MLB Pick: Rangers ML (-120) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
Arlington is located in the Mid-Cities region between Dallas and Fort Worth, which is perfect, because the Texas Rangers (22-21, minus-2.26 betting units at press time) are about to host the Houston Astros (21-20, minus-2.65 units) in the middest matchup on Thursday’s MLB odds board.
Or at least it should be on the odds board by the time you read this. It has yet to be confirmed on the official MLB website, but The Athletic projects Jacob deGrom (3.36 xFIP) to start for the Rangers; Hunter Brown (2.64 xFIP) is officially due up for Houston. Nothing mid about those guys.
It’s the hitting where both of these teams could use some help. And it’s also where we find our betting value for Thursday’s contest, once we dig deep and peel back the layers.
Houston Astros vs. Texas Rangers
Thursday, May 15, 2025 – 8:05 PM EDT at Globe Life Field
What Happened to the Rangers?
They stopped hitting. FanGraphs has Texas ranked No. 21 overall in hitting WAR (Wins Above Replacement), exactly where they were last year, and down from second in 2023 when they finally won their first World Series title.
Ah, but let’s look at those pesky BABIP (Batting Average on Balls in Play) numbers for each season:
- 2023: .310 (No. 3)
- 2024: .279 (No. 28)
- 2025: .271 (No. 28)
As longtime readers of this space will be aware, BABIP is one of those peripheral stats we use to suss out the effects of dumb luck on team success. The theory goes that baseball players – both hitters and pitchers – have little control over this number, and that BABIP should regress to the mean over time.
Were the 2023 Texas Rangers indeed a mirage? Maybe, but at the same stroke, they’re probably not as bad at the plate as their results thus far would suggest – although not having SS Corey Seager (143 wRC+, hamstring) in the lineup won’t help their cause Thursday.
What Happened to the Astros?
While injuries and sheer randomness have kept the Rangers from being all that they can be, Houston’s problems have more to do with roster turnover. 3B Alex Bregman (161 wRC+ for Boston) is gone, leaving the Astros with a considerable void in their No. 13-ranked batting order by FanGraphs WAR.
Regression won’t save them, either. Houston ranks ninth in the majors with a .301 BABIP, maybe 10-15 points higher than you’d expect if this really boils down to dumb luck. And speaking of peripheral stats, as impressively as Brown has pitched this year, his 1.48 ERA is supported by a .269 BABIP against, with 82.2% of his runners left stranded – up from a career average of 74.6%.
Meanwhile, if he does pitch Thursday, deGrom is rounding into form at just the right time for our baseball picks. After missing most of 2024 following Tommy John surgery, deGrom has led the Rangers to paydirt in each of his last three starts, allowing a combined three earned runs across 16 innings of work. Buyer beware: there could be some negative regression here as well, given deGrom’s .257 BABIP against and 90.9% strand rate.
The Pick
Houston has one more disadvantage to overcome in this matchup: They’ll be playing on zero days of rest after hosting the Kansas City Royals the previous night. It’s only a short trip, just 257 miles, but athletes are creatures of habit, and baseball players doubly so. Thursdays (and Mondays) are usually “travel days” on the MLB schedule; the Rangers also play Wednesday, but they get to host the Colorado Rockies, so their routines won’t be impacted to the same degree. Bet accordingly.
MLB Pick: Rangers ML (-120) at BetOnline
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
