No. 11 Michigan State has been one of the big surprises of this college football season, but the Spartans could be in the upset territory in Big Ten action on Saturday at Rutgers. Which way to lean at BMR’s top-rated sportsbooks?
Michigan State Spartans vs. Rutgers Scarlet Knights
Saturday, October 9, 2021 – 12:00 PM EDT at SHI Stadium
It’s a great early Saturday of college football action this week with a total of seven ranked schools kicking off in games at noon ET. That includes No. 11 Michigan State at Rutgers in Big Ten action, with the Big Ten Network having the telecast.
The Spartans lead the all-time series 8-4 and are 4-1 in Piscataway, N.J. Last year in East Lansing, Michigan State was a 9.5-point favorite at BMR’s top-rated books but beaten 38-27 – it should be noted that Sparty is miles better this year, and it was Rutgers’ first Big Ten victory since 2017. The Scarlet Knights never trailed and limited the Spartans to just one trip inside the red zone. Rutgers scored 21 points off a whopping seven takeaways. Those were the most takeaways for Rutgers since 2000.
Noah Vedral started at QB for Rutgers (still there) and was 18-for-29 for 169 yards with a TD and a pick while rushing for a score. Isaiah Pacheco (also still around) rushed for two scores. Rocky Lombardi, now at Northern Illinois, threw for 319 yards and three scores but two picks for Michigan State. That was the Spartans head coaching debut of Mel Tucker. The road team is 4-0 ATS on the NCAAF odds in the past four meetings.
Sparty Shocking Many Behind Walker
Second-year coach Mel Tucker is easily the Big Ten Coach of the Year favorite as Michigan State was 2-5 in his first season but 5-0 this year and No. 11 in the latest AP Top 25. It marks the highest MSU has been ranked since the 2018 preseason poll and the first time that Sparty is 5-0 since 2015. Tucker is just the second coach in school history to begin his second season at MSU 5-0.
Last week, Michigan State was a 10.5-point home favorite on NCAAF odds in a non-conference game vs. Western Kentucky and won 48-31, a season-high in points scored but also allowed. Sparty had 519 yards but allowed 560.
One of the best transfers in the nation this year has been MSU running back Kenneth Walker III from Wake Forest. He had 24 carries for 126 yards and scored three touchdowns vs. WKU and leads the nation with 680 yards rushing and also is first in yards after contact (515) and second with 19 rushes of 10-plus yards. QB Payton Thorne completed 20-of-30 passes for a career-high 327 yards and one touchdown while also rushing for a score.
Receiver Jayden Reed finished the game with 285 all-purpose yards (127 and a TD receiving), the seventh-highest single-game total in school history. Reed is No. 1 nationally in all-purpose yards (176.6 ypg) and has two punt-return TDs already, including one vs. WKU. It was the third time this season that MSU had more than 500 yards of total offense.
Graduate senior Matt Coghlin is one of the better kickers in the nation and needs one field goal to become the school’s all-time leader in FGs made. He’s tied with Brett Swenson (2006-09) with 71 career field goals. The Spartans are 5-0 ATS at BMR’s top-rated books in their past five as road favorites.
Will Knights Score Thirteen Points Again?
Rutgers (3-2) is much more competitive under Greg Schiano but has been held to 13 points exactly in back-to-back losses to Michigan and Ohio State – certainly no shame in losing to those programs. Defensively, the Knights hadn’t allowed more than 20 points until the Buckeyes hung 52 the last Saturday. The nation’s No. 2 offense scored on its first six possessions.
On the bright side, Rutgers tied Ohio State 7-7 in the second half, but the game was long over by then. Scarlet Knights QB Noah Vedral completed 16-of-26 passes for 152 yards, which included a season-long 75-yard touchdown pass to wide receiver Aron Cruickshank. Vedral was picked three times. Starting wide receiver Bo Melton and semi-starting left tackle Raiqwon O’Neal both left the Ohio State game early with injuries. Not clear if they will play here.
This is a well-coached team as Rutgers ranks first nationally in both the fewest penalties against per game (3.6) and net punting (47.7). It also has not surrendered a point in the fourth quarter this season.
Saturday will be the second time in program history that Rutgers will face three straight-ranked opponents and it’s also a homecoming. The Knights are 53-32-1 all-time on homecoming. They have nine all-time wins over AP-ranked opponents, including four under Schiano. The last came in 2009.
Rutgers is 1-5 ATS on the NCAAF odds in its past six as a home underdog. This will be close for a while, but Sparty will pull away in the second half and cover.
NCAAF Pick: Michigan State -5 (-110) with Bovada (visit our Bovada Review)
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
