eight starts, with the totals split at 4-4; each of Anderson’s last three appearances went Over, thanks to some unusually heavy hitting from the No. 27-ranked lineup on the FanGraphs WAR charts.
Again, if we weren’t so concerned about Kershaw’s frailty, we might want to fade the Halos in this situation, given the regression we can expect for Anderson’s run support and his peripheral stats. But the Dodgers can do their part to cash in the Over; they have the No. 2-ranked batting order by WAR, and the Angels have the worst bullpen in the majors according to said category.
The Pick
If you’re still worried about that healthy West Coast air keeping the scores low, here’s one more piece of good news: Saturday’s forecast calls for light winds of 10 mph blowing straight towards center field. Every little bit helps; bet accordingly, and may the sphere be with you.
MLB Pick: Over 9 (-110) at Bookmaker
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
